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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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Saw some teases for a potential Big Dog showing up for around the Friday time period. After looking over the overnight GEFS and the EPS I would probably put that on the back burner for the time being. To get a Big Dog so much has to go right with several features and good timing, that is to say if all the features actually exist, that at 6/7 days it is asking a lot of the models. That said I think the odds aren't too bad for a 2/4, 3/6 type of event IF we actually see a further south drop of the PV in the general Hudson Bay region as the GEFS has. EPS doesn't have this and the GEPS is a compromise between the two.

 

Below we have the EPS. It has the features in place, 2 pieces of energy rotating around the PV and energy ejecting out of the SW. But it has 2 fatal flaws. The PV is too far north and the second piece of energy is dropping down into the SW strengthening it. The result of these two things is pretty much a disaster of epic proportions (nod to @Ji :D). What we see is stronger height builds in the east in response to the stronger trough in the west and any suppression that is being created by the PV and associated energy rotating around it is too far north to counter react it. Thus the energy/low in the south is ejecting too soon and shooting up to our west.

eps132.gif.c5e4b2e2edabccb7cecb38e9e2bf1b2c.gif

 

But if we look at the GEFS we are seeing a farther south drop of the pv in a favorable locale, which is first thing we need to see, and we are also seeing the second piece of energy bypassing the SW trough and moving eastward. Long story short, this is creating the suppression we need. Now if it was only that simple for getting a Big Dog out of this look, but it is not. The timing of the ejection of the SW energy in relation to those two pieces of energy rotating around the pv is key as well. What we will see is a waxing and waning of the suppression created by these two pieces of energy (first piece of energy is setting the boundary for the 2nd) and that will be key as to whether we end up with a stronger system running up from the south/coast or a weaker system suppressed more to the south or anything in between. That is if we don't see the NS outrun the SWE and we end up with a cutter (barring a 3rd piece of energy rotating around reinforcing the suppression and/or initiating a coastal a couple days later). Really at this point being at 6/7 days all options are still pretty much on the table considering this will be all about timing, with a Big Dog pretty much low on the list of probabilities. 

gefs132.gif.9ede257cbbdb68350795171d2496bca9.gif

 

Now knowing what is in play at this point on the models I probably wouldn't take any one solution to heart. This probably won't be somewhat resolved until we get inside 3 days and that may be rushing it. But if we can see a semblance of this look at that point I might start biting at the idea of a possible Big Dog. But at this time I will set my sights on a minor event and if we get it I will consider it a win.

 

 

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5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

The power of the tongue, Ji...you spoke this model run into existence, lol Yeah that's odd that it wouldn't be anywhere close in temperatures or otherwise...(and you'd think with the Ukie even showing what it did...this would be different)

Isnt the ukie at H5 phasing too far West tho and also pumping heights out ahead in the east? 

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52 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

And let the games begin (for next Friday). 06Z gfs ejects the SW energy too quickly and it is getting squashed/sheered out by the first piece of energy rotating around the pv.

Even the NAVGEM has the bowling ball and appears threatening. GFS is out to lunch imo. Bigger fail chance is going to be a phase too soon/amped solution and not flat squashed. 

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