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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

 

I agree. Was sort of alluding to this in my brief comment from above. Probably should have gone into a little more detail but I was busy doing something and just had time to shoot off a quick comment. But the setup we now have being projected isn't really conducive for having both cold and a decent SW/surface circulation in place at the same time. Of course things may and probably will change with the setup with seven days to go but right now with what is being projected I am not really high on that period.

 

 

Our better bet might be to root for that system to phase into the NS and set up more confluence to try to force the bigger one behind it south.  That one is getting closer on the EPS.  It's still likely all going to fail but that one is the best bet of a sorry lot.  

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44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

March 58 and 56 are in the analog package today...so I guess maybe...

I am trying here....really I am

Appreciate your posts and recognition of the realities this winter season.  Early March has been a window for a while, and was even mentioned back in December, although more in the context of a back loaded winter. Statistically, even in this horrendous winter we could score something white.  Still fun to see if we can get an anomalous snow event. 

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List of winters that ended with a bang in March. Posted by regional NWS today.


“Our winter has been nearly snow-free, but March can pull a fast one on us. In DC, March was the snowiest month of the winter in 1888, 1890, 1891, 1896, 1914, 1923, 1924, 1932, 1937, 1938, 1941, 1942, 1943, 1950, 1953, 1960, 1969, 1993, 1994, 1999, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2017 and 2018.”


.

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Just now, WeatherShak said:

List of winters that ended with a bang in March. Posted by regional NWS today.


“Our winter has been nearly snow-free, but March can pull a fast one on us. In DC, March was the snowiest month of the winter in 1888, 1890, 1891, 1896, 1914, 1923, 1924, 1932, 1937, 1938, 1941, 1942, 1943, 1950, 1953, 1960, 1969, 1993, 1994, 1999, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2017 and 2018.”


.

This year is especially favorable for a March maximum.  Even a generic 3" - 5" event would top the winter for just about all the climo spots in the LWX CWA.

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20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Our better bet might be to root for that system to phase into the NS and set up more confluence to try to force the bigger one behind it south.  That one is getting closer on the EPS.  It's still likely all going to fail but that one is the best bet of a sorry lot.  

As I have been saying (or nagging about :lol:) for the last week we really need to not see the massive dump of the NS in the west. It's hell trying to make lemonade out of the big lemon of a look we would get with the huge height builds it would create in the East. Get that dump to bypass the west and dump farther east and good things are possible. And I think that SW we are talking about could possibly be a major player in that case. Models are really starting to show this feature stronger and progressing farther east then just a few days ago. Get the NS to phase with that somewhere in the east (as you mentioned above) to get a stronger system to setup confluence to our NE and our prospects look brighter. Models are also picking up on a little more active and more pressing NS as the closed low moves eastward then on previous runs all of which could make or break our possibilities with forcing suppression on that feature as it is moving eastward. But those things won't mean much, IF WE SEE THE NS DUMP INTO THE WEST. Guess everybody now knows where I stand. :D

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5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

If parts of East Central NC get 6-12" like the NAM shows, man would that be a kick straight to the furry kiwi's. The NAM and Euro are so worlds apart in terms of the coastal enhancement and dynamics of the snow

Fear nothing. Don't worry. I live down in NC now and have brought my Woodbridge anti snow Shield along with me. I am very prepared and looking forward to watching snowfall break out in each direction within 5 miles of my house. 

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1 minute ago, Stormpc said:

Fear nothing. Don't worry. I live down in NC now and have brought my Woodbridge anti snow Shield along with me. I am very prepared and looking forward to watching snowfall break out in each direction within 5 miles of my house. 

lol..I mean I deff think if this goes down the best stuff is well west south west of you but good luck man, hope you at least see some fatties

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20 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

If parts of East Central NC get 6-12" like the NAM shows, man would that be a kick straight to the furry kiwi's. The NAM and Euro are so worlds apart in terms of the coastal enhancement and dynamics of the snow

having the NAM keep showing this keeps hope alive....and the hope the euro responds..but as we all know...if it was us...the 00z NAM would takee us from 6-12 to a dusting in one run

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Just now, Ji said:

having the NAM keep showing this keeps hope alive....and the hope the euro responds..but as we all know...if it was us...the 00z NAM would takee us from 6-12 to a dusting in one run

Yeah but its nice having the GFS somewhat on board. I think the Euro is a little underdone. The truth usually lies in the middle, my prediction would be 2-4 for most of central NC with lollies up to 6".  But its not an easy call for sure

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47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If the pattern for early March is correct at least we would have trackabke threats. Still a long shot to get a big hit but all guidance is at least cold enough that it’s not laughable to think maybe...

ive seen way better patterns in march.....we have been awful in whatever cold shots we have had this year...so we are still talking fluke imo

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34 minutes ago, Ji said:

ive seen way better patterns in march.....we have been awful in whatever cold shots we have had this year...so we are still talking fluke imo

I am starting to get just a little bit interested in this one.  Which means its going to hurt all the more when it goes poof.

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If the pattern for early March is correct at least we would have trackabke threats. Still a long shot to get a big hit but all guidance is at least cold enough that it’s not laughable to think maybe...
Yep it is a big if pattern for any trackable threats just like January and February have been but at this point we should let it go. Sun angle at work
But hope something materializes for even a 6 hr event come March

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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5 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said:

Yep it is a big if pattern for any trackable threats just like January and February have been but at this point we should let it go. Sun angle at work
But hope something materializes for even a 6 hr event come March

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

Meh. When tracking it doesn’t matter what has happened earlier in the season. And as far as sun angle? It’s generally an overused cliche and definitely doesn’t matter when it’s dark. Plenty of late winter/early spring events the past several years. 

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2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Meh. When tracking it doesn’t matter what has happened earlier in the season. And as far as sun angle? It’s generally an overused cliche and definitely doesn’t matter when it’s dark. Plenty of late winter/early spring events the past several years. 

Wait that post was supposed to make sense?

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