February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[showmethesnow]

10 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Sounds like heading toward cherry blossoms in bloom mid-March along the basin...

With 40's and rain in April as the -NAO sets up. 

[CAPE]

 From the Mount Holly AFD this morning, lol.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Overview... Find something you love as much as the AO loves being in the positive phase. With most of the hemisphere`s available Arctic air remaining trapped near the pole, a very familiar pattern sets up for the long term as an initially quasi-zonal pattern over the CONUS gives way to a renewed Southeast ridge and a trough over the Plains and Great Lakes.

[Ji]

at this point...i am looking for storms that are 3-4 hour driving distances away

[WinterWxLuvr]

13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

 From the Mount Holly AFD this morning, lol.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Overview... Find something you love as much as the AO loves being in the positive phase. With most of the hemisphere`s available Arctic air remaining trapped near the pole, a very familiar pattern sets up for the long term as an initially quasi-zonal pattern over the CONUS gives way to a renewed Southeast ridge and a trough over the Plains and Great Lakes.

LOL.

I just looked at the gfs. I’m not sure how it could look worse 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

LOL.

I just looked at the gfs. I’m not sure how it could look worse 

Maybe a sneaky snow shower/squall event later this week. Quite a bit of UL energy rotating down with our next winter-like excursion.

Only thing I see that is remotely trackable lol.

[frd]

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

 From the Mount Holly AFD this morning, lol.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Overview... Find something you love as much as the AO loves being in the positive phase. With most of the hemisphere`s available Arctic air remaining trapped near the pole, a very familiar pattern sets up for the long term as an initially quasi-zonal pattern over the CONUS gives way to a renewed Southeast ridge and a trough over the Plains and Great Lakes.

 This year is rather remarkable in terms of the consistent trough in the area of Alaska. Some stations in the Yukon and NW Canada setting some records for the coldest weather in many years.  

Meanwhile, I believe two days ago, another record set for the jet stream, this time over Green Bay. No changes on the horizon at all, if anything warmer risks more likely I think and a overall warmer March.  Also noticed the AO ready for another huge climb up after the recent record over over +6 SD. 

The recent trends regarding the warmer SSTs in the Eastern Pac also foretell of a warmer March , in addition to the AO  modeling.  However rolled over the warmer March gives way to a colder April. Wondering too about the summer , as I am hearing varying opinions about the summer weather pattern in the East, ranging from little precip and extreme heat to a cooler summer.  

I can not even remember the last month around here that averaged below normal. 

 

[jaydreb]

8 minutes ago, frd said:

I can not even remember the last month around here that averaged below normal. 

 

November?

[frd]

Just now, jaydreb said:

November?

That might be correct. I have to check. 

[CAPE]

Below "normal" in November is about as good as having a cold April.

When was the last time a winter month had negative departures?

[frd]

14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Below "normal" in November is about as good as having a cold April.

When was the last time a winter month had negative departures?

 Probable guess, during the + PDO / -  EPO driven winter of 2014 - 15 , when Lakes froze, it was a remarkable cold period. I might be off a year but I think one of the months was firmly below normal during met winter. 

[JakkelWx]

38 minutes ago, frd said:

 This year is rather remarkable in terms of the consistent trough in the area of Alaska. Some stations in the Yukon and NW Canada setting some records for the coldest weather in many years.  

Meanwhile, I believe two days ago, another record set for the jet stream, this time over Green Bay. No changes on the horizon at all, if anything warmer risks more likely I think and a overall warmer March.  Also noticed the AO ready for another huge climb up after the recent record over over +6 SD. 

The recent trends regarding the warmer SSTs in the Eastern Pac also foretell of a warmer March , in addition to the AO  modeling.  However rolled over the warmer March gives way to a colder April. Wondering too about the summer , as I am hearing varying opinions about the summer weather pattern in the East, ranging from little precip and extreme heat to a cooler summer.  

I can not even remember the last month around here that averaged below normal. 

 

I think with all that sea ice now from this record strong polar vortex  all the warm air's gonna be locked up in the north and we end up cooler than normal.

[frd]

14 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

I think with all that sea ice now from this record strong polar vortex  all the warm air's gonna be locked up in the north and we end up cooler than normal.

Certainly a plausible scenario.

Please,  can we get some lower minimums at night, less humid would be great too,  so less lawn fungus.  

[CAPE]

23 minutes ago, frd said:

 Probable guess, during the + PDO / -  EPO driven winter of 2014 - 15 , when Lakes froze, it was a remarkable cold period. I might be off a year but I think one of the months was firmly below normal during met winter. 

That's what I figured. I took plenty of shots of ice on the bay, esp 2014. I would think Feb 2015 was below avg even for DC.  Kinda thought there might have been one DJFM month with negative departures since those winters, but maybe not.

[CAPE]

44 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Not many in  recent years I'm sure .December was below normal through the 18th or 19 th I believe.  Probably just snuck AN because of the last week or so of torch.  I think I had 4 small snow events in that time . 

I'm glad it was cold for the 2018 historic mid November snow storm .

What? Where?

Last historic snowstorm in Nov here was 1989.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

What? Where?

Last historic snowstorm in Nov here was 1989.

We had 7” here. Not sure that’s historic though

[frd]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

That's what I figured. I took plenty of shots of ice on the bay, esp 2014. I would think Feb 2015 was below avg even for DC.  Kinda thought there might have been one DJFM month with negative departures since those winters, but maybe not.

 

As you know there have been a few months that have started firmly below average , up to - 8 degrees negative departures, but the warm-ups arrive and the negatives are wiped away. Take for example this past December . Another observation that last decade trend of colder early Decembers followed by the post 12/20 warm-up.   

