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WinterWxLuvr

February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

In this regime the north trend is real. Fear it.

I fear temps and rates.  Mostly temps

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There was a lot to like with the latest Euro run for our Sunday system compared to the GFS as well as the last few runs of the Euro as well.

What we are seeing is energy dropping down from the Pacific NW  with one stream to the north as well as another stream under cutting it. The northern stream is dropping into the southern portion in the middle of the country and then moving eastward picking up surface low pressure and driving it into the east. Now where and when we see the phasing between these streams will be important for where we see the track of the storm as well as rain/mix/snow for our region. 

Now if we do a comparison between the current Euro and the GFS (previous Euros were similar) the difference maker is how far south the flow they are embedded in can drop south behind the lead trough. If you compare both models you will see that the Euro drops substantially farther south then what we are seeing on the GFS. This is important as this farther south solution would favor seeing low pressure development and track farther to the south in a more favorable position for us in the east. Now what is causing this more suppressed flow in the west/central portion of the CONUS is what we see occur with the leading trough in the east. What we saw on the latest Euro is that we saw a more significant initial drop of that feature through Texas and the Gulf states which dragged the flow farther south on it's backside.

 

epsvort.gif.7e73a11dce6925792f65c9b2886f12f9.gif

 gfsvort.gif.e5aee800e3e3fed810912e30d05b1807.gif

 

 

Moving forward a day and a half we can see the results. Directly below we have the GFS and we see that the shortwave/energy has picked up the forming low in the Tennessee valley and driven it into West Virginia. It then tracks it through our region and off the coast. Not a great look for us as it would tend to drive warm air through our region as the low moves to our west. Another thing I want to add is that we are also seeing a quicker phasing of those two streams on the GFS. This quicker phasing is also allowing for the 500's to attract the surface low quicker (In fact the low is captured over WV at this time) pulling the forming low northward as well. So between the farther north initial low development and the subsequent capture we are seeing a much farther north solution then what we see on the second map below the EPS. (***Now the look below is very perilous despite what may be showing up on the snow maps. The only saving grace is it washes out the low after capture so the southerly flow gets weakened. There are so many ways that this look could go wrong vs. right that I would not feel comfortable with our chances for anything somewhat meaningful if this is what we see at showtime.)

But look at what we are seeing on the Euro. We are seeing the low forming in the deep south and then moving through OBX and then OTS. Now this look is a good one for our region, in particularly for our southern regions where the heavier precip will be confined, if only the temps can cooperate. One other thing I will note. Look at how we are seeing the energy curling and its location and where we see the low pressure. That is a very favorable look with just some minor adjustments to potentially capture the surface low in a favorable locale for strengthening it  and drawing it up the coast somewhat to get the northern portions of the region into the better precip total. This is the look I hope to see as there is some good upside potential with no where near the perils presented on the GFS.

 

 gfsvortlow.gif.28668301eef9919b7fffde9be997b0e9.gif

 

epsvortlow.gif.ad859f7b2bf2e1c874217b6d8f0c56ab.gif

 

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Nice breakdown Showme ! But I leave early for work.  What happened to 4 or 5am posts  :ph34r:

6z Euro looks to dive even a bit  deeper at hr 90 

Valid 0z Saturday 

 

PhotoPictureResizer_200204_072514268_crop_1399x2150.jpg

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WB 6z EPS Control...(Mean is not as good.) for the weekend. Only about 20-25% of individual members on Board.....stay tuned.  We are still 4.5 days out.  That means 70-75% chance of another disaster.

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-ma-total_snow_10to1-1271200.png

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I will take 3" inches of snow and enjoy every bit of it. 

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4 minutes ago, mappy said:

I will take 3" inches of snow and enjoy every bit of it. 

Yeah 3 inches in this winter sounds pretty great right about now.

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3 minutes ago, mappy said:

I will take 3" inches of snow and enjoy every bit of it. 

