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Central PA - February 2020


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@NWSStateCollege
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Winter (Dec. 2019-Feb. 2020) Climate Summary Williamsport @flyIPT •Tied for 8th warmest 33.6°F •11th least snowiest (10.2") •Tied for 4th warmest minimum temp (8°) •Tied for 3rd warmest lowest max temp (26°) #PAwx pic.twitter.com/x8ygxTooDT

 


@NWSStateCollege
1h
Winter (Dec. 2019-Feb. 2020) Climate Summary Harrisburg @FlyHIA •6th warmest 37.4°F •3rd least snowiest (5.1") •Tied for 2nd warmest minimum temp (14°) •Tied for warmest lowest max temp (30°) on record #PAwx pic.twitter.com/umwClGMfHh

 

 

 

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Just catching up on everyone's seasonal snow totals.

6.3" total for me here in Carlisle.  And, like @canderson also mentioned, about 1.5" of that total was sleet.

Also, while everyone is headed to Florida, my wife and I are headed to Las Vegas this Wednesday to see Barry Manilow at his home hotel.  Then headed back on Friday.  Forecast for out there is sunshine with temps in the mid 70's.  I'll take it.  :)

 

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2 hours ago, pawatch said:


@NWSStateCollege
53m
Winter (Dec. 2019-Feb. 2020) Climate Summary Williamsport @flyIPT •Tied for 8th warmest 33.6°F •11th least snowiest (10.2") •Tied for 4th warmest minimum temp (8°) •Tied for 3rd warmest lowest max temp (26°) #PAwx pic.twitter.com/x8ygxTooDT

 


@NWSStateCollege
1h
Winter (Dec. 2019-Feb. 2020) Climate Summary Harrisburg @FlyHIA •6th warmest 37.4°F •3rd least snowiest (5.1") •Tied for 2nd warmest minimum temp (14°) •Tied for warmest lowest max temp (30°) on record #PAwx pic.twitter.com/umwClGMfHh

 

 

 

So they really are throwing down the gauntlet and recording this as the third least snowiest winter regardless of March.    Average of 30 for a low is indeed a really "warm" stat.  

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58 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

So they really are throwing down the gauntlet and recording this as the third least snowiest winter regardless of March.    Average of 30 for a low is indeed a really "warm" stat.  

No, the CTP comment is just for Met Winter, Not the season.

The full season is All snow from Fall 2019 to Spring of 2020.

No one, including CTP, is done counting snow for this season yet.

 

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27 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

No, the CTP comment is just for Met Winter, Not the season.

The full season is All snow from Fall 2019 to Spring of 2020.

No one, including CTP, is done counting snow for this season yet.

 

That is what I said, winter.  Up until this winter I did not know they even kept that stat but its in the books.  MDT officially had its 3rd worst snow showing.   Pennlive is even running a story on it (printed three weeks ago).  Ironically of the top 5 worst winter snow totals only 1 ended up being top 5 worst snow totals for all months though I did not look to see if November or Mar/Apr helped the other years.

Edit-Somehow MDT got up to 36 yesterday.  Staying below freezing in many local spots I thought yesterday would have been the one to break the 35 string at the airport. 

 

 

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I had about 1.6" in the last few days of snow showers, but definitely not on the ground all at once. That brings my season to 15.5" to date. To put that in perspective for around here I still need about 6-10" to GET to the levels of the other recent junk winters of note. Those season totals I have up from the last two winters (54.6" and 52.2") are both roughly average winters for this particular location. This one's the worst I've seen personally.. I've never seen a bad winter not have at least one decent event. There's still time for that to change obviously but the recent three bad ones (01-02, 11-12, 15-16) had the bigger event before March.  Since back here technically requires 3" of snow to verify an advisory (non-ice), I haven't had one of those up through today this winter. That's insane. 

