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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We need to get our priorities in order here. So much focus on a piddly snow tv system this weekend which probably wont pan out and not enough focus on Day 10+

What could possibly go wrong? ;)

 

Think I have hit desperation mode. Op run where 90% of the snow comes after 12+ days, on the GFS no less, and yet I am all in. Let's reel this sucker in. :weenie:

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's a good shortwave. It's looked good from afar and now we're getting kinda close and still  looks good. Temps are the obvious red flag but if I lived in your area I wouldn't be as worried. 

go on...

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

go on...

In any "normal" winter, a vort pass like this would easily drop 1-3/2-4 or even 3-6 if it juices in the short range (common). Problem is we can buy a single "normal" airmass at all this year. My early guess is someone gets 3" out of the deal and it won't be my yard. Western VA appears to be the favored location. Up along the MD line it's getting on the fringes of best lift/dynamics but will that trend for the better? Yea, probably. Can my yard get several hours of good snow and not record a half inch? Yea, probably that too. 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

In any "normal" winter, a vort pass like this would easily drop 1-3/2-4 or even 3-6 if it juices in the short range (common). Problem is we can buy a single "normal" airmass at all this year. My early guess is someone gets 3" out of the deal and it won't be my yard. Western VA appears to be the favored location. Up along the MD line it's getting on the fringes of best lift/dynamics but will that trend for the better? Yea, probably. Can my yard get several hours of good snow and not record a half inch? Yea, probably that too. 

Its for this alone I don't hold much hope around Fredericksburg. Snow TV/White Rain yes, but with the airmasses we've had, anything more than that feel like a pipe dream unless things change (here's to hoping)

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10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

In any "normal" winter, a vort pass like this would easily drop 1-3/2-4 or even 3-6 if it juices in the short range (common). Problem is we can buy a single "normal" airmass at all this year. My early guess is someone gets 3" out of the deal and it won't be my yard. Western VA appears to be the favored location. Up along the MD line it's getting on the fringes of best lift/dynamics but will that trend for the better? Yea, probably. Can my yard get several hours of good snow and not record a half inch? Yea, probably that too. 

This.  Because of the exceedingly fast flow all winter any cold air has been quick to leave.  There just isn't much left to work with so a normally good vort pass then has to do double duty to make cold air wrap in.  And the areas that are climo favored are really the only ones who can get something.  Two previous storms with similar tracks and crap air was not good for lots of places E of the Blue Ridge and around I-95

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1 minute ago, H2O said:

This.  Because of the exceedingly fast flow all winter any cold air has been quick to leave.  There just isn't much left to work with so a normally good vort pass then has to do double duty to make cold air wrap in.  And the areas that are climo favored are really the only ones who can get something.  Two previous storms with similar tracks and crap air was not good for lots of places E of the Blue Ridge and around I-95

We are in a sucky position around these parts

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Meanwhile GFS is slightly less ampd and farther vs 6z.  I hate this model. 

I'm conflicted... These types of shortwaves are absolute bread and butter here. It's one of the most common ways we get a modest snowfall. So for that reason I'm getting sucked in. But then when I mentally review this season since Dec 1st I get that sinking feeling that even with a bread and butter shortwave my yard is still kinda F'd. Smell what I'm steppin in?

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm conflicted... These types of shortwaves are absolute bread and butter here. It's one of the most common ways we get a modest snowfall. So for that reason I'm getting sucked in. But then when I mentally review this season since Dec 1st I get that sinking feeling that even with a bread and butter shortwave my yard is still kinda F'd. Smell what I'm steppin in?

Yeah, I'm a bit more pessimistic and gun shy than usual.  My rule is when there is too much to worry about, it's prob not going to work out.  This year, it's amplified times 10....unlike that s/w on the GFS.

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm conflicted... These types of shortwaves are absolute bread and butter here. It's one of the most common ways we get a modest snowfall. So for that reason I'm getting sucked in. But then when I mentally review this season since Dec 1st I get that sinking feeling that even with a bread and butter shortwave my yard is still kinda F'd. Smell what I'm steppin in?

If we can't even get a little shortwave like this to work...C'MON!!!! That would road salt in the wound (or perhaps bread and melted butter, smh). It's gonna be really frustrating if this were to also trend warmer like everything else has this year.

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, I'm a bit more pessimistic and gun shy than usual.  My rule is when there is too much to worry about, it's prob not going to work out.  This year, it's amplified times 10....unlike that s/w on the GFS.

And really, in this scenario, would there really be that much to worry about? You'd think this setup would be simpler than anything else we've had...

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8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And really, in this scenario, would there really be that much to worry about? You'd think this setup would be simpler than anything else we've had...

Other than the distinct possibility of it being a weak sauce, progressive sw, marginal, fleeting cold, and it tracking too far north, nothing to worry about.

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17 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, I'm a bit more pessimistic and gun shy than usual.  My rule is when there is too much to worry about, it's prob not going to work out.  This year, it's amplified times 10....unlike that s/w on the GFS.

Yea, I hate being mentally conditioned to fail. That's what made me step back last week. The upcoming period in general has a fatal flaw so I'm hanging onto the weekend shortwave because it's the only thing promising. Beyond that people need to not ignore the fact that longwave patterns act like rubber bands so as long as the troughs keep dropping in the west the height rises or north trend in the east can't be offset. The only thing that can offset a -PNA is blocking. Considering we have nearly record breaking unblocking there is no way I'll believe a long range prog showing snow on a gradient wave. Even PA/NY will struggle at times with this set of features. MD doesn't work with 2 strikes against like 90% of the time and that's what we have in the upper levels... at least 2 strikes against...

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1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

As indicated weekend low still there, but not as strong this run.  WB 12Z GFS for weekend.,

gfs-deterministic-ma-total_snow_kuchera-1260400.png

I always hate to see us on the southern fringe of snowfall maps, but I hate it a lot more when you are just looking at this kind of a pattern because it seems like it's so easy for the waves to trend north in time.

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