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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

ICON wont be suppressed. Not sure how amped and how far N or W it will be tho.

Eta: trending to last nights UKIE. Suppression isnt going to be the way we fail. 

I've been burned with that statement several times over the years. I myself see how we can easily Fail with suppression if the general look presented with the GEFS/GFS is somewhat right. Get one of those pieces of energy rotating around the pv to ride just in front of the Southwest energy as it moves eastward and we are going to see it squashed/suppressed to our south potentially quite a bit depending on the timing and how far south that pv drops.

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2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I've been burned with that statement several times over the years. I myself see how we can easily Fail with suppression if the general look presented with the GEFS/GFS is somewhat right. Get one of those pieces of energy rotating around the pv to ride just in front of the Southwest energy as it moves eastward and we are going to see it squashed/suppressed to our south potentially quite a bit depending on the timing and how far south that pv drops.

I cant imagine that being our failure mode. Not this winter. I mean, yeah we could see a weak ass strung out wave with barely a surface reflection slide to our south, but probably not a legit wave. I would be shocked. Stranger things have happened though, I am sure.

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44 minutes ago, frd said:

Ha ha that sounds Isotherm-ish ......  but yeah makes perfect sense. The lag effect and all. 

In regards to your mention of the warm oceans I know HM posted some very interesting info on the ocean temps and SST profile near Aussie along with the +IOD. 

Hopefully that look changes by next year, as Anthony believes it effected everything downstream and the jet as well.  

I feel the -NAO makes a winter return in a big way either next year or the year after. 

 

I don't know if its "lag effect" or if the actual effect that causes the propensity for a -NAO is the increasing solar radiation while in a still relatively low background state.  I know in the last few months I have done a little more digging into the statistics and the propensity for more -NAO AFTER the solar minimum is obvious.  Furthermore...some of the "correlations" I've seen people post regarding certain factors while in "low solar" state when you examine the years seem to be skewed by the extreme -NAO from the members of the data set that occurred AFTER the solar minimum but still in a low solar background state.  There doesn't seem to be as much effect in low solar before the minimum.  You have to be careful when using data sets that only include a limited number of years that one subset within the larger set isn't skewing the results.  Either way we SHOULD get some -NAO years coming up.  If we go another 3 years after a solar minimum with no blocking THEN I would start to join the "why can't we get blocking anymore" group.  

ETA:  Had I done some of the data analysis I did a few weeks ago wrt the solar cycle and QBO...I probably would not have been as bullish (wrong) about this winter.  Live and learn.  I will not make that mistake again.  

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GFS is improved but I'm not sure it is handling the NS correctly and is likely up to its antics of overdoing the cold push. Better baby steps so far at 12z. At least @Ji now has the digital snow on some guidance he was begging for last night.

I'd like the GFS to stay south until about Monday night, honestly. 

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11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GFS is improved but I'm not sure it is handling the NS correctly and is likely up to its antics of overdoing the cold push. Better baby steps so far at 12z. At least @Ji now has the digital snow on some guidance he was begging for last night.

GFS wasn't far from a good if not very good solution. Speed that NS energy up just a little that is running just in front of the SW and we see that storm bump north somewhat for a decent event. Take out the trailing shortwave or have it lag farther behind and you have the potential for a coastal going to town in a good locale for our region.

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2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

GFS wasn't far from a good if not very good solution. Speed that NS energy up just a little that is running just in front of the SW and we see that storm bump north somewhat for a decent event. Take out the trailing shortwave or have it lag farther behind and you have the potential for a coastal going to town in a good locale for our region.

Best 'potential' of the season. Still a week out tho. Maybe....just maybe some Valentines Day love.:wub:

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4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Best 'potential' of the season. Still a week out tho. Maybe....just maybe some Valentines Day love.:wub:

I fully expect that we are going to see a lot of different solutions pop up on the models over the coming days. Just the nature of the beast with the features in play where different timing will mean a world of difference with solutions. Come Tue/Wed is when I will start taking the models somewhat seriously, until then I am just along for the ride.

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

what sucks is i think this setup is do or die. We mess this up and its probably our last chance

I have no expectations. It's another thread-the-needle type where you are fighting the main teleconnections that don't support a significant snow event. How many times have we had a big snow under those parameters?

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

There are too many scattered pieces . If you go back to prior runs of gfs and cmc those pieces are just now showing up. When this happens I think it makes models jumpy and unreliable at range.

the main thing we need that we didnt get from the euro is cold air. Lets make sure we get the cold air first

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