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February to Forget Volume 2 - 2020


TalcottWx
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45 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

As long as it is extremely active when I go out to OK at the end of May I will take 40's and 50's into July...I would make that trade. 

We hope you get sucked into an ef5 and sent straight to heaven...just spiritually, of course. We want you alive and safely returned to us.

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17 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s room for some CC reference in these threads but it honestly shouldn’t be the main topic....our weather is overwhelmingly dominated by natural variation on the scales we generally discuss in here...which is weeks and months.

There’s a reason places still get their coldest months on record even in today’s climate...and it’s not because of a warmer world either. It’s because natural variation can still overwhelm the underlying warming trend. 

If we want to debate in-depth how much CC contributed to a specific pattern, I think it’s best discussed in a different thread as these types of attribution studies are not very robust yet in the literature. The climate change signals show up on larger scales and larger samples. Polar jet in the means has migrated a half degree latitude north per the literature? Sure, that affects things. But that is a mean and not the same everywhere. In the CONUS it’s been less than that...mostly because we’ve had the trend higher in the N PAC. So therefore downstream there is a reaction to that. Yet, sometimes that trend is bucked...AK had their coldest January on record in 2012 and 13th coldest this year...certainly no thanks to a more northern PJ in the North Pacific. It was in spite of that trend. 

Attribution studies are changing all the time too...what was once the hot topic a few years prior can become obsolete. A good example is the changing literature on the arctic region. It was once thought that climate change would force more +NAO/+AO patterns. Then when we went through a remarkable period of -NAO/AO in the 2000s and early 2010s, the hot idea in the literature turned to arctic amplification and sea ice loss being the driver of arctic blocking. 

Now that idea has been challenged again in recent publications. Perhaps in response to more +AO patterns recently. 

I’m not mentioning this to discredit the science, but merely to point out the attribution studies to particular patterns are not robustly settled in the literature. It’s being debated. So we have to be careful about passing off the speculative as fact. 

There are great debates to be had on the subject...how does a larger scale trend affect us in the CONUS or New England? But I don’t want to turn the pattern thread into these all the time when people are mostly here to discuss the weather prospects in this month. 

 

Honestly ... I jumped into the middle of an on-going conversation.    Scott's talking about it triggering this or that, but I was not the source or start for that snow vs CC. wtf man 

Fact of that matter is, this Hadley Cell expansion stuff is real. It is empirical, it is researched and continues to be so, and the implications of those studies absolutely is going to rub some folks the wrong way.  I can't do anything about that. And, if this social-media platform needs objective usefulness, we have to bring real topical science to bear. I think when this particular rendition split off the culture was never intended to be the same - that much is clear.  Once we started registering penny prophet per frame rates and mouse click ... heh. My point is heading toward wondering if that's even possible here in this vision.   

Be that as it may, I don't care to specifically get into why people get rubbed the wrong way - there's absolutely no way to positively influence one's political agenda, much less 'personal' agenda, amidst a public-anonymity of cadence-less, expression devoid Internet, and in fact, negative is so overwhelming favored there's just no usefulness to engaging.  But that vitriol that was triggered ...?  sorry that strikes me as people not liking certain realities and lashing out at objective source work.  You got some loose canons in here my friend.  

Which btw ... had nothing to do with anything other that statistical mechanics and method for scatter plotting .. but, when volatility gets to a certain tenderness merely looking at the needle will cause people to pop :) 

 

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Another cold shot in the works 

After another seemingly ugly system around 2/18. Hopefully that one trends flatter....go figure, we actually have a decent high in front of that one but then it wants to slice up through Ottawa.

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

After another seemingly ugly system around 2/18. Hopefully that one trends flatter....go figure, we actually have a decent high in front of that one but then it wants to slice up through Ottawa.

Yea that's just brutal.  NNE may be good though if that flattens a little.  Long way out

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

After another seemingly ugly system around 2/18. Hopefully that one trends flatter....go figure, we actually have a decent high in front of that one but then it wants to slice up through Ottawa.

check out wpc on that one.  They show the high.  they have pretty decent chances of snow north of the MA-NH border.  And their projections improved overnight.  Implies some kind of transfer in that set up, no?

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Just now, mahk_webstah said:

check out wpc on that one.  They show the high.  they have pretty decent chances of snow north of the MA-NH border.  And their projections improved overnight.  Implies some kind of transfer in that set up, no?

Yea that could be good qpf and high rates for you guys if it flattens just a tad

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12 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

check out wpc on that one.  They show the high.  they have pretty decent chances of snow north of the MA-NH border.  And their projections improved overnight.  Implies some kind of transfer in that set up, no?

If it trends flatter it could be a good system....hopefully it does. Today's system was originally a cutter through Ottawa too, so if this one can go flatter, then it might be more prolific with a solid high to the north.

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22 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Looks like a nice spring snow 

ending as cold rain 

trees caked 

33

This is exactly how this impressed me this morning at dawn while clearing the hood of the car and windows. Spring glop. The air really smelled more like rain, and had the faux mild appeal to it, while as you say the trees and so forth were burdened with that cake.  

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

As usually, Ukie flat as hell day 6. I don’t care what the stats say, that model Blows after day 5.

LOL ... 

you know it's tru tho.  The euro does this too to me at times. I catch it f-ing up with all this stuff, and then the verification comes out and it's in the lead. Whaaa I could argue the ICON did better for f-sake.  jesus.  

I think what it is is that the verification is a Globally integrated scoring?   Contrasting, we are focused over N/America; maybe there is something about that handling.  I bet if someone clever created a Global color coded blue and red, bad versus good, performance... there would be a nazy blue hole over Cincinnati for D6, but the model would be salmon glory everywhere else..  

kidding to some degree -

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7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I honestly don’t kno how any snow lovers are alive and breathing in SE Areas

this is London/ Seattle weather 

 

19" here YTD, somehow. But I've learned to easily detach from investing too much time, espcially now that I'm married and have a toddler. 

This winter sucks, but winters like 06/07, 10/11, and 11/12 were worse for me because I was younger and more emotional. Being on the wrong side of a rain/snow line back then was rage inducing.  I listed 10/11 because...well look where I lived. 

And if by SE you meant like the mid atlantic, then yeah me neither. 

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