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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Honestly I don't think there is any predictability here... but simply odds favor crap because odds favor a crap winter 70% of the time ANY year.  Only 30% of our winters are avg to above avg snowfall...  

Also there are lots of moving parts to these analogs.  For instance...2009 isn't a great analog with the AO but it was a perfect match in the pacific. 

2009.png.96b9b055bf95d2a288c35ac81165bfeb.png

Possibly the low solar prevented what should have been a raging positive AO with that pac pattern...or maybe it was something else...who knows... either way 2009 wasnt really good (except compared to this year) but it was followed by 2010.  If we add that as an analog then suddenly we have 2 recent examples of a crap pacific like this leading to a historic snowfall winter next year.  But then we are manipulating the data a little to include 2009...or are we?  What is more important the high latitude pattern or the pacific?  I dont know.  But you can probably splice this up however you want to show whatever you want.  In the end I don't think one year can predict the next.  

I hope you're right...because this has been a bit of a rough run even by our standards. Barring any March miracles, one warning event in 4 years is rough even for us, I'd imagine...

(this is when you pull out data to show that this isn't unusual, lol). But being just 29, I guess most of my lifetime we have gotten a good punch every few years...and have not had a dry spell without a warning event (at BWI, that is...not including DCA's footer last year, lol) last longer than 4 years. So perhaps it seems worse because of that!

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5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Honestly I don't think there is any predictability here... but simply odds favor crap because odds favor a crap winter 70% of the time ANY year.  Only 30% of our winters are avg to above avg snowfall...  

Also there are lots of moving parts to these analogs.  For instance...2009 isn't a great analog with the AO but it was a perfect match in the pacific. 

2009.png.96b9b055bf95d2a288c35ac81165bfeb.png

Possibly the low solar prevented what should have been a raging positive AO with that pac pattern...or maybe it was something else...who knows... either way 2009 wasnt really good (except compared to this year) but it was followed by 2010.  If we add that as an analog then suddenly we have 2 recent examples of a crap pacific like this leading to a historic snowfall winter next year.  But then we are manipulating the data a little to include 2009...or are we?  What is more important the high latitude pattern or the pacific?  I dont know.  But you can probably splice this up however you want to show whatever you want.  In the end I don't think one year can predict the next.  

Both the high lat pattern and the Pac contribute to what could have been a massively spectacular winter.

But Washington DC is STILL gonna get annihilated later this month or in Morch, by a very deep snowstorm and by frigid temps!

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Both the high lat pattern and the Pac contribute to what could have been a massively spectacular winter.

But Washington DC is STILL gonna get annihilated later this month or in Morch, by a very deep snowstorm and by frigid temps!

What a bunchh of baloney. Man go pound sand or thorns in TX

 

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

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One thing to add a bit of hope for our snow future...Looking through our history of solar minimums and the winters around them, it appears there has only been one minimum on record (that is, back to 1883) where we didn't get above average snow either the winter of the minimum or the winter after...and that was 1954. (And even then we did get 19 inches in 55/56). All the rest had an above average winter within 1-2 years after the minimum. I think I like that trend B)

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Really not much to like on the overnight runs for the roughly day 5-8 period that had some promise just a few days ago. We are just not seeing even close to enough separation between the front running SW and the dropping NS. At this point per the models about the only thing left on the table is the possibility of some NS energy dropping down the backside of the 500's after they pull through our region. And even that is looking rough as the mean trough look/placement is looking unfavorable for anything more then a very minor event. 

Now the period of time that sets up everything is roughly day 3 (NS drops interaction with the SW) so it isn't like we have loads of time to get that right. Hoping for the separation we need to see between these two features is probably a hopeless cause at this point. So that begs the question of what could possible shake things up to give us a shot? About the only thing I can see is that if we actually see the NS phase into that front running shortwave instead of missing it and washing out. Now this option would probably take any of our chances away for seeing snow as the 500's approach and pull through the region (they are looking very slim anyway) but it does improve the odds for another possibility. This would set up a different evolution, placement and timing of the 500's as they finally reached our area. A different look that very well could put us in a better position for any energy diving down the backside of the trough to amplify then we are currently seeing. Now do I expect any of this? Not necessarily. But it is the only thing I got.

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