Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
 Share

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, Amped said:

Seems to be the trend this year  Snow doesn't want to come anywhere near the MA. We can't even get a close call this year.

Most close calls happen in a decent pattern. Good patterns even are littered with near miss fails. We haven’t had anything close to a good pattern so nothing close to a near miss either. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

This beast is relentless.

1583236800-pCzmeYTE9iw.png

 

Conflicting signals for spring . We are in a new base state, and to a degree the outcomes for the spring might be surprising, for that matter maybe even the early summer as well.

This record +AO and relentless powerful vortex shows no sign in weakening.  Another record  + push may occur shortly with the AO.   Fascinating weather in terms of extremes at the HL.  The 12 to 18 month repeating pattern of hyper jet, Pac ridge and little winter blocking continues. 

The remarkable seasonal associations of using both the the +PNA and the -AO to forecast snowfall so far have been flawless. Never even have to look at a model when you have such an extreme  +AO , and such a long duration - PNA combined with a  very poor NAM state and little to any - NAO episodes.   

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It will be transient. We’re just looking for a shot. We probably only get one chance. The first system to eject from the west behind the likely cutter will be the only real chance. After it probably breaks down again.  

One chance is better than 0.  We will need some luck without other indices helping.  End of February, first few days of March is our chance.

2CD251C5-0BB2-4BAE-8A5D-C43992F62ED0.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It will be salt in the wounds if we got the pattern we needed too late...but the fear spring gets ruined by a -NAO is always overblown. A -NAO can certainly make March chilly but by the time we get to April there is no way we’re getting more than a rare day or two that’s actually cold. It won’t rain everyday...and when it’s Sunny it’s almost guaranteed to at least be ~50 degrees.  It will just delay summer like temps until May/June instead of years where we jump right to upper 70s and 80s in April. 

So you are saying April and May will be like DJF... ok. 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

A -NAO can certainly make March chilly but by the time we get to April there is no way we’re getting more than a rare day or two that’s actually cold. It won’t rain everyday...and when it’s Sunny it’s almost guaranteed to at least be ~50 degrees.  It will just delay summer like temps until May/June instead of years where we jump right to upper 70s and 80s in April. 

idk about that- the first half of April can be quite chilly if it wants too (2018 and 2007 come to mind).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

idk about that- the first half of April can be quite chilly if it wants too (2018 and 2007 come to mind).

At IAD April 2018 had 

2 days in the 80s

6 days in the 70s

10 days in the 60s

10 days in the 50s

2 days in the 40s. 

2007 

6 days in the 80s

5 days in the 70s

3 days in the 60s

9 days in the 50s

7 days in the 40s

How did we ever survive those arctic months!?

 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Wow...They must have been on the warm side of the front on the first 10 days of April 2018:lol:

No they recorded a T of frozen twice that week. But also hit 70 one day and were in the 50s a few others. Up here it can be a little chilly (but I don’t mind a sunny 47 degree day at all) but outside the higher elevations in April unless it’s precipitating or a crazy rare anomalous arctic airmass that’s unlikely to last more than a day or two...it gets close to 50 from the sun angle. And a 50 degree sunny day in April feels great imo. Cold in the spring is overblown imo. 

ETA:  it can be chilly when it’s raining but who cares. I wouldn’t be out in the rain anyways. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

At IAD April 2018 had 

2 days in the 80s

6 days in the 70s

10 days in the 60s

10 days in the 50s

2 days in the 40s. 

2007 

6 days in the 80s

5 days in the 70s

3 days in the 60s

9 days in the 50s

7 days in the 40s

How did we ever survive those arctic months!?

 

I noticed you used the entire month, instead of just the first half like my post stated...

BWI had five straight days in April 2007 that never got out of the 40's (and also had accumulating snow). I had snow falling on both 4/7/18 and 4/9/18 and accumulating on 4/9/16. 40's in April is cold to me- that's our average DJF high. The first half of April can be a winter month- I could fill the entire page up with examples.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wait...were we tracking something on the 25th? Lol

It always has and continues to look like a warm storm on the means. Not really sure why anyone is expecting anything else at this juncture. It's the period beyond this that holds some potential, such that it is. Looks like a pretty brief window in early March for something, before the +AO/NAO goes bully again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Amped said:

Nice to see every model handling that differently.  UKMET has

It has support from a few EPS members.

