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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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4 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Last year's Jan storm was great. Nothing can make up for the horrendous year we've had so far, but that storm was pretty great. Long duration cold smoke. Made the mistake of staying up for that late night meso which turned out to be the lowest rates of the 30 hour storm haha

Whoa! Good to hear from you. Been busy this winter!?  Said nobody ever. :lol: 

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15 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Heya! I've been good. Busy with school, but I guess it's good that I'm not being distracted by winter weather threats? I've been checking in every once in a while though

Yes--you have been all the better for being too busy to check in here regularly! (But undoubtedly you've felt the crapiness of the pattern, lol)

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9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

6.6” isn’t significant?  

If you want to use that storm as the basis to justify the last 4 years as being "normal".

No. It isn't.

Besides, that wasn't the point. The jackpot was so small that even though it happened north of DC, BWI (which is south of Baltimore) only managed 6.6. That is a very small compact area.

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GEFS has been incrementally trying to get to a more favorable pattern in the LR. This is a pretty decent look and would be workable. Still too much blue up top. Not super cold, but at least chilly. EPS persists with too much AK trough and mild air in our source region. GEPS  looks kinda decent, but not as good as the GEFS- sort of in between the other 2. So as usual, we wait. At least there are some signs of possible changes.

1582696800-mVQ1zp0lUiw.png

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GEFS has been incrementally trying to get to a more favorable pattern in the LR. This is a pretty decent look and would be workable. Still too much blue up top. Not super cold, but at least chilly. EPS persists with too much AK trough and mild air in our source region. GEPS  looks kinda decent, but not as good as the GEFS- sort of in between the other 2. So as usual, we wait. At least there are some signs of possible changes.
1582696800-mVQ1zp0lUiw.png&key=39a8769358b90fe0ab11afc4ae4939a988c0f4787fea2fa53e853c9ff7bcbcb7
I noticed eps had some blue in the southeast around feb 20
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1 minute ago, Ji said:
1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

GEFS has been incrementally trying to get to a more favorable pattern in the LR. This is a pretty decent look and would be workable. Still too much blue up top. Not super cold, but at least chilly. EPS persists with too much AK trough and mild air in our source region. GEPS  looks kinda decent, but not as good as the GEFS- sort of in between the other 2. So as usual, we wait. At least there are some signs of possible changes.
 

I noticed eps had some blue in the southeast around feb 20

At this point I am just monitoring the big picture LW pattern for possible favorable shifts. Too far out to get into details. We are stuck in the suck for at least the next 10 days in all likelihood. Problem with the EPS in the LR is it maintains a strong AK vortex that just pumps Pacific air into N America. No legit cold air even close to us at day 15.

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At this point I am just monitoring the big picture LW pattern for possible favorable shifts. Too far out to get into details. We are stuck in the suck for at least the next 10 days in all likelihood. Problem with the EPS in the LR is it maintains a strong AK vortex that just pumps Pacific air into N America. No legit cold air even close to us at day 15.
Yep...euro shows all blue in the same areas that we talk about the ridge bridge smh
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16 minutes ago, Ji said:
37 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:
At this point I am just monitoring the big picture LW pattern for possible favorable shifts. Too far out to get into details. We are stuck in the suck for at least the next 10 days in all likelihood. Problem with the EPS in the LR is it maintains a strong AK vortex that just pumps Pacific air into N America. No legit cold air even close to us at day 15.

Yep...euro shows all blue in the same areas that we talk about the ridge bridge smh

Had some hopes for that Ridge Bridge to defray some of the suckage. But alas, that was just another pipe dream.

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https://m.jpost.com/International/El-Niño-could-hit-at-the-end-of-2020-physicists-warn-612747

El Niño 2020-21 Let's GO! And I don't mean these stupid fake ninos of the last couple years. Bonafide MOD NINO...(but not a super one...might not do us much good, lol)

And I don't care how this is 9 months too early...want long range? Here's your long range! :D:D:P

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15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Okay...so then what happened in the following year? Nina? (looks like that was crappy...but with 8.7 inches instead of 1.8, lol)

It wasn’t too bad. There was snow around Christmas, and I had over 20” in March but don’t remember much in between.

Its also the year @Bob Chill threatened to bring a flamethrower to my yard :lol:

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8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Okay...so then what happened in the following year? (2012-13) Nina? (looks like that was crappy...but with 8.7 inches instead of 1.8, lol)

12-13 was the standard struggle for us. Tale of 2 halves near the cities. -PNA killed us early but that slowly progressed to pretty decent blocking towards the end and it did sorta pay off. Mar 2013 was just a subtle bad break at the last minute. It was a great setup for WAA precip followed by a closed ULL. The problem was the ULL deepened rapidly down in southern VA and cut off the WAA feed. Then it took a jog SE off the coast of VA beach and we were too far away from the action to get anything sustained the next day. It was a marginal temp situation (common) that could have been a really big event or even a good one as is if it was colder. It was simple reasons though and had nothing to do with the year itself being a disaster. 

The thing about our region is we are in the battle zone. We can get walloped so it "has the feel" of a big storm town but they simply don't come easy because of all the little things (mostly temps). Near misses and struggles are part of normal daily life here. Always has been since I've been around MD (1972) and always will be. For people that have been around a long time it's been a bit of shock and awe since Jan 2000. We've had quite a few very large events. Way more than any previous period (60s included). If anything, it's unusual and anomalous that we've had so many big storms over the last 20 years. 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

12-13 was the standard struggle for us. Tale of 2 halves near the cities. -PNA killed us early but that slowly progressed to pretty decent blocking towards the end and it did sorta pay off. Mar 2013 was just a subtle bad break at the last minute. It was a great setup for WAA precip followed by a closed ULL. The problem was the ULL deepened rapidly down in southern VA and cut off the WAA feed. Then it took a jog SE off the coast of VA beach and we were too far away from the action to get anything sustained the next day. It was a marginal temp situation (common) that could have been a really big event or even a good one as is if it was colder. It was simple reasons though and had nothing to do with the year itself being a disaster. 

The thing about our region is we are in the battle zone. We can get walloped so it "has the feel" of a big storm town but they simply don't come easy because of all the little things (mostly temps). Near misses and struggles are part of normal daily life here. Always has been since I've been around MD (1972) and always will be. For people that have been around a long time it's been a bit of shock and awe since Jan 2000. We've had quite a few very large events. Way more than any previous period (60s included). If anything, it's unusual and anomalous that we've had so many big storms over the last 20 years. 

True...I don't know of a another stretch where you could count on a 12" storm every 3-4 years...and a two-foot every 6-7 years. We had been able to time that with a watch...but, barring a bit of a miracle, it looks like that stretch may end this year...

And I'm well aware of the battle zone...but even around here...a year like this is particularly rough (and now it's been 4 years since the last big one...and we've only had to shovel once in the last 4 years)

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