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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Trend is sharper and further west with the NS 500 mb energy. Going to be difficult to get enough interaction with the ss before it gets shunted out.

Looking kinda interesting for much of NC and SE VA now on recent guidance though..

I have seen this movie before and it always ends up badly...the models make a significant north push and then there is that one run where we need 100 miles more north and instead it goes 75 miles south.

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

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18 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Only fitting that just about the only place in the CONUS that has less snow than us gets hit.  

12z GFS still a whiff down that way, but it did actually take a step towards the other guidance at h5. Up here we are likely chasing a near hit at best.

Maybe its a good sign that places south of here are being threatened with a little snow. I know that's in the weenie handbook somewhere.

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1 hour ago, Ji said:

ive never seen storm in this location giving us dry

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_58.png

One problem there is the flow is de amplified but also there isn’t enough cold to really resist the WAA ahead of a low there to create the stout WAA precip you typically see in a winter synoptic system located there. You need enough resistance to the southerly flow to create enough lift to get that. Otherwise you get a more typical spring/summer showery look to the precip shield. 

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Not even speaking about snow - but the weather in general just looks incredibly boring. Had it not been for that surprise TOR/severe day this would have been an exceedingly boring stretch...unless you like tracking steady rain. 

If we can't score with winter weather...I hope spring brings some excitement at least. 

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My optimistic spin of the day...early March still holds “some” potential. Before that everything is lottery ticket type threats. 

There are signs that shortening wavelengths are starting to create the chaos we need to at least have a chance. The cold that creates the threat for NC this week comes due to a super transient ridge intrusion into and through the eastern EPO domain. It’s too short lived such that by the time the flow has a chance to relax and back enough for anything to develop the ridge has progressed too far.  This time the ridge progresses over top of us as a system tries to come east only the flow is suppressive in front, not really that cold, and the trough digging in the west is stealing most of the energy. It’s another long shot. 

But after that all guidance suggests another ridge progresses into NW Canada. This time it lasts long enough (several days) to create a true cold dump into the eastern US. That’s true across all guidance. 

It won’t last. It’s not a true pattern change imo just chaos from shorter wavelengths allowing transient ridges to progress where they couldn’t during the stable winter longwave pattern. But any change will snap back to the status quo imo. But the biggest correlation to snow in March is simply cold. March had by far the largest sample of “weird” snowstorms. Patterns that looked odd that produced snow. H5 looks that made no sense. Get that cold dump for the first week of March and we have a chance. 

The long range 12z gfs shows how it could work. 2 waves come out before the cold is scoured. Because they split the energy wave 1 gets suppressed. If that ejects whole that is likely a snow threat. Storm 2 could have been after day 16.  The look is already breaking down and after that second wave day 17 we will warm up on that look but we would have had 2 shots first.  I know a long range op isn’t going to be close but the longwave pattern matches all the ensembles and I’m just using it’s details to show how that “could” work. 

It’s not a great look. Expectations should be low. But it’s the best chance we have had. Get a huge dump of cold in March and roll the dice. It’s all we got. 

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4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I hope this winter sacrifice results in more sea ice, new sea ice of course, and snow pack up top for future winters.  If I really thought that was true I’d say this was worth it.  Have to believe an entire winter of +AO helps that cause

Unfortunately - at least based on this - it's not doing much for the ice so far. 

 

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

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9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I usually only casually look at day 10 + but cold air doesn't look to be a problem if the Gefs is correct down the road. 

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-2934400.png

That look is universal across guidance. It’s overdone on the gefs (cold bias) but it’s plenty good enough on the geps and eps too. 

4069697A-4C46-491F-8E9C-BF5D2CCA8859.thumb.png.204fb11679fe981e1027e6d9af422887.png

1AECB067-BA2C-400E-BEB2-92AF1DF2A405.thumb.png.e4615ef23279ecca8ea0e15a1a1929f1.png

As I was saying above that’s our best looking opportunity coming of the year. That’s a low bar but it is what it is. 

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