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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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26 minutes ago, Ji said:

well when there is nothing to track and virtually no hope..you hang to anything. In all seriousness...this Valentines day period has been interesting for a couple of days. Gfs keeps off and on showing something and the EPS snow ensembles seem to increase snow during that period. Will it work out? Probably no? Am i tracking it? Not heavily but what else am i going to track? our +7 AO and NAO lol

I don't disagree with anything you're saying. My issue is looking beyond the ranges I specified isn't really tracking and it hasn't been all year. Myself and many others have made many detailed d10+ posts this year but time and time again we all looked like morons as it rained on us or was +10 when it was supposed to be -5. It became really clear that I wasn't tracking weather as much as tracking using very inaccurate data. I don't blame the models. This year has been a tug of war with multiple drivers of the hemispheric patterns. Buried inside of all the ensemble runs was group of possible outcomes that varied greatly inside the mean. We all focused on the clusters that showed promise and ignored all the clusters that said warmth and rain will prevail. Now it's time to stick to persistence and ignore the promising clusters until the promising clusters overwhelm the ens suite. I'm not holding my breath...

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I don't disagree with anything you're saying. My issue is looking beyond the ranges I specified isn't really tracking and it hasn't been all year. Myself and many others have made many detailed d10+ posts this year but time and time again we all looked like morons as it rained on us or was +10 when it was supposed to be -5. It became really clear that I wasn't tracking weather as much as tracking using very inaccurate data. I don't blame the models. This year has been a tug of war with multiple drivers of the hemispheric patterns. Buried inside of all the ensemble runs was group of possible outcomes that varied greatly inside the mean. We all focused on the clusters that showed promise and ignored all the clusters that said warmth and rain will prevail. Now it's time to stick to persistence and ignore the promising clusters until the promising clusters overwhelm the ens suite. I'm not holding my breath...

Agree. While tracking and learning is fun, it's beyond frustrating to analyze garbage that has no chance of verifying at all. It's been some winter.

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Nice!  Southwest Pa . I got relatives there in Somerset. Is that the place with your infamous pic of you at the piano playing with hearts and cupid in the background wall ? 
Yep...lol...went last year and my first night got 3 inches of snow lol
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4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

That’s funny.  Hey honey you ever been to a magical place called Caribou?  Let’s go see where I 95 begins or ends.  

nope never been to Maine. I guess they dont have any issues getting  I95 snowstorms there. Btw....euro eps has given me 4 inches for the first time  since the last time it gave me 4 inches and i didnt see a flake.

 

image.png.4f31a052f96c5e7b614a5f86f01f4fa0.png

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12 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

A fly just landed on my windshield.  I will take whatever I can get because I am in no position to be choosy. All in for mood flakes.  

At this point, i'm chasing snow flakes, ice pellets, rain that freezes, whatever little bit of winter this despicable winter can muster. 

18z 12k nam has a slightly better cold push Wednesday night for areas north and west.  Not a lot of precip though until the cold erodes. 

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Snowmaps come in all flavors and their usefulness is heavily debated on the regular. However, I really like the EPS 24hr snow meteos. Give you quite a bit of important data at a single glance. Most importantly it provides concise data irt timing or shotgunning. Whenever digital events are splattered over time with no consensus it means there is no discrete threat at all. However, when members start ganging up in a tight time window it's very meaningful. I actually really like the 12z eps for Sun/Mon. This is one of the best inside d7 looks we've had. D10+ is a scatterbrain shotgun blast but not next weekend... Let's see if this can trend right for once. 

FvJpUh6.png 

 

ETA: 35 out of 50 show some sort of frozen precip Sun/Mon. I can't think of a single event at this range where it had nearly 75% agreement on some sort of winter wx. 

 

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13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Snowmaps come in all flavors and their usefulness is heavily debated on the regular. However, I really like the EPS 24hr snow meteos. Give you quite a bit of important data at a single glance. Most importantly it provides concise data irt timing or shotgunning. Whenever digital events are splattered over time with no consensus it means there is no discrete threat at all. However, when members start ganging up in a tight time window it's very meaningful. I actually really like the 12z eps for Sun/Mon. This is one of the best inside d7 looks we've had. D10+ is a scatterbrain shotgun blast but not next weekend... Let's see if this can trend right for once. 

