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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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45 minutes ago, Ji said:
59 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:
^I should have made that my profile photo a month ago.

We are getting an easy snow storm around March 20th

What’s going to happen is late March the PV breaks down and blocking sets up but because it’s late March and the mid latitudes are torched by the antecedent pattern we will get a perfect track slow moving coastal 960 bomb that stalls just east of OC and dumps 3” of rain at 37 degrees and mixes with slush bombs at times just to tease us even more. 

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What’s going to happen is late March the PV breaks down and blocking sets up but because it’s late March and the mid latitudes are torched by the antecedent pattern we will get a perfect track slow moving coastal 960 bomb that stalls just east of OC and dumps 3” of rain at 37 degrees and mixes with slush bombs at times just to tease us even more. 
If it can happen by mid march we can still score but there is nothing suggesting this
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22 minutes ago, Ji said:
27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
What’s going to happen is late March the PV breaks down and blocking sets up but because it’s late March and the mid latitudes are torched by the antecedent pattern we will get a perfect track slow moving coastal 960 bomb that stalls just east of OC and dumps 3” of rain at 37 degrees and mixes with slush bombs at times just to tease us even more. 

If it can happen by mid march we can still score but there is nothing suggesting this

It’s going to happen a day too late. You know it. 

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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

What’s going to happen is late March the PV breaks down and blocking sets up but because it’s late March and the mid latitudes are torched by the antecedent pattern we will get a perfect track slow moving coastal 960 bomb that stalls just east of OC and dumps 3” of rain at 37 degrees and mixes with slush bombs at times just to tease us even more. 

March 29, 1984.

 

Of course the "snow mixed in with rain before ending" in the official forecast turned into 7" of the wettest snow I remember.  I broke two hickory handle shovels digging out the bottom of the lane where the plow pushed up a crazy wall of slush and snow.

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On 2/21/2020 at 6:29 PM, CentralVaNATS said:

What a bunchh of baloney. Man go pound sand or thorns in TX

I am pounding sand and thorns in Texas, but I still believe in snow hitting DC this season. There is still time. I have seen stranger winter weather in the 50 or so years I used to live there, lol. I know its a bad pattern, but there is still time. About those thorns, they have trees down here with 4 inch thorns on the branches! I had to remove some! Man was that entertaining! LOL

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Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

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The CFS is not a reliable model. I think we all know that by now.  Never place any confidence in the forecast for the next month until we get to the very end of the current month we are in and even then it is not very useful.  It was portraying a very cold March but as Don mentions it is slowly doing what it has done every month so far this winter which is turn warmer . 

Simply focus on the AO and the NAO state and you will have a much better idea about any winter weather potential  in our area. 

From Don S update a short while ago

 

<<

 

Morning thoughts...

 

1. Record heat covers parts of northern Africa. Essaouira, Morocco hit a February record high temperature of 90°.

 

2. Temperatures will likely soar into the middle and even upper 50s in the Middle Atlantic region today and tomorrow. Washington, DC could see the temperature approach or reach 60°.

 

3. The powerful polar vortex remains strong.

 

4. The base case remains a warmer than normal March and Spring in the region.

 

The CFSv2 is now well underway in evolving toward what could be a warmer March outlook for the region.

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19 minutes ago, frd said:

 

The CFS is not a reliable model. I think we all know that by now.  Never place any confidence in the forecast for the next month until we get to the very end of the current month we are in and even then it is not very useful.  It was portraying a very cold March but as Don mentions it is slowly doing what it has done every month so far this winter which is turn warmer . 

Simply focus on the AO and the NAO state and you will have a much better idea about any winter weather potential  in our area. 

From Don S update a short while ago

 

<<

 

Morning thoughts...

 

1. Record heat covers parts of northern Africa. Essaouira, Morocco hit a February record high temperature of 90°.

 

2. Temperatures will likely soar into the middle and even upper 50s in the Middle Atlantic region today and tomorrow. Washington, DC could see the temperature approach or reach 60°.

 

3. The powerful polar vortex remains strong.

 

4. The base case remains a warmer than normal March and Spring in the region.

 

The CFSv2 is now well underway in evolving toward what could be a warmer March outlook for the region.

The only time I even look at the CFS is when it came up in discussion. It’s useless. But simply using the AO isn’t going to work past a week since the current AO doesn’t have much predictability past a few days. It can flip quickly sometimes. Now certain patterns that create stable feedback loops like the current pac/AO combo can suggest persistence. But simply using the AO value to predict the next week/month is risky. 

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CFS did get the AO/NAO right. It was persistently showing blue up top leading into winter, and continued that look. It failed miserably with the EPO. Even after the Pac pattern emerged and became stable, the CFS kept insisting on a big EPO ridge delivering cross polar flow, with a trough in the east. It has been playing catch up over the last month.

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2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

CFS did get the AO/NAO right. It was persistently showing blue up top leading into winter, and continued that look. It failed miserably with the EPO. Even after the Pac pattern emerged and became stable, the CFS kept insisting on a big EPO ridge delivering cross polar flow, with a trough in the east. It has been playing catch up over the last month.

Yea I nailed that the sun would come up this morning...everything else is details. 

I’m being a smart ass of course and you’re right but in my experience the cfs gets the whole picture correct so infrequently, and is so god awful with major pattern drivers like the mjo, that it’s useless. 

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So the obvious issues of the pac and AO have been covered...but there are transient troughs making it into the east now due to shortening wavelengths and that’s our “fluke chance”. But another issue muting those odds is that the next 2 troughs (on guidance at least) amplify and stall to our north and do not progress east. It’s much harder to get a follow up system to amplify under a system than behind it. It’s not leaving enough space.  Then when the trough lifts it does so quickly and to the north instead of a progressing east which also limits the chance of a WAA wave on the tail of any cold shot. That progression is the fabled warm wet cold dry we love so much. 

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

Your 960s bomb showed up on the Gfs around 300 hr except it  wasn't off OC lol

No we will get 2-3 teases where it is cold enough but storms track just to our west as the pattern transitions.   Then exactly when it’s simply too late to work we will get the totally perfect coastal bomb that would have been 50” if it was one week sooner but will just be rain mixed with just enough slush bombs to make it hurt more. 

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55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ve never been more sure of anything. The one thing we are great at is epic fail. 

And AN temps.  We over perform.  Can’t forget that.  I bet 80% of the CPC 6-10 or 8-14 day outlooks are orange hue at any given time over our region.  

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