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5 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I had about 1.6" in the last few days of snow showers, but definitely not on the ground all at once. That brings my season to 15.5" to date. To put that in perspective for around here I still need about 6-10" to GET to the levels of the other recent junk winters of note. Those season totals I have up from the last two winters (54.6" and 52.2") are both roughly average winters for this particular location. This one's the worst I've seen personally.. I've never seen a bad winter not have at least one decent event. There's still time for that to change obviously but the recent three bad ones (01-02, 11-12, 15-16) had the bigger event before March.  Since back here technically requires 3" of snow to verify an advisory (non-ice), I haven't had one of those up through today this winter. That's insane. 

It has been so bad that I think we have to chalk it up to coincidental/perfect storm situations that led to it.  Taking the Met Winter totals into consideration the statement that stands out most to me is that although this is the third worst snowfall total winter ever at MDT (recorded history) there is no one alive that experienced #'s 1 and 2 so Its the lowest MDT Winter snowfall anyone alive has ever experienced and probably ever will experience.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

It has been so bad that I think we have to chalk it up to coincidental/perfect storm situations that led to it.  Taking the Met Winter totals into consideration the statement that stands out most to me is that although this is the third worst snowfall total winter ever at MDT (recorded history) there is no one alive that experienced #'s 1 and 2 so Its the lowest MDT Winter snowfall anyone alive has ever experienced and probably ever will experience.

 

 

Hopefully we will all live many years to tell the tale of the 2020 Great Winter Saving Blizzard that hits us on March 18th.

The models should start to lock in on it tomorrow. It will be a Widespread 18 to 28 inch storm from DC to NYC, but will miss New England (I don’t like the Pats & Celtics      so much...).

It will stretch back to the I-99 corridor to get @MAG5035 closer to his seasonal average. Plus, for selfish reasons, I want him hit with the storm so we get his full detailed analysis in all of its glory.

It will particularly nail the he LSV so much so that @Itstrainingtime will have to actually turn his heat on from the frigid temps that accompany the blowing & drifting snow for 3 days.

Our friend @pasnownut will be able to snowmobile through the fields & streets of Lancaster County. 

A CTP wide Winter Storm Warning for 8 to 14 inches will be upgraded during the morning of the storm to a Blizzard Warning for 18 to 28 inches of snow.

Despite the Warning & the radar lit up like a Christmas tree with a solid heavy precip shield stretching from Louisiana to West Virginia, our buddy @canderson will be more concerned about the trees on Front Street in Harrisburg than the snow. He will boldly proclaim that he bets MDT won’t get more than 6 inches of snow.

Unfortunately @Bubbler86 will be in Florida during the storm, but he will still be wondering why CTP won’t count the storm total for the Winter instead of the season.

@Voyager will also miss out on the storm due to the Tamaqua snow shield that must be the equivalent of the Bermuda Triangle.

Somehow @Cashtown_Coop will be the jackpot winner and will report a final snow total of 32 inches.

I’m sure that there will be many more stories to follow with this legendary event to come.

Please add your thoughts because I know that I left many out of this tale for now, but we have 17 days until the event unfolds...

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4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Hopefully we will all live many years to tell the tale of the 2020 Great Winter Saving Blizzard that hits us on March 18th.

The models should start to lock in on it tomorrow. It will be a Widespread 18 to 28 inch storm from DC to NYC, but will miss New England (I don’t like the Pats & Celtics      so much...).

It will stretch back to the I-99 corridor to get @MAG5035 closer to his seasonal average. Plus, for selfish reasons, I want him hit with the storm so we get his full detailed analysis in all of its glory.

It will particularly nail the he LSV so much so that @Itstrainingtime will have to actually turn his heat on from the frigid temps that accompany the blowing & drifting snow for 3 days.

Our friend @pasnownut will be able to snowmobile through the fields & streets of Lancaster County. 

A CTP wide Winter Storm Warning for 8 to 14 inches will be upgraded during the morning of the storm to a Blizzard Warning for 18 to 28 inches of snow.

Despite the Warning & the radar lit up like a Christmas tree with a solid heavy precip shield stretching from Louisiana to West Virginia, our buddy @canderson will be more concerned about the trees on Front Street in Harrisburg than the snow. He will boldly proclaim that he bets MDT won’t get more than 6 inches of snow.

