Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
 Share

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

feels like Tuesday is a tad early to bail even though the year has been pretty dreadful. If the Euro starts to leak oil today then yeah...but until then I say the GFS hasn't had a grasp all winter from this distance

Even then it's too early as long as the shortwave remains intact. Once we get to 72 hours or less the clock starts really ticking on big adjustments. I'll reserve bailing until we're 72 hours out and all the oil leaked and the engine blows pistons out of the cylinder head. 

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Other than the distinct possibility of it being a weak sauce, progressive sw, marginal, fleeting cold, and it tracking too far north, nothing to worry about.

Nevermind...forget I said it, smh (I blame Bob, lol I took what he said about this kind of event USUALLY working for us a bit to literally, lol)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, I hate being mentally conditioned to fail. That's what made me step back last week. The upcoming period in general has a fatal flaw so I'm hanging onto the weekend shortwave because it's the only thing promising. Beyond that people need to not ignore the fact that longwave patterns act like rubber bands so as long as the troughs keep dropping in the west the height rises or north trend in the east can't be offset. The only thing that can offset a -PNA is blocking. Considering we have nearly record breaking unblocking there is no way I'll believe a long range prog showing snow on a gradient wave. Even PA/NY will struggle at times with this set of features. MD doesn't work with 2 strikes against like 90% of the time and that's what we have in the upper levels... at least 2 strikes against...

So are you cancelling winter after this weekend? (I was holding out a little hope and watching to see if we'd be looking at anything for next week by the end of this week. But if you're saying it's pretty much impossible for anything to work...I guess anything we'd see show up by say, this Friday, for next week...we shouldn't give it any credence, or?) Any chance of a fluke? (I know you'll say there's always a chance of a fluke...lol)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

feels like Tuesday is a tad early to bail even though the year has been pretty dreadful. If the Euro starts to leak oil today then yeah...but until then I say the GFS hasn't had a grasp all winter from this distance

I don't think anybody is giving up, nor should they...just way more pessimistic than I normally would be.  I'm still in.  The Euro will save us. :mellow:

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

In forum motherly fashion, she corrects the children's spelling ;)

 

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Yeah, gotta check my keyboard corrections round (around) here

to be fair, it was an obvious typo -- s and z are right next to each other. but i laughed at quarts to quartz and how drastically different they are. thats all :D 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So are you cancelling winter after this weekend? (I was holding out a little hope and watching to see if we'd be looking at anything for next week by the end of this week. But if you're saying it's pretty much impossible for anything to work...I guess anything we'd see show up by say, this Friday, for next week...we shouldn't give it any credence, or?) Any chance of a fluke? (I know you'll say there's always a chance of a fluke...lol)

No, of course not. I only look 2 weeks down the line. Weather is like the stock market. You can make sense of it fairly often but no matter how much you know it can still surprise the F out of you. 

I do think all the gradient waves are likely fails though. If you look at everything in totality it's a terrible and low probability way we get snow here. There's nothing to stop cold from running away and nothing to stop shortwaves from tracking north of us. It does look interesting beyond d12 but I'm done with anything d10+. It's been nothing but mirages and failures for 8 straight weeks. It would be insane to expect different outcomes until they are really close in time. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...