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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, Steve25 said:

I'll be the voice of optimism. I'm just happy the odds seem to be increasing of seeing snow fall. It may be 40 degrees with no accumulation, but I'll enjoy what we can get lol

I’ve seen that enough times already. I need my first storm that at least produces a complete covering of the blades of grass and complete road caving. I haven’t seen that yet. This GFS run doesn’t do it for me verbatim. 

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:
5 minutes ago, LP08 said:
You received .5 digital inches at 12z.  You’re up to 1.5 now.  Progress!

It washes out and it's too warm. It's great for Kentucky though lol

That's the part that has me mostly disinterested. It's close on the heels of the Friday storm, the flow is fast/progressive, and the wave dampens as it moves east. With marginal temps we need something more dynamic to get more than snow tv or a coating.

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That's the part that has me mostly disinterested. It's close on the heels of the Friday storm, the flow is fast/progressive, and the wave dampens as it moves east. With marginal temps we need something more dynamic to get more than snow tv or a coating.

If that sw digs a bit more it would slow it down wouldn’t it. Maybe get a bit more separation?

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The gfs is doing an excellent job at keeping Ji from latching onto an unrealistic run and then hating his 3-6 sat night. 
I thought the gfs looked great. You can easily see how this can pop but you can't do that if you only look at surface panels...
Okay boss...so this is the real bob chill storm.
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So yeah, the sfc temps look a tad high along the i-95 corridor, but even if it's 34, that's a wet snow sounding with such a shallow layer of "warmth" at the ground.    Add in the fact that the GFS has been running warm at the sfc in recent winter events here and the fact that it's at night, and I'll be very happy with what will be falling if we can get some decent precip.

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1 minute ago, Ji said:
4 minutes ago, MD Snow said:
Gfs has another system with frozen to rain next Wednesday night. 

It has shown it once a day for the past week and then the very next run is all rain and 60

I think the 12z Euro had the entire region pushing/exceeding 70 next Wed. Even torched NE. Op runs..

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:
7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
The gfs is doing an excellent job at keeping Ji from latching onto an unrealistic run and then hating his 3-6 sat night. 
I thought the gfs looked great. You can easily see how this can pop but you can't do that if you only look at surface panels...

Okay boss...so this is the real bob chill storm.

Not just no... helllz noes. I never want a storm named after me again. I didn't want it when it happened in 2012. 

It's the only gd shortwave I've seen in a month that has real promise at d5. My interest has more to do with withdrawal than potential. The temp issues can prob  only be overcome if it winds up and stays south. Gfs runs surface lp to Pittsburgh. That's not going to work (and it didn't). Euro/eps like a track from KY thru Central VA. That works. 

If it's weak and lame then .2 - .3 qpf = 0-1"

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Been really busy. This weekend is starting to look like a very good chance. Basically the best way to make this pattern work...front clears then a nice virt pass timed up before the next ridge comes. These waves have a tendency to juice up a bit at the end too. 2.4” at DCA seems like a good idea to me. 

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