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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, anotherman said:


“The model has no idea what will happen yet.” GFS mantra

GEFS has been really sh!tty this year. Jumpy AF and gets reasonable ens range stuff wrong regularly. I really don't trust it at all anymore. It's no different than just guessing yourself unless the pattern is really stable. Any model should get that right though. 

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31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

12z gefs doesn't support the suppressed solution much at all. A mix of ok hits and/or rain for the most part. Decent agreement that the shortwave/ULL makes a run at us. Some west tracks in there for sure. 

ETA: after looping the member solutions there is a cluster with a slider. Pretty much an equal mix of slider, snow, mixed, and rain. Basically the GEFS says all options on the table and the model has no idea what will happen yet. 

But WE know how this will play out and suppression wont be the final solution. 

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21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I have a gut feeling it will be quite different than 0z but still suck eggs

i could see a mix/rain to snow setup with this based on how that front and ss vort interact.  with that subtropical ridge i wouldn't expect a slider, but i suppose anything is possible.

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Thought somebody else said that the 12z GEFS had the whole mix of solutions in there?

Maybe individuals. I dont have access. Using the means and using the lp plots map which there really arent any members that I see worth a damn. Even the accum precip mean is meh for late next week.

Eta: with that said I am still not buying what the gfs family is selling and as you know dont believe the suppressed looks at least at this point. 

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Maybe individuals. I dont have access. Using the means and using the lp plots map which there really arent any members that I see worth a damn. Even the accum precip mean is meh for late next week.

Well the fact that the op didn't quite make it all the way up this run...perhaps that's not so surprising. Still 7 days away...

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9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Haven't looked at individuals but Eps looks a bit better at H5 for  next Friday . Better confluence . Its happening. 

Liked a couple of things I saw but I am still Meh about the over all look that would probably favor something cutting to our west. Indiv ensemble members for the most part look like they support that idea (cutting west) though there are a few with somewhat suppressed solutions to the south. 

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