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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ve never been more sure of anything. The one thing we are great at is epic fail. 

Even in the best of patterns it seems defeat is always ready to be snatched from the jaws of victory. I’m an old Brooklyn Dodger fan “ wait till next year” is an easy mantra. As always ....

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Absolutely! Make sure our lawn mowers are workable cuz we be mowin soon

was hoping id get to use the new tractor in the snow this year which never happened.  At least I will be using the new tractor with the new 72" john deere finishing mower sooner rather than later.

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14 minutes ago, Ji said:
36 minutes ago, PhineasC said:
This winter has been dead since early December. All that has kept the fires burning is weenie denial, plain and simple.

We never made it to within 6 days of a snowstorm

We may never see another winter like this.All bad all the time.  No hope or even the hint of anything wintry.  I bet even Jon Jon up in Davis WV has had a miserable season.  

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19 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

We may never see another winter like this.All bad all the time.  No hope or even the hint of anything wintry.  I bet even Jon Jon up in Davis WV has had a miserable season.  

For me this winter is nothing like the period from late 1989 through Dec of 1992. It was like I lived in southern Georgia.

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22 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The only time I even look at the CFS is when it came up in discussion. It’s useless. But simply using the AO isn’t going to work past a week since the current AO doesn’t have much predictability past a few days. It can flip quickly sometimes. Now certain patterns that create stable feedback loops like the current pac/AO combo can suggest persistence. But simply using the AO value to predict the next week/month is risky. 

I was referring to both the magnitude and duration of the AO. So far this season it has achieved several records in the positive phase.  Although the NAO is extremely unpredictable at short leads, as you are aware,  I have found the AO because of the nature of the domain and other related factors and drivers to be easier to forecast at long leads. Some seasonal forecasters have done a stellar job at predicting the predominant AO phase for the met winter.  Even Don S has posted many updates where he ties in the AO phase, magnitude and duration to produce possible examples of the winter weather prospects pretty far ahead in time. Also, using the vortex as a guide has been usefull as well. Early in the season it appeared most of our cold was from vortex elongations and mid to later in the season,   the strong vortex vacillation cycle  of the 20th of the month, as mentioned by HM has worked very well for colder outbreaks but of short very duration.  

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