CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 20 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It would be entirely stupid to write off a winter in SNE. You can pull a bomb to lift a winter out of ratter territory even in April. It always shocks me how many folks do that and there will be a widespread 12-24” on March 14th or something.... and all the sudden many folks are 17” higher in their snowfall total and reaching normal snow on the season. It's a hostile look going forward. If anything March may be mild. So for me, it doesn't seem like much effort is needed to track anything. We all know shit can pop up, but I don't see really anything hopeful going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Dave got like 25" in the early December storm iirc. That one banded that pivoted from SNH to nrn CT got him good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If that's wxbell, then I'd chop the southern edge of that... Its not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That's typically how we get crap seasons....we miss a lot of the advisory type events that tend to add up.... ORH got smoked too but has had very little since then....ORH had over 27 inches in December, but 6 inches since then, lol. HubbDave did get more in the Dec event...I think he had over 21 or 22 inches. His area also got a few inches on some of these front enders when ORH got like 0.5" or something. So it added up to his area being around 52-53 inches. I would think it’s Hard to hold 1k airport to 6” total over approximately 6 weeks in heart of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 26 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It would be entirely stupid to write off a winter in SNE. You can pull a bomb to lift a winter out of ratter territory even in April. It always shocks me how many folks do that and there will be a widespread 12-24” on March 14th or something.... and all the sudden many folks are 17” higher in their snowfall total and reaching normal snow on the season. Lol what are the odds of said bomb going forward . Ballpark that for me . James will be waiting ...and waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I would think it’s Hard to hold 1k airport to 6” total over approximately 6 weeks in heart of winter Yea, that takes some bad luck...don't care how warm its been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Lol what are the odds of said bomb going forward . Ballpark that for me . James will be waiting ...and waiting. I’ve seen you guys pull big storms out of your asses for the past like 7 years. If you can do it in 15-16, you can do it in any winter. I’m sorry, didn’t want to disrupt your pity party lol. The chances are always small but SNE would have the highest chances of anyone given the climate frequency of these big storms lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's pretty rare to have a 20+ inch gradient between the two (especially with still a chunk of climo yet to come)....happened in '07-'08 too but at least that season was above average in both spots....so it was easier to take, haha. Not including today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I would think it’s Hard to hold 1k airport to 6” total over approximately 6 weeks in heart of winter 1980 had 0.8 inches between new years and mid February. Lol. 2007 was pretty bad too until Vday. 1989 was putrid and never got better. 1955 was really bad too...that was the all time lowest snowfall season on record. But yeah, it's not easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Lol what are the odds of said bomb going forward . Ballpark that for me . James will be waiting ...and waiting. 0.0001% 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 I didn’t realize that ORH was that much behind me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I’ve seen you guys pull big storms out of your asses for the past like 7 years. If you can do it in 15-16, you can do it in any winter. I’m sorry, didn’t want to disrupt your pity party lol. The chances are always small but SNE would have the highest chances of anyone given the climate frequency of these big storms lately. The chances are small and certainly given the look going forward so it’s a long shot . I’m sure us believing in fairly tales would be better than the current downer environment so you can enjoy your new foot of snow . I’ll enjoy the 36f rain pounding my head on Feb 10 that reminds me of the abortion that was last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: 0.0001% We’ll remember this if you guys get smoked with a rogue storm for sure. I’m with Ray, SNE isn’t done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: We’ll remember this if you guys get smoked with a rogue storm for sure. I’m with Ray, SNE isn’t done. I don’t believe it won’t snow again? Ya we probably see advisory . Whoppiefreakindo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: We’ll remember this if you guys get smoked with a rogue storm for sure. I’m with Ray, SNE isn’t done. I'm going on a hunch...I agree that the pattern looks horrible. When I make my seasonal calls, I incorporate more than just the anticipated H5 evolutions. I also take out the Kocin book and search for any of the analog years, which contributes to my slected date ranges for larger events. There is a good deal of noise involved in the sensible appeal over the course of a given seasonal evolution, so you have to attempt to account for that by referencing the past...its like a cook book with a myriad of ingredients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: We’ll remember this if you guys get smoked with a rogue storm for sure. I’m with Ray, SNE isn’t done. There are two ways to look at it. 1) aren't done, as in it will probably snow again 2) Not worth wasting time with a crap pattern. I am option 2. There are really no good things at all going forward. I've moved on from the winter, it clearly just isn't working out..and not worth the time. For those who do...I salute you. You can convince me all you want until you turn blue in the face, but eventually....you stop fooling yourself in these types of winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Not including today Most of that 25 for my area was from one storm.. if it wasnt for that this would easily be the least snowiest to date... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 On the face of it, if there was ever a candidate to end very early, its this season....but given the manner in which it began, seasons of this ilk have demonstrated a proclicity to deliver parting gifts as a homeage to the early returns back in December..this belies the ostensibly deplorable H5 evolution, but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 The end of this week will be a nice, massive FU near and south of the pike to top off the winter. Cold rain and frigid temps after. That about sums it up...cherry on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: The end of this week will be a nice, massive FU near and south of the pike to top off the winter. Cold rain and frigid temps after. That about sums it up...cherry on top. I haven't looked at that...mixed north of the pike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I haven't looked at that...mixed north of the pike? I posted the 6z Euro and you commented lol look back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: I posted the 6z Euro and you commented lol look back Auto pilot. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I haven't looked at that...mixed north of the pike? You may get an inch to start and then probably brief sleet to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There are two ways to look at it. 1) aren't done, as in it will probably snow again 2) Not worth wasting time with a crap pattern. I am option 2. There are really no good things at all going forward. I've moved on from the winter, it clearly just isn't working out..and not worth the time. For those who do...I salute you. You can convince me all you want until you turn blue in the face, but eventually....you stop fooling yourself in these types of winters. Why bother saying the same thing over and over. It's like you want to convince yourself. I would think you would banter and just stop trolling people in this or storm threads. If you think Its over then move on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Yea, probably 1-3" outside I495...blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 31 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Lol what are the odds of said bomb going forward . Ballpark that for me . James will be waiting ...and waiting. Stupid post, how the heck would anyone even know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, probably 1-3" outside I495...blah. Yeah this is basically a non-event for SNE unless it clearly trends better....I'd prob be a little more enthused on it north of Rt 2 in the interior, but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 The perennial solar min ends today ... so it begins Kevin's favorite time of the year when sunny days warm the interior of cars almost immediately more noticeable. And if there were a snow pack the eat back factor kicks into higher gear. For me this is more symbolic of the beginning of transition season .. tho obviously seldom does the winter give up without a fight .. and some years that protracts deep into March. You just have to accept inevitability on a dwindlng hope curve of ever lower probability. Probability is never 0% ... in 100 years you get 1977, May. In 1,000 yrs (say) perhaps you'll even get one in June. 20 yrs for post St Patty's Day Aprils etc... - so people wisely or stupidly set their expectations accordingly.. Those are virtuals to make the point. And the given year's tenor certainly plays into human woe-is-me factor too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: On the face of it, if there was ever a candidate to end very early, its this season....but given the manner in which it began, seasons of this ilk have demonstrated a proclicity to deliver parting gifts as a homeage to the early returns back in December..this belies the ostensibly deplorable H5 evolution, but it is what it is. Tip?? LOL! Sorry, not long enough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 It could look entirely different in a few weeks. Sure it looks like crap now, but I choose to keep an eye out for something favorable. Sue me. And it's not torture. I'll be fine without turning into an insufferable eeyore if nothing pans out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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