FvJpUh6.png 

 

ETA: 35 out of 50 show some sort of frozen precip Sun/Mon. I can't think of a single event at this range where it had nearly 75% agreement on some sort of winter wx. 

 

Seriously, thank you for posting something other than just some percentage color shades while saying, "Still no real shot at anything for another 10 days..." 

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Snowmaps come in all flavors and their usefulness is heavily debated on the regular. However, I really like the EPS 24hr snow meteos. Give you quite a bit of important data at a single glance. Most importantly it provides concise data irt timing or shotgunning. Whenever digital events are splattered over time with no consensus it means there is no discrete threat at all. However, when members start ganging up in a tight time window it's very meaningful. I actually really like the 12z eps for Sun/Mon. This is one of the best inside d7 looks we've had. D10+ is a scatterbrain shotgun blast but not next weekend... Let's see if this can trend right for once. 
FvJpUh6.png&key=5205d164788dd83f3e6a11e0acb6b6a808c8cbc73b31035078a4a7a46cc31cca 
 
ETA: 35 out of 50 show some sort of frozen precip Sun/Mon. I can't think of a single event at this range where it had nearly 75% agreement on some sort of winter wx. 
 
I'm putting my money on the 15 out of 50 lol
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20 minutes ago, high risk said:

FWIW, the 18z GFS trended way better with the weekend shortwave.

Edit:     LOL.   Looked nice at 132 but then got flattened 6h later.....

 

I'm pretty interested in that specific shortwave now. Nice pass but variations in strength are wobbling around every 6 hours. I liked the 18z gfs for the sole reason that it shows the same shortwave at the same time. Over 10 runs in a row showing variations of the same thing and now the EPS is latching on. I don't have any strong feelings one way or another but it looks exponentially better than all these gradient waves showing up. I know what those will do to my yard and I'm not ready to mow my lawn in Feb... haha

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8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Here he comes to wreck the daaayyy!   Just kidding reality bites. Thanks for posting 

I set the bar higher on the probability posts by looking at 3 inches or more.  Think it is too optimistic to use the one inch maps which inflates the probability.  15 of the 20 or 75% show some “frozen” but who cares if you have to get out the microscope to measure it in real life.

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14 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Here he comes to wreck the daaayyy!   Just kidding reality bites. Thanks for posting 

On the positive side, about 12/20 get at least an inch to or around the cities. At a 6 day lead, I'm more interested in that.  Don't tell me at this point we all wouldn't be very happy to wake up to an inch of the white stuff on Sunday morning. 

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Just now, Weather Will said:

Agreed, but do you really think that inch is going to accumulate on ground this warm?  It is not realistic.

No probably not.  Is that it?  Did you see anything else promising beyond that?  I haven’t looked. Don’t want to actually.  

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7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Agreed, but do you really think that inch is going to accumulate on ground this warm?  It is not realistic.

:facepalm:

Aren't we talking about the potential next Sunday? That's in like 6 days. Totally different airmass. 

 

This is saturday morning. Before precip moves in saturday night. 

 

gfs_T2m_neus_21.png

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7 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

On the positive side, about 12/20 get at least an inch to or around the cities. At a 6 day lead, I'm more interested in that.  Don't tell me at this point we all wouldn't be very happy to wake up to an inch of the white stuff on Sunday morning. 

Agreed. A chance at an all snow event of any size is great at this point. It's not moisture starved clipper type of event. It's a pacific shortwave that taps the gulf a bit on its way across the country. Fast moving and not very amplified so as is I would guess 1-2/2-4 kind of deal best case scenario. EPS has a few bigger hits in the mix so I suppose there's a bit more potential. Otoh- every single "event" this year has degraded in the medium/short range.  Hard to bet against that but at least we finally have a discrete event at a 1 week range to discuss. How long until it goes poof this time? Lol

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