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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS likes next Friday for some reason.  It dropped it at 6z, but it keeps showing up on the other runs and now again at 12z.  Probably a mirage, but what else we got?

Exactly...rather chase a unicorn at under Day 10 then punt the rest of February waiting for a pattern change...the EPS control at OZ got my attention.  I know everyone says it is just another ensemble member, but it means the GFS is not completely out to lunch...at least until the 12Z EURO shows it to be partly cloudy and in the 60s late next week..... :)

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5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Not for long.  By Saturday morning you'll be chopping it up in mud ice cubes .

That's true. If I wasn't such a cold weather baby riding bikes I would take advantage but man, cold like this weekend steals all the fun out of riding. 

On topic: I agree with everyone who thinks something can pop up out of nowhere when the PNA ridge builds. No idea if it's really going to build and even less of an idea of whether or not it sticks around for more than a few days. During +AO/NAO periods the most common theme for surprise events is a +PNA. We'll know soon enough but for now my expectations remain quite low (like everybody). If it works, great and if not, oh well. 

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1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS for late next week.....not saying it is correct, but it is something to track under Day 10 that has been pretty consistent with this model.  Let's see if we see it on more than the EURO control at 12Z.  This will not verify verbatim, but the fact the model keeps trying to develop a storm to our SE needs to be watched.

 

gfs-deterministic-east-instant_ptype-2232400.png

gfs-deterministic-east-total_snow_kuchera-2286400.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2275600.png

We will all get killed by flying pigs twice before we catch a break in that pattern.

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I don’t know why some have said the pac ridge hasn’t been a consistent problem. Just because it didn’t stay at +5 stdv the whole time it’s still been there pretty consistently since early December. 

Since Dec 1

974C505E-B5C8-46AE-83C2-251006126BE9.gif.087a2df6d50398dece36a2e2c7977944.gif

and next 30 days on euro weeklies 

80E81564-6232-4701-A63D-A314CAAF4381.thumb.png.3e6c00a80f820f6ae14371207641f891.png

I guess I didn’t articulate my point that well though.  When we see a very anomalous ridge there along with a very strong +AO in January it’s very likely both persist to some degree. That doesn’t mean both stay at crazy anomalous levels the entire time. 

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17 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Look, I am not an expert, but these are the best looking snow maps we have had under 10 days on EPS in over a month and it is the only game in town for the next two weeks.  At least until 0Z tonight we have a seat in the cheap seats of the snow bowl stadium.

its not really inside 10 days. And we have seen better snow maps in the 7-10 day period.  

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Its the same old broken record. Fleeting (marginal) cold with a possible storm developing in the southern plains. There is decent cold high pressure to the NE on this panel with some CAD, but its on the move. It's another thread the needle tease that will deteriorate in another few model cycles.

1582264800-MGig2KRwM1c.png

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21 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Look, I am not an expert, but these are the best looking snow maps we have had under 10 days on EPS in over a month and it is the only game in town for the next two weeks.  At least until 0Z tonight we have a seat in the cheap seats of the snow bowl stadium.

You can't just base it off of "best looking snow maps". You have to look at the pattern we are in which is not conducive for snow but that also doesn't mean there couldn't be a favorable window around that time that can produce but it's very doubtful.

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