Unfortunately @Bubbler86 will be in Florida during the storm, but he will still be wondering why CTP won’t count the storm total for the Winter instead of the season.

@Voyager will also miss out on the storm due to the Tamaqua snow shield that must be the equivalent of the Bermuda Triangle.

Somehow @Cashtown_Coop will be the jackpot winner and will report a final snow total of 32 inches.

I’m sure that there will be many more stories to follow with this legendary event to come.

Please add your thoughts because I know that I left many out of this tale for now, but we have 17 days until the event unfolds...

If Friday or after I will be back Thursday night :-).  @Cashtown_Coop is the guy who will be in Florida.

 

Edit-Just saw this is a 17 day forecast.  LOL.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 12z EPS, GEFS & Canadian ensembles all say that we might not be done with snow chances during the next 2 weeks.

 

I'd say the potential system near the 6-7th represents the best chance of anything that may materialize as a northern branch wave drops in and look to maybe phase. Seemed like roughly 1/4 of the members on each ensemble showed 2"+ at MDT with some bigger snows in there bumping the mean up. Think the 12z Euro ensembles for instance had something like 14/51 members with 2"+ with 4 having more than 6". It's a half decent signal at that range but I see the same base issues though stemming from our dominant pattern of anomalous low heights over the pole with a high northern branch and progression. The northern wave does seem to drop down with some amplification and a pretty good signal of phasing on the models, but not enough for my liking.. and too late. Wavelengths are shortened but it's too progressive with no blocking downstream or up top. Unfortunately I think New England is better positioned to get something out of this. Very short window for this to materialize for anyone as the cold coming in with this is in and out rapidly. 

Did not like the long range on the ensembles as the PV over the pole remains strongly in tact with general troughing near the west coast (quietly a pretty solid -PNA forecasted) and consistent central Pac ridging. As such all the ensembles show above normal heights in the east in the longer term. We look closer to early spring fling than scoring a winter storm with a look like that. This stuff over the pole staying business as usual throughout the model runs pretty much play into my worry of this very dominant pattern not breaking down til it's too late.. or at least late enough that it makes things much harder for us to score anything climo wise. 

30 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Hopefully we will all live many years to tell the tale of the 2020 Great Winter Saving Blizzard that hits us on March 18th.

The models should start to lock in on it tomorrow. It will be a Widespread 18 to 28 inch storm from DC to NYC, but will miss New England (I don’t like the Pats & Celtics      so much...).

It will stretch back to the I-99 corridor to get @MAG5035 closer to his seasonal average. Plus, for selfish reasons, I want him hit with the storm so we get his full detailed analysis in all of its glory.

It will particularly nail the he LSV so much so that @Itstrainingtime will have to actually turn his heat on from the frigid temps that accompany the blowing & drifting snow for 3 days.

Our friend @pasnownut will be able to snowmobile through the fields & streets of Lancaster County. 

A CTP wide Winter Storm Warning for 8 to 14 inches will be upgraded during the morning of the storm to a Blizzard Warning for 18 to 28 inches of snow.

Despite the Warning & the radar lit up like a Christmas tree with a solid heavy precip shield stretching from Louisiana to West Virginia, our buddy @canderson will be more concerned about the trees on Front Street in Harrisburg than the snow. He will boldly proclaim that he bets MDT won’t get more than 6 inches of snow.

Unfortunately @Bubbler86 will be in Florida during the storm, but he will still be wondering why CTP won’t count the storm total for the Winter instead of the season.

@Voyager will also miss out on the storm due to the Tamaqua snow shield that must be the equivalent of the Bermuda Triangle.

Somehow @Cashtown_Coop will be the jackpot winner and will report a final snow total of 32 inches.

I’m sure that there will be many more stories to follow with this legendary event to come.

Please add your thoughts because I know that I left many out of this tale for now, but we have 17 days until the event unfolds...

