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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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16 minutes ago, H2O said:

In case anyone is wondering I know Bob and how he speaks.  Bob Chill is giving this storm a green light.  Its a go.  We can't fail now.  Best shot all fall/spring.  53 men and women in this together.  How can we lose?

Apologies to Dick Vermeil.

lol- yes and no. Weekend deal has my close attention but no green light until unanimous consensus inside of 72 hours. It's going to be a looooong 48 hours ahead. 

On another note... EPS is kinda weenieish d10+. 

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2 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

What’s gotten into the EPS?

Looks like it's starting to show a way for our region to be on the right side of the gradient at some point  d11+. As is it's a brief window of a few days with cold air overhead. It would only take 1 slow juicy gradient wave to launch our area out of the disaster zone. Guarded skepticism is warranted until it hits a range that is believable. I'm obviously pessimistic for now. If it breaks right we'll run naked in the streets. Or at least wearing candy apple red speedos. 

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

No, of course not. I only look 2 weeks down the line. Weather is like the stock market. You can make sense of it fairly often but no matter how much you know it can still surprise the F out of you. 

 

Especially when Ma Nature throws a Coronavirus at you like a +AO/+NAO combination. We just cant buy any real cold air this winter.

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17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Looks like it's starting to show a way for our region to be on the right side of the gradient at some point  d11+. As is it's a brief window of a few days with cold air overhead. It would only take 1 slow juicy gradient wave to launch our area out of the disaster zone. Guarded skepticism is warranted until it hits a range that is believable. I'm obviously pessimistic for now. If it breaks right we'll run naked in the streets. Or at least wearing candy apple red speedos.

Please let us know when it's safe to start talking about PD3....

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

12z EPS def showing upside surprise potential for the weekend. Nice run. Oddly, the CMC and GEPS don't have the wave at all. Hard to flat out ignore that but I will. Go EPS!

Looks like about 30% have nice hits.  Agreed, nice uptick for the weekend.  I am getting to the point where I want to believe this weekend will happened but am waiting until 12Z Friday.  I have birthday plans for the weekend and I am telling people we have to go out Saturday.  Everyone in my family is laughing at me.

 

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37 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Looks like it's starting to show a way for our region to be on the right side of the gradient at some point  d11+. As is it's a brief window of a few days with cold air overhead. It would only take 1 slow juicy gradient wave to launch our area out of the disaster zone. Guarded skepticism is warranted until it hits a range that is believable. I'm obviously pessimistic for now. If it breaks right we'll run naked in the streets. Or at least wearing candy apple red speedos. 

you should run naked in the streets next wed. Euro has JYO at 73!

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NWS Sterling not impressed with the weekend event.  Late afternoon Discussion excerpt.

A weak ridge of high pressure will pass over the area during the day Saturday, but will quickly retreat offshore Saturday Night as a fast moving shortwave approaches from the Ohio Valley. Dry conditions during the day Saturday will give way to light rain and snow Saturday Night as ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave overspreads the area. The shortwave will be rather compact and progressive, so the duration of the precipitation will only be around six hours at any given spot. As a result, any precipitation will be confined to the Saturday Night time period. Thermal profiles near the surface will be rather marginal for snow. So while a little bit of snow can`t be ruled out anywhere across the forecast area, the best chance for some minor snow accumulations will be to the north and west of I-95.

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25 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

NWS Sterling not impressed with the weekend event.  Late afternoon Discussion excerpt.

A weak ridge of high pressure will pass over the area during the day Saturday, but will quickly retreat offshore Saturday Night as a fast moving shortwave approaches from the Ohio Valley. Dry conditions during the day Saturday will give way to light rain and snow Saturday Night as ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave overspreads the area. The shortwave will be rather compact and progressive, so the duration of the precipitation will only be around six hours at any given spot. As a result, any precipitation will be confined to the Saturday Night time period. Thermal profiles near the surface will be rather marginal for snow. So while a little bit of snow can`t be ruled out anywhere across the forecast area, the best chance for some minor snow accumulations will be to the north and west of I-95.

ers wrote it :lol:

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7 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Same. Feel like this is going to be a classic rug pull.

Yeah, a little more than half of the runs are 1" or less for the majority of folks.....in a marginal temp situation thats white rain.  I mean its cool to see quite a few big hits but Id like to see more moderate solutions than there are. We'll see.

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