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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm still not clear on the difference between BECS, MECS, and HECS (what amounts constitute each?). But I am going out on a limb and say...if we see anything that can be legit shoveled (that is 5"+) this year...it might just be a foot in the cities. Based on our history, a shocker in the next 8-12 days wouldn't surprise me as much (but then again slightly surprising given this regime) BUT...obviously, we gotta see if the +AO monster will relent just enough, and just long enough...when the precip nears. I'm still holding out hope, lol (but this is probably the most hostile regime to pull this off with...and I know we'll need some good fortune)

So essentially...we have 27-year history versus the most hostile +AO we've ever seen in years. Who shall win? We'll find out soon enough...

Allow me to clear it all up.

None of them ever happen :lol:

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37 minutes ago, Ji said:

MECS--February 2014--any storm that falls into the 10-18 inch range MAJOR

HECS---18 inches-2 Feet+ the once in a life time storms. HISTORICAL

BECS-dosent exist---Noahs Flood(40 days/40 nights) but its all snow

40 days and 40 nights but its 33 and rain the whole time

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24 minutes ago, yoda said:

I'll take #31 please... but you know it will likely end up being #6

Yeah, #6 would be one of those that @Bob Chill would want to kick in the nads!!  (Recalling his comment from weeks ago, when one day nearly all GEFS ensemble members had good or great snow over us, except for one!!!)

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16 minutes ago, yoda said:

18z GFS is a miss for VDay... but intriguing enough to keep watch

It has had a suppressed wave for 3 straight runs now. Euro had a flat/suppressed wave today too around the 15th. Something to keep an eye on for sure.

The way this winter has gone, it will probably be a flat, strung out, weak pos, followed by an amped cutter as the cold departs. Or, maybe we will see some legit changes and a turning of the worm. Law of averages/we are due and shiit.

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11 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Seems fitting we’d now miss one to the south and NC will get a big storm. Watch this be the one time this season the cold press gets stronger.  

Fine by me. I'll take EPS #6 and post pictures from my front porch! 

Seriously, though, some of the dogwoods and cherry trees already have full bloom flowers on them. Most Grass is green. Even the Bermuda is coming to life. All of the mixed grasses are green and have already been mowed in my neighborhood.  

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Seems fitting we’d now miss one to the south and NC will get a big storm. Watch this be the one time this season the cold press gets stronger.  

It would be very fitting right? I don't have strong feelings one way or the other right now because next week never looked like it does now until the last few days. I wouldn't put my money on deep cold and suppressed storms. We've had a number of LR looks showing that and it never remotely came close to verifying. Under 10 days now so this time is a little different. Time will tell

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

It would be very fitting right? I don't have strong feelings one way or the other right now because next week never looked like it does now until the last few days. I wouldn't put my money on deep cold and suppressed storms. We've had a number of LR looks showing that and it never remotely came close to verifying. Under 10 days now so this time is a little different. Time will tell

You'd like to think a blind squirrel will find a nut. I mean eventually these models will verify, even if by default 

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3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

It would be very fitting right? I don't have strong feelings one way or the other right now because next week never looked like it does now until the last few days. I wouldn't put my money on deep cold and suppressed storms. We've had a number of LR looks showing that and it never remotely came close to verifying. Under 10 days now so this time is a little different. Time will tell

Bob, just seems like we are in a bad decadal pattern at this point. 2003-2014 was a good run per historical norms. We are in a bad period. Starting in 2017-ish, so we have a few more years to go.The Blizzard of 2016 was unappreciated by many because it seemed lame compared to the 2009-2010 HECS events, but by 2024 we will be begging for half of it.

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