Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
 Share

Recommended Posts

Just now, Ji said:

the main thing we need that we didnt get from the euro is cold air. Lets make sure we get the cold air first

I didn't like 0z ens suite. If anything the 0z runs strengthen the case for a nothingburger more than showing promise. We'll see if that flips here over the next few hours. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I didn't like 0z ens suite. If anything the 0z runs strengthen the case for a nothingburger more than showing promise. We'll see if that flips here over the next few hours. 

i dont think we have gotten consecutive good runs of anything this winter. Everytime something promising shows up...its quickly dashed the next run. Look at the 00z and 12z Icon

  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

i dont think we have gotten consecutive good runs of anything this winter. Everytime something promising shows up...its quickly dashed the next run. Look at the 00z and 12z Icon

Did you look at the euro control from 0z? MA special. Just like the 09-10 storms. Big hit with WAA followed by a CCB shellacking. You get almost 2 feet. The only issue is it's d13-14. Big ones are sniffed out early and we're due and it's Feb and blah blah blah....

ETA: lol- it's a blocked 36-48 hour storm. dropping 1.5 - 3"+ of QPF region wide. Did someone mention the 0z control last night? One of the best digital storms of the year. 

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Did you look at the euro control from 0z? MA special. Just like the 09-10 storms. Big hit with WAA followed by a CCB shellacking. You get almost 2 feet. The only issue is it's d13-14. Big ones are sniffed out early and we're due and it's Feb and blah blah blah....

the euro control is last years FV3 on drugs. When has the euro control every come close to verifying. The EPS last night basically sucked through D15

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Ji said:

the euro control is last years FV3 on drugs. When has the euro control every come close to verifying. The EPS last night basically sucked through D15

At least look at the multi param panels starting at hr330. It even reminds me of Jan 16... When you only have fantasy digital snow it's nice to see a really big fantasy storm even if the odds are terrible. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Did you look at the euro control from 0z? MA special. Just like the 09-10 storms. Big hit with WAA followed by a CCB shellacking. You get almost 2 feet. The only issue is it's d13-14. Big ones are sniffed out early and we're due and it's Feb and blah blah blah....

The Euro and/or GFS  has had something for the VD/PD weekend on and off for at least 2 weeks.  I’m not holding my breath this time, but maybe one of these long term storms will actually pay off. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Bob Chill said:

I'd have to review Jan 2016 again because my detailed memory of the upper levels is lacking but there are structural similarities. Unusual west based block moving lock step with the ULL and a beast 50/50 in place. If it's going to be a one and done year let's do it this way...

bdRXt0O.png

dude there is a whole thread that got bumped that has everything you need in it

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, stormtracker said:

If this thing ends up hitting, my criteria for trying to get out of this work trip next week is 10+.   Anybody have a good excuse I could come up with?  You know, just in case.

Start coughing on Tuesday. Casually mention you have family that travel to China on a regular basis. Inquire as to the status of the Coronavirus. Then just stand back and let it happen.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 12
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

If this thing ends up hitting, my criteria for trying to get out of this work trip next week is 10+.   Anybody have a good excuse I could come up with?  You know, just in case.

Just drink 18 coronas the night before and call in the morning and just say I'm sick from Corona. Perfectly truthful and 100% chance of getting off work. 

  • Like 4
  • Haha 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

If this thing ends up hitting, my criteria for trying to get out of this work trip next week is 10+.   Anybody have a good excuse I could come up with?  You know, just in case.

I threw my back out, I caught a stomach bug, my 3rd cousin died, or the dog ate my homework should do the trick. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z gefs doesn't support the suppressed solution much at all. A mix of ok hits and/or rain for the most part. Decent agreement that the shortwave/ULL makes a run at us. Some west tracks in there for sure. 

ETA: after looping the member solutions there is a cluster with a slider. Pretty much an equal mix of slider, snow, mixed, and rain. Basically the GEFS says all options on the table and the model has no idea what will happen yet. 

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

If this thing ends up hitting, my criteria for trying to get out of this work trip next week is 10+.   Anybody have a good excuse I could come up with?  You know, just in case.

Hemmoroids is always a reliable excuse 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

12z gefs doesn't support the suppressed solution much at all. A mix of ok hits and/or rain for the most part. Decent agreement that the shortwave/ULL makes a run at us. Some west tracks in there for sure. 

ETA: after looping the member solutions there is a cluster with a slider. Pretty much an equal mix of slider, snow, mixed, and rain. Basically the GEFS says all options on the table and the model has no idea what will happen yet. 

translation: Euro wont budge

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

12z gefs doesn't support the suppressed solution much at all. A mix of ok hits and/or rain for the most part. Decent agreement that the shortwave/ULL makes a run at us. Some west tracks in there for sure. 

ETA: after looping the member solutions there is a cluster with a slider. Pretty much an equal mix of slider, snow, mixed, and rain. Basically the GEFS says all options on the table and the model has no idea what will happen yet. 

Yeah, 24hr precip panel for the period look worse than at 6z or 0z. .75 line went from southern md at 6z to southern va at 12z. Sounds like a good number of whiffs or supresssd looks. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z gefs doesn't support the suppressed solution much at all. A mix of ok hits and/or rain for the most part. Decent agreement that the shortwave/ULL makes a run at us. Some west tracks in there for sure. 
ETA: after looping the member solutions there is a cluster with a slider. Pretty much an equal mix of slider, snow, mixed, and rain. Basically the GEFS says all options on the table and the model has no idea what will happen yet. 

“The model has no idea what will happen yet.” GFS mantra
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...