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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

GEFS and GEPS are trying to offer up a somewhat different look towards the end of the month. The mean suggests a PNA ridge, but still not a great look up top and not really a cold look overall, but it would be better than the rut we are in now. Probably the last chance to shift the pattern to something more favorable for a March hail Mary though, so something to keep an eye on over the next few days. Lets see if the EPS gets on board.

That look could have worked better in January. But the high latitudes are becoming a bigger and bigger deal as we get later in winter. If the NAO stays +++++ its going to be difficult to get a positive result without an east based epo ridge. 

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That look could have worked better in January. But the high latitudes are becoming a bigger and bigger deal as we get later in winter. If the NAO stays +++++ its going to be difficult to get a positive result without an east based epo ridge. 

Have not looked at individual members, but I would bet there is plenty of conflict with that look on the mean. It is also difficult to tell with the low res/smoothing if there is any relaxation up top in the LR. I didn't look at the teleconnections on the latest runs but last I looked there were no real signs the AO was going below +2. The "good" on the GEFS in the LR is the AK trough looks like it wont park and may weaken/retro into a decent spot, and the +PNA look. Who knows how "real" it is or if it will to evolve into something better. More than likely it will be another 'failed attempt' by the guidance and we see no appreciable changes. 

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14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Everyone can root for whatever they want since it doesn’t actually affect the weather.  So everyone can root for whatever they want without any guilt because there is no causality. Unless other people wanting cold or warm bothers you...in which case may I suggest you find something (and it shouldn’t be hard) more productive to worry about!  

Like endlessly worrying about being fringed in every event when you always end up with the highest totals? 

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The beat continues:

GEFS snowfall mean for College Park is less than 0.1" with no member having more than 1" during the next 10 days.  During the same time period only 1 EPS member has more than 1".  During days 10-15 the EPS mean is almost an inch driven by one member that shows a big storm around the 21st. 

You want indices:

NAO and cousin AO + throughout both GEFS and EPS.  EPS very +. 

EPO + throughout but GEFS EPS does approach zero near the end of the run

PNA - until at least the 23rd

With the exception of next Friday and Saturday and perhaps the following Thursday (EPS only), highs are 10-15 degrees above normal. 

Barring a fluke,  it looks like we'll need a very late February or early March save (brought to you by Captain Obvious) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Did DCA not finish with above normal season snow last year?

Last year was a very decent year for our area. Top 30th percentile easy. Yes, Baltimore crew got shorted in Jan but it was still a respectable event outside of the low lying UHI areas. Everyone can feel however they want but I really don't follow any of the logic saying Jan 2016 was the last good event and it's been a multi year awful stretch. All statistical metrics say otherwise. The 2000 decade only had 02-03 or 09-10 if you think last year was terrrible

Eta: Jan 2000 was such an incredible reverse bust that it made the whole 99-00 winter memorable. 

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19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Last year was a very decent year for our area. Top 30th percentile easy. Yes, Baltimore crew got shorted in Jan but it was still a respectable event outside of the low lying UHI areas. Everyone can feel however they want but I really don't follow any of the logic saying Jan 2016 was the last good event and it's been a multi year awful stretch. All statistical metrics say otherwise. The 2000 decade only had 02-03 or 09-10 if you think last year was terrrible

Eta: Jan 2000 was such an incredible reverse bust that it made the whole 99-00 winter memorable. 

Yeah hit at the turn of the year, forgot that

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49 minutes ago, PCT_ATC said:

yes they did 16.9"   funny how I dont remember it!     

https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/dcasnow.pdfimage.png

... at least I have an excuse was in Tucson.  I also missed the March storm from a couple of years ago - spring training.  I'm having a hard time recalling the last time I saw it snow for more than a few seconds during daylight hours here. 

18 UT GFS gives a trace of snow to the northern tier of MD Wednesday evening

 

 

 

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48 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Last year was a very decent year for our area. Top 30th percentile easy. Yes, Baltimore crew got shorted in Jan but it was still a respectable event outside of the low lying UHI areas. Everyone can feel however they want but I really don't follow any of the logic saying Jan 2016 was the last good event and it's been a multi year awful stretch. All statistical metrics say otherwise. The 2000 decade only had 02-03 or 09-10 if you think last year was terrrible

Eta: Jan 2000 was such an incredible reverse bust that it made the whole 99-00 winter memorable. 

January 2016 was absolutely, at least for my area, the last good event, unless your expectations for an event are quite low. An event worthy of saying a winter was good is at least storm warning level. Minor events can be good events, especially if they overperform or they are cold smoke, but they don't make a winter unless there is a parade of them. Just my opinion though.

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Last winter was decent especially compared to this winter.  But for some reason everyone predicted an epic winter last year, and when that didn't happen, people were much more disappointed than they otherwise would have been.  In retrospect it wasn't a bad winter, but everyone here seemed to have high expectations for some reason.  I hadn't heard much about the MJO until last season, when that term was thrown around every day it seems.

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50 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

January 2016 was absolutely, at least for my area, the last good event, unless your expectations for an event are quite low. An event worthy of saying a winter was good is at least storm warning level. Minor events can be good events, especially if they overperform or they are cold smoke, but they don't make a winter unless there is a parade of them. Just my opinion though.

I totally understand location specific. I was just pointing out that we had 8 events on the season and most got above normal snow. That's not a disaster in my book but agree that 2016 was the last biggie regionwide. Fairly active with most events over 1". I don't remember what bwi got. Foggy memory says mid teens.

Years like this remind us how bad we can suck. Every decade since I've been alive has a disaster imbedded in the mix. Hopefully this is getting the dud of 2020-30 out of the way...

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2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

This did just happen last year.

5JOMFBPLXRHOHERFG3COD2MC4Q.png

That map really shows just how isolated the significant snowfall was. Even BWI only got 6.6. No its not a bad storm for DC, but when thats all you have to show for the last 4 years....well.... it is why DC will probably have its worst 4 year snowless stretch in the history of record keeping.

 

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Last year was a very decent year for our area. Top 30th percentile easy. Yes, Baltimore crew got shorted in Jan but it was still a respectable event outside of the low lying UHI areas. Everyone can feel however they want but I really don't follow any of the logic saying Jan 2016 was the last good event and it's been a multi year awful stretch. All statistical metrics say otherwise. The 2000 decade only had 02-03 or 09-10 if you think last year was terrrible

Eta: Jan 2000 was such an incredible reverse bust that it made the whole 99-00 winter memorable. 

In retrospect, last year wasn't awful for my yard, but every event save for one managed to under perform in one way or another, and the Jan event was basically half of what it was supposed to be for northern/eastern areas.

Last 3 winters the totals here were 8, 19.2, and 12 last winter. The second Nina winter was slightly above climo avg here, so no complaints. I have had  four 5"+ events in that span since the 2016 storm. There have obviously been worse stretches.

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1 hour ago, RevWarReenactor said:

That map really shows just how isolated the significant snowfall was. Even BWI only got 6.6. No its not a bad storm for DC, but when thats all you have to show for the last 4 years....well.... it is why DC will probably have its worst 4 year snowless stretch in the history of record keeping.

 

6.6” isn’t significant?  

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8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Agree with the first part but region wide last year was big differences with ytd snowfall totals . Some areas really struggled and it was garbage   Up here was a solid season of many events .

You also closely track stray ice pellets in April. I suspect your definition of a good season would include many tiny non-events that add up to a few inches in total.

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