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February 5-7 Wintry Mess Potential


weatherwiz
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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It is . I don’t believe it was that much of a shift . It’s just we are at the point where a slight shift south gets more of us in the decent banding and colder columns 

It could waffle north and warmer too. I guess the one good thing is that the whole thing is weak and more or less a frontal boundary before the real good dynamics ignite rapid cyclogenesis and move the low north. So if it is weak, you can push that boundary south. On the other hand it could come close to the SNE coast and make this rather uninteresting for many. I'd pay attention north of the pike and NW of 495 for now, but verbatim that is some ice into 128 I think. Just not sure the NAM is correct.

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19 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I talked to my daughter up in BTV last night.  She is stoked for the snow-hoping for a snow day though my thoughts are it has to be pretty intense (18+?) for that to happen in northern VT.

I think you’d mentioned she’s at UVM?  For UVM specifically to call an official snow day/winter weather day closing it typically has to be something very impactful – it’s probably a once-a-decade sort of occurrence.  Since a majority of the students can simply walk to class from their dorms or downtown, the travel isn’t a big issue, and the equipment is on hand to handle most storms.  It’s more common for individual classes to be cancelled if professors that live out of town can’t get it due to travel issues.

Even without official cancellation though, substantial winter storm days often still feel like snow days because people will trim their schedules for travel reasons, and with the ski culture atmosphere around here you’ll find a lot of people prioritizing that and potentially planning their schedule around it.

The local primary/secondary schools will certainly call snow days for much less snow, depending on the timing and intensity of the snowfall.

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10 minutes ago, Ogmios said:

On a personnel note between us Canadians I wish they would carry Canadian coverage if you know what I mean, my area is barely on the map with Halifax barely off the map.  Well at least tidbits carries SE Canadian coverage while the rest of Canada does not get any coverage, but being dedicated to tropical weather I can see why only SE Canada gets any attention.  However I tend to find myself a little disappointed with the lack of real weather coverage in that regard.

You're in no mans land on most of the model guidance.

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So forgive me if someone's already mentioned, but the NAM is a snow storm wrt the 2nd half of the main deal Friday, where that does the old collapsing snow/rain line... 

It could be fascinating along Rt 2, where a potentially extended period of ZR/accretion transitions directly to a snow and increase in wind as that low deepens underneath and we start ramping up a bit more iso. wind response.  If there is loading ..that ups the grid implications in those regions - just talking this solution.

But, I gotta say, this run overall looks like it corrected smack into my early thoughts and musings about how odd the BL handling looks with these models trying to take the low through a region that "should," given the total synoptic circumstances/evolution, have more resistance in place.  This run simply ticks the low track to where it really should.   

Sorry to say, it's not exactly an unbelievable solution ...out side of west Atlantic Jovian mlv wind maxes that is.. ha

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The cold look at the sfc inland definitely makes sense from a meteorological standpoint. When you have mesolows moving off E MA and into the gulf of Maine, you have no mechanism for warming other than latent heat release...but the position of those mesolows will act to drain lower dews to offset the latent heat...the question is which one is stronger. (Usually the mesolows win when they are in that position)

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16 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

I think you’d mentioned she’s at UVM?  For UVM specifically to call an official snow day/winter weather day closing it typically has to be something very impactful – it’s probably a once-a-decade sort of occurrence.  Since a majority of the students can simply walk to class from their dorms or downtown, the travel isn’t a big issue, and the equipment is on hand to handle most storms.  It’s more common for individual classes to be cancelled if professors that live out of town can’t get it due to travel issues.

Even without official cancellation though, substantial winter storm days often still feel like snow days because people will trim their schedules for travel reasons, and with the ski culture atmosphere around here you’ll find a lot of people prioritizing that and potentially planning their schedule around it.

The local primary/secondary schools will certainly call snow days for much less snow, depending on the timing and intensity of the snowfall.

Thanks!  Yes she’s at UVM.  I told her pretty much what you described-plan on snow but no snow day.

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SO at 54 hours ... the NAM: 

*IF* the evolution taking place in this chart below is correct, and you are icing west of I-95/N of the Pike in SNE at this period in time ... you are ending that way, or snow - particularly considering the other physical processes going on in  total with this thing... That's your fate - question is ..is this correct. Hint, I think it is more so than not given the nearer termed BL conditioning/pre we are setting up leading in. 

 

sfcwind_mslp.conus.png 

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30 minutes ago, Ogmios said:

On a personnel note between us Canadians I wish they would carry Canadian coverage if you know what I mean, my area is barely on the map with Halifax barely off the map.  Well at least tidbits carries SE Canadian coverage while the rest of Canada does not get any coverage, but being dedicated to tropical weather I can see why only SE Canada gets any attention.  However I tend to find myself a little disappointed with the lack of real weather coverage in that regard.

Yeah pivotalwx is tougher for atlantic canada. But they have western, central, and eastern canada domains for gfs, gdps, and rdps. They dont have ecwmf ukmet or nam32 data for eastern canada. 

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Just now, dryslot said:

Sure on paywalled, But most look for the freebies.

I would think 10 bucks a month for a Canadian looking for better weather resources would be manageable for most. 33 cents a day and you can cancel after winter. IDK as a hobbyist it is worth it. I think weather.us has great Canada maps too and its free

Screenshot_20200205-101011_Chrome.jpg

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

I would think 10 bucks a month for a Canadian looking for better weather resources would be manageable for most. 33 cents a day and you can cancel after winter. IDK as a hobbyist it is worth it. I think weather.us has great Canada maps too and its free

Screenshot_20200205-101011_Chrome.jpg

We have pros here that don't or won't pay, And i think many hobbyist fall in that category, I'm probably one of the exceptions as i pay for 3.

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I would think 10 bucks a month for a Canadian looking for better weather resources would be manageable for most. 33 cents a day and you can cancel after winter. IDK as a hobbyist it is worth it. I think weather.us has great Canada maps too and its free

Screenshot_20200205-101011_Chrome.jpg

We dont get the fancy pivotalwx sounding coverage though. At least I thought that's why he was referring to given I mentioned pivotalwx to tip. 

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

SO at 54 hours ... the NAM: 

*IF* the evolution taking place in this chart below is correct, and you are icing west of I-95/N of the Pike in SNE at this period in time ... you are ending that way, or snow - particularly considering the other physical processes going on in  total with this thing... That's your fate - question is ..is this correct. Hint, I think it is more so than not given the nearer termed BL conditioning/pre we are setting up leading in. 

 

sfcwind_mslp.conus.png 

You're good. They're all free and watermarked. They're trying to support themselves via donations.

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That run is close to pinging here even for most of the front end. Bump that H8 warm nose up another 1-2C and it's very little snow until the end when we flip back to snow toward the end of part 2. Gotta get at least a few inches of pure snow down before we get bead blasted or else I'm not going to be able to blow the sleet well.

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