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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Even at 7 to 8 days out?  That's still way out there in time. Significant changes could still occur and that's the beauty of this hobby imo . You simply never know even with all the advancements.  I'll keep tracking that time frame till at least the end of  the week . Besides it would only be the appetizer that preceeds our March 1st HECS ( that will piss off all the March snow haters ):D

Ordinarily I'd agree about lot giving up 7-8 days out...but that whole week is so historically futile for us (for some strange reason) that I just skip it, lol But hopefully we can have something for the week of the 1st start popping up by the end of the week!

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For those holding out hope for late week, that stretched out vort max dropping down from Central Canada on Thursday is the feature to watch. It ultimately will act as the kicker, but if it digs a bit further west as it heads south, it can turn the flow a bit more ENE instead of due East. The runs that have been interesting, esp the 0z Euro and CMC, have this feature sharper and digging further west. It's a long shot for DC north any way you slice it, but there is a chance for southern parts of the region to get in on the northern fringe of the precip shield.

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Just now, ryanconway63 said:

A central NC jackpot 4 days out usually ends up being a central VA jackpot when all is said and done.....

This has never been more true than this winter. We have seen these advertised set ups end up working out great for N PA into NNE. In this case however, its hard to see how that happens. The flow is so progressive and flat, and the southern energy is on the weak side, with any significant development occurring offshore. Perfect set up for the MA to get screwed a different way lol.

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