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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, Ji said:

snow tv---but it is snow not rain lol

This is a good setup for an upside surprise. I'm not spiking any footballs but all systems have been juicy this year whether they hit us or not (who cares cuz rain..). Looking just at h5 vort panels it looks healthy and track is good. Keep that locked in for now and see if we can catch a break when we're inside of 3 days. 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This is a good setup for an upside surprise. I'm not spiking any footballs but all systems have been juicy this year whether they hit us or not (who cares cuz rain..). Looking just at h5 vort panels it looks healthy and track is good. Keep that locked in for now and see if we can catch a break when we're inside of 3 days. 

528 thickness.  Cant complain about that even if the surface is warm. 

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A small handful of the upside solutions on the 00z ens runs for the euro were pretty powerful. It’s definitely a good sign that 12z is trending to a stronger shortwave when coupled with that BUT at 5 days out let’s not forget what happened to that thump we were tracking a few weeks ago from 5 days out...

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3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

528 thickness.  Cant complain about that even if the surface is warm. 

Just gotta sweat it out until Thursday or so. I don't care about any gyrations in surface panels as much as holding and increasing the upper level energy. Get a good strong vort pass overnight even with marginal air it should work out in some way. The nice thing about the track on the euro is surface winds turn northerly while it's precipitating. That's been a rare occurrence this year. We're usually fighting tooth and nail against southerly winds

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Just gotta sweat it out until Thursday or so. I don't care about any gyrations in surface panels as much as holding and increasing the upper level energy. Get a good strong vort pass overnight even with marginal air it should work out in some way. The nice thing about the track on the euro is surface winds turn northerly while it's precipitating. That's been a rare occurrence this year. We're usually fighting tooth and nail against southerly winds

in a few minutes...we will see the disappearance of Bobs banana high from yesterday 

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

There's nothing to look at imho beyond the weekend. Whatever comes next is going to be rainy and lame. Save yourself the stress and forget about next week. 

Hope we can pull off a PD weekend miracle, then (or something that week because after Feb 20th or so that's it for Feb (sure we could squeeze out an inch or two, but nothing beyond that has ever happened between the 20th and the end of the month, lol) Don't wanna look to March to salvage something...

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

12z EPS def showing upside surprise potential for the weekend. Nice run. Oddly, the CMC and GEPS don't have the wave at all. Hard to flat out ignore that but I will. Go EPS!

What is the EPS doing in the upside hits?  Slowing it down? Juicing up?  It’s perplexing to me

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Huggable multi param mean panel... The real fun starts as the whiffs drop out and big hits replace them over the next 4 days. 

XEkMw2K.png

Do you have the panel before this? I'm going to be at snowshoe this weekend from friday through Monday. Hoping to score some decent snowfall over the weekend.

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Just now, BristowWx said:

What is the EPS doing in the upside hits?  Slowing it down? Juicing up?  It’s perplexing to me

Strong juicy shortwave and good track. Still a fast mover no matter what. All the good ones look about the same with strength and track. Still plenty of crappy or whiff solutions. Just a notable uptick in the larger hits. 

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