It'd take a storm of that description for me to consider the winter maybe at least a little bit salvaged haha. And you better not leave @Wmsptwx and esp @2001kx out of this. You think I'd boycott the storm if it missed me? Haha

 

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2 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I'd say the potential system near the 6-7th represents the best chance of anything that may materialize as a northern branch wave drops in and look to maybe phase. Seemed like roughly 1/4 of the members on each ensemble showed 2"+ at MDT with some bigger snows in there bumping the mean up. Think the 12z Euro ensembles for instance had something like 14/51 members with 2"+ with 4 having more than 6". It's a half decent signal at that range but I see the same base issues though stemming from our dominant pattern of anomalous low heights over the pole with a high northern branch and progression. The northern wave does seem to drop down with some amplification and a pretty good signal of phasing on the models, but not enough for my liking.. and too late. Wavelengths are shortened but it's too progressive with no blocking downstream or up top. Unfortunately I think New England is better positioned to get something out of this. Very short window for this to materialize for anyone as the cold coming in with this is in and out rapidly. 

Did not like the long range on the ensembles as the PV over the pole remains strongly in tact with general troughing near the west coast (quietly a pretty solid -PNA forecasted) and consistent central Pac ridging. As such all the ensembles show above normal heights in the east in the longer term. We look closer to early spring fling than scoring a winter storm with a look like that. This stuff over the pole staying business as usual throughout the model runs pretty much play into my worry of this very dominant pattern not breaking down til it's too late.. or at least late enough that it makes things much harder for us to score anything climo wise. 

It'd take a storm of that description for me to consider the winter maybe at least a little bit salvaged haha. And you better not leave @Wmsptwx and esp @2001kx out of this. You think I'd boycott the storm if it missed me? Haha

 

:thumbsup:

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Three times I was ready to switch jobs/companies, and three times there was a threat of snow, until I realized the job switch wasn't right and cancelled it. As soon as I did, the snow threat went away. So here is #4 and this one is the right one. That means this threat is legit because we ALWAYS get a storm when I start a new job...

:lol:

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2 hours ago, canderson said:

Aside from Friday and Saturday, looks like every day this week will be in the mid (or higher) 50s.

Maybe we'll just skip the pretend extended spring and go straight to summer early this year. 

Friday really isn't that far off from being interesting. Long odds for sure but hey...there's a chance of some wintry weather.

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15 minutes ago, canderson said:

I can get 4-6 or so degrees. But we've had 10-15 degree busts (higher than forecast) multiple times. 

Well, the forecast for today was overcast with PM light showers. It's been wall to wall sun (at least down here) which explains a lot specific to today...

My wife says that my weather station is currently at 67.2! 

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17 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

If my memory is correct, wasn't it pretty nice weather leading up to one of the biggies in '93-'96? 

Several March storms were warm in advance...'93 was, though a few recently were warmer. There was a storm in March, it might have been 2007 where we had close to 1' of snow a day after it was at or near 70.

It was cold leading into '96 storm - when the storm started I was sitting at 8F after reaching only around 20 the previous day. 

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Of the 12z ops and ensemble guidance, the 12z Euro ensemble is particularly suggestive of this potentially being an event for C-PA. Pretty sizable clustering of coastal low tracks that would be decent C-PA tracks (although consensus still leans east of here with the main coastal). Overall, this system has an inverted trough look to it with the northern branch system from the lakes phasing into the southern branch system coming off the NC Coast. Typically this is a pretty good signal for a lighter, potentially advisory type snow event in our region even if the heaviest resides east or northeast of C-PA with the main coastal low ramping up but I'm worried about the low level/surface temp regime for a lighter event, especially east of the mountains. Will have to see if the coastal low trends closer to us with time. Like I said yesterday, very short window of opportunity for this.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ne-snow_24hr_ge_1-3560800.thumb.png.a04773fa72124565e26c52d883971b74.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-ne-snow_24hr_ge_3-3560800.thumb.png.0dd49696c90a57eb195bee3ef059b814.png1924269654_ScreenShot2020-03-02at5_17_08PM.png.4381e9b3302d51645dc4061ae3e190cc.png

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