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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Tpv se of hudson that becomes a 50/50 and a closed low tracking the deep south. 

If that's right it's a pretty big block. Could be too much. We'll know in 3 days or so.

gfs_z500a_nhem_25.png

Ill take my chances with that look. It definitely gives us wiggleroom. 

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22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Damn, ICON bringing the HECS. Straight river out of the gulf into a nasty 50/50 blocked high. Would be 1 foot of waa and another with the CCB. Nyc north would get nothing. A true MA special. Prob wrong but that's the best storm at hr180 I've seen this year. 

What a squeeze play...

icon_z500_vort_atl_61.png

That's an ICONic look!

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:
6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
Tpv se of hudson that becomes a 50/50 and a closed low tracking the deep south. 
If that's right it's a pretty big block. Could be too much. We'll know in 3 days or so.
gfs_z500a_nhem_25.png&key=e1993294d161129a4b31ea336f0adc1d58d9d8604ecba238b2e81e3b1cddfd4f

Ya we cant waste this....may be our only chance this season. I bet sometime screws us and it would be something ironic like too much blocking lol..

I agree that this may be our only shot...just gotta hope we have PD weekend history on our side! (I don't even wanna think about "too much blocking"...the fact that that is even on the table of outcomes is truly ironic. But in a regime like this, you'd think it would be hard for that to get "too much", lol We shall see...)

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12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

All this chasing d15 or d150 or whatever and a big storm might sneak up on us inside of 8 days. 

The Great VD Storm of 2020 has legs and shouldn't be referred to as sneaky imo. The planetary alignment, SPV pummelling, and other LR ens data including weekly charts have all been signaling a large longwave event in the East during this time frame. Hopefully it comes together!

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11 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

GFS ,Icon and Gem all have a bowling ball  getting ready to traverse the deep south in about 4 days.

gem_z500_vort_us_19.png

icon_z500_vort_us_37.png

gfs_z500_vort_us_19-1.png

GFS and CMC say no VD storm and have the same system with a stale airmass 2 days later. 

Eta: CMC a little slower departing the hp. In any event something wants to pop between Fri and Sun it appears

 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

As long as we can time a slow moving ULL to turn the corner right into transient confluence we're good. Can't really think of anything that can go wrong. 

Looks like to much of a good thing on the gem with confluence pressing down and squashing the storm. Honestly it feels pretty good talking about too much confluence rather  than never ending storm tracks to our nw. Im certainly not worried at this point that if there is an actual storm that its a southern slider.

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GFS and CMC say no VD storm and have the same system with a stale airmass 2 days later. 

Gfs and gem let confluence win out initially. That's the last worry on my mind lol. This is probably the best look weve had so far this winter.

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