Given the look in the upper levels and the progressive nature, difficult to see this getting far enough north to have any notable impact in our region before getting shunted out. The NS energy dropping in is sharper on the CMC and EURO, but would probably have to come in even further west. Interesting "trends" though on some guidance, and maybe VA beach gets a glancing blow. 

I'm still good with the snow shower idea at this point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Given the look in the upper levels and the progressive nature, difficult to see this getting far enough north to have any notable impact in our region before getting shunted out. The NS energy dropping in is sharper on the CMC and EURO, but would probably have to come in even further west. Interesting "trends" though on some guidance, and maybe VA beach gets a glancing blow. 

I'm still good with the snow shower idea at this point.

WB 6Z GFS.  Friday is not showing any legs.

E7AD555B-058C-43B3-9BA9-667E17AE7014.png

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

53 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Given the look in the upper levels and the progressive nature, difficult to see this getting far enough north to have any notable impact in our region before getting shunted out. The NS energy dropping in is sharper on the CMC and EURO, but would probably have to come in even further west. Interesting "trends" though on some guidance, and maybe VA beach gets a glancing blow. 

I'm still good with the snow shower idea at this point.

Outside of possibly something for the far SE portions of the region early on I am pretty much Meh with any potential (aside from maybe a stray flake or two) until after we see that big western dump progress eastward. And anything, after that clears the area, is pretty much about waiting to see how that evolves over the next week. Guess maybe the shortwave running in front of that dump around day 8 is worth watching? But not sure how we get the cold air we need in place with out squashing and/or suppressing that shortwave.

eta: That is if the leading shortwave can even make it to our region without getting absorbed by the trailing SW dump.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Outside of possibly something for the far SE portions of the region early on I am pretty much Meh with any potential (aside from maybe a stray flake or two) until after we see that big western dump progress eastward. And anything, after that clears the area, is pretty much about waiting to see how that evolves over the next week. Guess maybe the shortwave running in front of that dump around day 8 is worth watching? But not sure how we get the cold air we need in place with out squashing and/or suppressing that shortwave.

Yeah it just looks too warm out in front. Like you, I am waiting to see how things look beyond that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

51 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

@Weather Will

You can see the difference here.

 

 

The CMC is actually in a different world, and close to getting it done. Not buying that.

Just talking generally here and not about any particular run or of model but we have seen a general easing of the suppression over the last few days for the unsettled weather around day 4/5. Problem is it has been no where near what we need to have to see for possible impacts up through the Balt/DC region and I am not holding out much hope at this time. Maybe for you with the SE locale advantage it is worth a casual glance but up here? Nah, not so much. Funny thing is, if we were to see the needed backing off of the suppression I think it could be a nice little event as the setup would be more conducive for getting moisture thrown over the cold or even for a possible minor spin up. Think that is probably what we are seeing with the occasional good looking ensemble members though I haven't cared to check that for fact. 4 days so I guess you never know. 

eta: I assume you were referring to the follow up period and not the period just after the front clears?

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Just talking generally here and not about any particular run or of model but we have seen a general easing of the suppression over the last few days for the unsettled weather around day 4/5. Problem is it has been no where near what we need to have to see for possible impacts up through the Balt/DC region and I am not holding out much hope at this time. Maybe for you with the SE locale advantage it is worth a casual glance but up here? Nah, not so much. Funny thing is, if we were to see the needed backing off of the suppression I think it could be a nice little event as the setup would be more conducive for getting moisture thrown over the cold or even for a possible minor spin up. Think that is probably what we are seeing with the occasional good looking ensemble members though I haven't cared to check that for fact. 4 days so I guess you never know. 

eta: I assume you were referring to the follow up period and not the period just after the front clears?

Yes later this week after the initial front comes through when the NS vort drops in with what looks like a reinforcing shot of cold- the period I was highlighting in my post above. NS much more pronounced(digs further south and west) on the Euro than the GFS, and ofc the CMC goes a little bonkers with it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...