Someone needs to fire up the bus. Wait.  Should we be in “storm mode”? :lol:

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We need to get our priorities in order here. So much focus on a piddly snow tv system this weekend which probably wont pan out and not enough focus on Day 10+

What could possibly go wrong? ;)

gfs_asnow_neus_65.png

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11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We need to get our priorities in order here. So much focus on a piddly snow tv system this weekend which probably wont pan out and not enough focus on Day 10+

What could possibly go wrong? ;)

gfs_asnow_neus_65.png

Nothing will go wrong. The gods have started to smile on us and there’s no turning back.

I haven’t really looked at anything today but I thought that system about a week out had promise 

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5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Nothing will go wrong. The gods have started to smile on us and there’s no turning back.

I haven’t really looked at anything today but I thought that system about a week out had promise 

I like your optimism, and if right, your sacrifice won’t go unnoticed.

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37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We need to get our priorities in order here. So much focus on a piddly snow tv system this weekend which probably wont pan out and not enough focus on Day 10+

What could possibly go wrong? ;)

 

Think I have hit desperation mode. Op run where 90% of the snow comes after 12+ days, on the GFS no less, and yet I am all in. Let's reel this sucker in. :weenie:

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1 hour ago, Scraff said:

Someone needs to fire up the bus. Wait.  Should we be in “storm mode”? :lol:

nope. no storm mode needed. 

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7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

ICON much more amped leading into Sunday.

But it’s the ICON :lol:

It's a good shortwave. It's looked good from afar and now we're getting kinda close and still  looks good. Temps are the obvious red flag but if I lived in your area I wouldn't be as worried. 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's a good shortwave. It's looked good from afar and now we're getting kinda close and still  looks good. Temps are the obvious red flag but if I lived in your area I wouldn't be as worried. 

go on...

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Icon looks decent, pretty much all snow for Baltimore but rates are not terribly impressive. Still, considering how reluctant the Icon is to show anything good for us I’m cautiously optimistic. Very scientific, I know!

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

go on...

In any "normal" winter, a vort pass like this would easily drop 1-3/2-4 or even 3-6 if it juices in the short range (common). Problem is we can buy a single "normal" airmass at all this year. My early guess is someone gets 3" out of the deal and it won't be my yard. Western VA appears to be the favored location. Up along the MD line it's getting on the fringes of best lift/dynamics but will that trend for the better? Yea, probably. Can my yard get several hours of good snow and not record a half inch? Yea, probably that too. 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

In any "normal" winter, a vort pass like this would easily drop 1-3/2-4 or even 3-6 if it juices in the short range (common). Problem is we can buy a single "normal" airmass at all this year. My early guess is someone gets 3" out of the deal and it won't be my yard. Western VA appears to be the favored location. Up along the MD line it's getting on the fringes of best lift/dynamics but will that trend for the better? Yea, probably. Can my yard get several hours of good snow and not record a half inch? Yea, probably that too. 

Its for this alone I don't hold much hope around Fredericksburg. Snow TV/White Rain yes, but with the airmasses we've had, anything more than that feel like a pipe dream unless things change (here's to hoping)

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10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

In any "normal" winter, a vort pass like this would easily drop 1-3/2-4 or even 3-6 if it juices in the short range (common). Problem is we can buy a single "normal" airmass at all this year. My early guess is someone gets 3" out of the deal and it won't be my yard. Western VA appears to be the favored location. Up along the MD line it's getting on the fringes of best lift/dynamics but will that trend for the better? Yea, probably. Can my yard get several hours of good snow and not record a half inch? Yea, probably that too. 

This.  Because of the exceedingly fast flow all winter any cold air has been quick to leave.  There just isn't much left to work with so a normally good vort pass then has to do double duty to make cold air wrap in.  And the areas that are climo favored are really the only ones who can get something.  Two previous storms with similar tracks and crap air was not good for lots of places E of the Blue Ridge and around I-95

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1 minute ago, H2O said:

This.  Because of the exceedingly fast flow all winter any cold air has been quick to leave.  There just isn't much left to work with so a normally good vort pass then has to do double duty to make cold air wrap in.  And the areas that are climo favored are really the only ones who can get something.  Two previous storms with similar tracks and crap air was not good for lots of places E of the Blue Ridge and around I-95

We are in a sucky position around these parts

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GFS is obviously weaker/sheared but at d4+ that doesn't matter as much as the shortwave remains viable. Another run showing that. Good enough for now. 

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