Also, a  heads up that any positive you see in November and even early December means nothing for the winter ahead. At least for the last two years. Changing signals and false analogs.  Just random speculation but many were faked out by this late Fall and early winter. We learn and adjust for next year.  

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

We had 7” here. Not sure that’s historic though

I know. I was being facetious. 

I think I ended up with a half inch of slop here.

eta- that 89 storm was historic in my book. 7" of cold powder here, and big amounts all the way to the beaches. That winter ofc featured a stunning pattern reversal unfortunately. Great Dec though.

[frd]

 

Crazy things continue down under and in near by regions. Maybe the lingering effects of the record + IOD. 

 

 

[frd]

 

 

The IOD is not going super negative quickly, that sure is evident here. Actually you could say a stall last two weeks. 

 

 

20191021,20191027,2.06
20191028,20191103,2.01
20191104,20191110,1.67
20191111,20191117,1.58
20191118,20191124,1.36
20191125,20191201,1.14
20191202,20191208,0.86
20191209,20191215,0.82
20191216,20191222,0.56
20191223,20191229,0.31
20191230,20200105,0.17
20200106,20200112,0.34
20200113,20200119,0.12
20200120,20200126,-0.01
20200127,20200202,-0.06
20200203,20200209,-0.06

 

 

[WeatherShak]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

at this point...i am looking for storms that are 3-4 hour driving distances away

I go to Canaan twice a winter on purpose to get my fix. 

[CAPE]

Just now, frd said:

 

 

@C.A.P.E.  are you referring to this time period for the possible snow squalls ?

 

 

The period I was looking at was when the legit cold moves in on Thursday evening I think. There is another vort max that moves in after that too. We can reevaluate coming up shortly. If it looks promising, we can start a thread. 

[psuhoffman]

This looks like more of the same to me 

what’s more those plots don’t look as bad as it really is. The wave in the IO is offsetting the west pac wave on those plots. There are conflicting signals. But the western pac wave is feeding the pac ridge.

[cbmclean]

34 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That's what I figured. I took plenty of shots of ice on the bay, esp 2014. I would think Feb 2015 was below avg even for DC.  Kinda thought there might have been one DJFM month with negative departures since those winters, but maybe not.

January 2018.

[Maestrobjwa]

20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The period I was looking at was when the legit cold moves in on Thursday evening I think. There is another vort max that moves in after that too. We can reevaluate coming up shortly. If it looks promising, we can start a thread. 

If anybody is rooting for a futility record, they'd probably vote against that happening...lol There has not been a February that failed measure just a trace of snow since 1898...so 122 years! A snow squall would eliminate that futility record...lol (if we're gonna be bad, may as well go all the way )

[showmethesnow]

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This looks like more of the same to me 

what’s more those plots don’t look as bad as it really is. The wave in the IO is offsetting the west pac wave on those plots. There are conflicting signals. But the western pac wave is feeding the pac ridge.

That went into the tank fast. Last I saw a couple of days ago it was firmly into 8 with some decent amplitude. 

[CAPE]

20 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

That went into the tank fast. Last I saw a couple of days ago it was firmly into 8 with some decent amplitude. 

I know that's what the GEFS was forecasting. Not sure the EPS ever went to that look. I haven't been watching closely, but I think it has been generally keeping the forcing near the MC, but on the weak side.

When is Mersky back? We need an expert up in here.

[MJO812]

59 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This looks like more of the same to me 

what’s more those plots don’t look as bad as it really is. The wave in the IO is offsetting the west pac wave on those plots. There are conflicting signals. But the western pac wave is feeding the pac ridge.

Better than the warm phases.  

[dallen7908]

2 hours ago, frd said:

 This year is rather remarkable in terms of the consistent trough in the area of Alaska. Some stations in the Yukon and NW Canada setting some records for the coldest weather in many years.  

Meanwhile, I believe two days ago, another record set for the jet stream, this time over Green Bay. No changes on the horizon at all, if anything warmer risks more likely I think and a overall warmer March.  Also noticed the AO ready for another huge climb up after the recent record over over +6 SD. 

The recent trends regarding the warmer SSTs in the Eastern Pac also foretell of a warmer March , in addition to the AO  modeling.  However rolled over the warmer March gives way to a colder April. Wondering too about the summer , as I am hearing varying opinions about the summer weather pattern in the East, ranging from little precip and extreme heat to a cooler summer.  

I can not even remember the last month around here that averaged below normal. 

 

Well 6 SD is hard to comprehend 

https://www.zmescience.com/science/what-5-sigma-means-0423423/

Ok, snow showers in late March/ early April.  Seems like those were common at one point here 

https://www.masnsports.com/orioles-buzz/2017/12/orioles-classics-tbt-snowy-opening-day-comes-in-as-opacy-classic-game-no-10.html

15 day EPS snowfall mean for College Park at a new seasonal low - almost 0.5" 

[dallen7908]

1 hour ago, WeatherShak said:

I go to Canaan twice a winter on purpose to get my fix. 

I follow the link below all winter and was out in the Valley (at Whitegrass) in early February.

 I also follow several New England nordic ski weather updates.  

I also follow the weather discussion for Barrow (Utquigvik) beginning in September through late October.  

https://whitegrass.com/daily-report/

 

 

 

 

 

[showmethesnow]

20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I know that's what the GEFS was forecasting. Not sure the EPS ever went to that look. I haven't been watching closely, but I think it has been generally keeping the forcing near the MC, but on the weak side.

When is Mersky back? We need an expert up in here.

Last I saw with the EPS it was broaching 7 with low amplitude and heading back into the COD. 

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Better than the warm phases.  

Problem though is it is dumping into the COD after traveling through the warm phases at a pretty good amplitude. Usually get a residual hangover from those phases.