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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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Morning GFS was somewhat interesting. Slight shifting E of the initial SW dump (might only be noise) but what really stuck out was it now has NS energy showing up in eastern Canada that is helping to suppress the dump as it moves eastward. Not in such a favorable locale and it doesn't evolve the same as the Euro but none the less it does help shift the track southward.

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16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

We lookin' good overall.

 

Of the hundreds of snow maps posted during this winter only about .000000001 % ever looked good for us.   

Snow maps in the medium range and long range have proven to be total BS this winter.

Meanwhile .....

  

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3 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Of the hundreds of snow maps posted during this winter only about .000000001 % ever looked good for us.   

Snow maps in the medium range and long range have proven to be total BS this winter.

Meanwhile .....

  

I would argue that the prob snow maps have been accurate.  They have never trended above 50% for 3 inches or more all winter inside of five days and it has not snowed.  During the 15 day ensemble period still no high probs of snow.  I completely agree that snow maps don’t tell us anything about the pattern itself.

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19 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I would argue that the prob snow maps have been accurate.  They have never trended above 50% for 3 inches or more all winter inside of five days and it has not snowed.  During the 15 day ensemble period still no high probs of snow.  I completely agree that snow maps don’t tell us anything about the pattern itself.

LOL, as long as they don’t say 100% and then it doesn’t snow they will always be accurate..

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13 minutes ago, Ji said:
22 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6z EURO.  No snow this work week. T minus about 4 weeks and counting.
 

Southern weenies are super excited about the nam and are ignoring the euro

They will definitely be disappointed if they follow the NAM. It has promised us so much snow up here in Upstate NY this winter...and failed many times. Add the GEFS to that. I would have 200 inches of snow for the winter if they were right.

Wisdom: Trust those who have lived through it and experienced it. Don't trust the NAM!

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Wonder whether there is research on the SPV and the TPV in winters such as 2020 and what the next winter evolved into?  

If the Pac  has any influence on the vortex in terms of precursor patterns and weakening, etc. are we looking at stronger winter vortex setting up in future winters ?  

Seems that although up North has been cold,  not so sure this will carry over to any long term benefit though.

Certainly the high speed jet circling the NH is remarkable, this image is a great representation. 

Again, what will be the spill over effects be for the early summer?  

Some modeling is indicating a somewhat warmer spring. But, but beyond the seasonal vortex weakening and changing wavelengths maybe a more normal summer might await us. 

 

AA13CEC3-AB1C-4DA2-9348-002F57B4076A.png

 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Wonder whether there is research on the SPV and the TPV in winters such as 2020 and what the next winter evolved into?  

If the Pac  has any influence on the vortex in terms of precursor patterns and weakening, etc. are we looking at stronger winter vortex setting up in future winters ?  

Seems that although up North has been cold,  not so sure this will carry over to any long term benefit though.

Certainly the high speed jet circling the NH is remarkable, this image is a great representation. 

Again, what will be the spill over effects be for the early summer?  

Some modeling is indicating a somewhat warmer spring. But, but beyond the seasonal vortex weakening and changing wavelengths maybe a more normal summer might await us. 

 

AA13CEC3-AB1C-4DA2-9348-002F57B4076A.png

 

 

 

There was research done not directly related to the PV that seasons with well BN snowfall and AN temps yield a hotter summer. It is posted by Don in the Philly sub.

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33 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Wonder whether there is research on the SPV and the TPV in winters such as 2020 and what the next winter evolved into?  

If the Pac  has any influence on the vortex in terms of precursor patterns and weakening, etc. are we looking at stronger winter vortex setting up in future winters ?  

Seems that although up North has been cold,  not so sure this will carry over to any long term benefit though.

Certainly the high speed jet circling the NH is remarkable, this image is a great representation. 

Again, what will be the spill over effects be for the early summer?  

Some modeling is indicating a somewhat warmer spring. But, but beyond the seasonal vortex weakening and changing wavelengths maybe a more normal summer might await us. 

 

AA13CEC3-AB1C-4DA2-9348-002F57B4076A.png

 

 

 

That's a pretty impressive look. Keep in mind that there is a lot of energy stored within that jet. When the SPV starts weakening and breaking down as we transition into Spring that energy will need to be released. How that will probably be released will be with some significant amplification within the mid-latitude wave lengths. There could be some very impressive/wacky solutions in store for us in the spring.

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4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Showme already touched on the day 9 threat but day 7 timeframe with the first sw ejecting from out west  is still trackable imo  .Most likely a marginal setup if it were to come together . 0z Euro wasn't real far off from the possibilty.  Gets snows into central- north Pa. 

Gefs low clustering hr174

 

Screenshot_20200218-084035_Chrome.jpg

Have been keeping an eye on that as well. Temps will be an issue though and I am not sure how we can achieve the temps needed without killing the SW before it can have an impact on us.

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43 minutes ago, Ji said:
45 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:
It has been a long time and they are rusty. Help them out.

I know the event will probably not be a big deal but I'm jealous they are tracking something lol

Its gonna be a big nothing for most of us down here. Looks better for my area of NC only due to some POSSIBLE coastal enhancement, but still it's a stretch to believe the set up given the Euro really wants little part of it. But at least we are tracking something.  2 years down here and not a single trash can topper. 

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39 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

There was research done not directly related to the PV that seasons with well BN snowfall and AN temps yield a hotter summer. It is posted by Don in the Philly sub

Certainly has been a tendency for hotter summers it seems lately,  although I wonder the data set regarding Don's research.  Are we to possible expect different outcomes this time around due to changes in summer blocking and changes in the base state? Hard to argue that the Atlantic 's warm SSTs are not going to be a factor in the summer and in the early Fall this year.  We have not knocked down those ocean temps much this winter at all.  I can see implications possibly for the upcoming Hurricane season. 

Touching  on blocking in the NAO domain , in hindsight those who expressed concern about the record - NAO back in the late spring and summer were correct. When the NAO flipped to positive it remained there for about 95 % of the winter beginning on December 1 st.

 

 nao.sprd2.gif

 

  

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No one wants to hear it (for a variety of reasons) but there has been a tendency for hotter EVERYTHING lately.  

I even wrote that in a way to temper my perceived observations.  Last few years has been discouraging to say the least.  

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