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Central PA - February 2020


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6 minutes ago, canderson said:

Interesting look, but no real blocking right? That worries me in March. 

HMM??

You dont see the red blob above Nova Scotia??

 

And if that's not good enough, the AO/NAO are headed down at this time.  Blocking is less important when those 2 are - and pressing south as they force the boundary below us.  I'd take my chances any day and 2x on Sunday's w/ that look....even if it doesnt work out.  

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Well today's GFS suggests February is going to end with most days in the 50's in the LSV and on and off rain but one feature I thought interesting was the rare "clipper" it shows next weekend.  Beggars cannot be choosers so I will take anything showing a low going under us with cold air near.  History this year continues to suggest anything coming out of the Lwr Miss Valley is too high of a cut risk. 

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7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Well today's GFS suggests February is going to end with most days in the 50's in the LSV and on and off rain but one feature I thought interesting was the rare "clipper" it shows next weekend.  Beggars cannot be choosers so I will take anything showing a low going under us with cold air near.  History this year continues to suggest anything coming out of the Lwr Miss Valley is too high of a cut risk. 

And that's all because of how transient the pattern has been. If it's not perfectly timed, forget about it. SE crew is benefiting from that timing today. 

Nut's image above looks pretty good...it just has no staying power. In one day, out the next...

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32 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

And that's all because of how transient the pattern has been. If it's not perfectly timed, forget about it. SE crew is benefiting from that timing today. 

Nut's image above looks pretty good...it just has no staying power. In one day, out the next...

No doubt but I feel like there is even more to it as even in a pure transient  pattern we would get lucky every now and then.  The Long Range surface maps are constantly wrong in the 7-10 range.  One could have made a fortune betting on PA snow storms 10 days out turning into Upper NY snow storms by verification time. 

 

PS-The "pattern" and results from last year were basically the same as the results from this year as it pertains to eventual low progression but the HUGE difference this year has been the lack of blocking/CAD/cold air that withstands the intrusions. We had 1/2 dozen of snow to rain or drizzle storms last year. 

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8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

No doubt but I feel like there is even more to it as even in a pure transient  pattern we would get lucky every now and then.  The Long Range surface maps are constantly wrong in the 7-10 range.  One could have made a fortune betting on PA snow storms 10 days out turning into Upper NY snow storms by verification time. 

 

PS-The "pattern" and results form last year were basically the same as the results form this year as it pertains to eventual low progression but the HUGE difference this year has been the lack of blocking/CAD/cold air that withstands the intrusions. We had 1/2 dozen of snow to rain or drizzle storms last year. 

Bingo

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

HMM??

You dont see the red blob above Nova Scotia??

 

And if that's not good enough, the AO/NAO are headed down at this time.  Blocking is less important when those 2 are - and pressing south as they force the boundary below us.  I'd take my chances any day and 2x on Sunday's w/ that look....even if it doesnt work out.  

D'oh, I looked right past it. I guess the season has me gunshy lol

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2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

No doubt but I feel like there is even more to it as even in a pure transient  pattern we would get lucky every now and then.  The Long Range surface maps are constantly wrong in the 7-10 range.  One could have made a fortune betting on PA snow storms 10 days out turning into Upper NY snow storms by verification time. 

 

PS-The "pattern" and results from last year were basically the same as the results from this year as it pertains to eventual low progression but the HUGE difference this year has been the lack of blocking/CAD/cold air that withstands the intrusions. We had 1/2 dozen of snow to rain or drizzle storms last year. 

but weve seen +5 AO this year...and it wasnt that bad last year ( Im sure you and your stats gurus can find that # out for us).  That said, the boundary line has reacted accordingly and went further North....so we cut further west (which can work when the AO/NAO are neg enough to keep the boundary closer.  

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9 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

but weve seen +5 AO this year...and it wasnt that bad last year ( Im sure you and your stats gurus can find that # out for us).  That said, the boundary line has reacted accordingly and went further North....so we cut further west (which can work when the AO/NAO are neg enough to keep the boundary closer.  

I can jive with most of what you are suggesting except the boundary lines.   I am not going to go back and look at all the systems from last year but the boundary was very near us much of last year as it has been this year and constantly cutters pushed the 540/850 line well north of us as we had snow to ice to rain situations.  Its the lack of deep cold air that has made such a large difference this year.  We can say it is AO related but I still have an issue in the way the models are handling it.  I feel they were much less likely (except the FV3) to show things cutting under us last year....they were usually showing cutters in the 7-10 day range and that is what happened.  This year the models, including the EC, keep trying to start out with Gulf storms or bowling balls that do go under us only to switch back once they hit that magical 7-8 day mark. So something else I/we are missing in my opinion. 

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15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

The reality of that is slowly sinking in...

...then again, it's snowing on the Outer Banks right now, so there's that. :)

Some of my friends in Florida think we get around by dog team and live in Igloos up here so I am never going to hear the end of NC getting snow.  The "you guys must be below freezing for NC to get snow" comments are coming. 

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10 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

I can jive with most of what you are suggesting except the boundary lines.   I am not going to go back and look at all the systems from last year but the boundary was very near us much of last year as it has been this year and constantly cutters pushed the 540/850 line well north of us as we had snow to ice to rain situations.  Its the lack of deep cold air that has made such a large difference this year.  We can say it is AO related but I still have an issue in the way the models are handling it.  I feel they were much less likely (except the FV3) to show things cutting under us last year....they were usually showing cutters in the 7-10 day range and that is what happened.  This year the models, including the EC, keep trying to start out with Gulf storms or bowling balls that do go under us only to switch back once they hit that magical 7-8 day mark. So something else I/we are missing in my opinion. 

Yea we had several mix events last winter too but we certainly had more that tracked under us as well and most of us scored that mid November snowstorm. We all had a pretty good winter overall last year minus the break it took in December and the first part of January. This winter hasn't even been in the same area code since early Jan. We ran a negative AO in late Jan and most of Feb last year and this year we've run a strongly positive AO with spikes of near record + anomalies in Jan/Feb. That's a huge difference upstairs. Folks like Cashtown had about 50" last winter and MDT had an above average season and this year they're looking at a top 5 least snowy meteorological winter if the 2/27 event doesn't deliver anything there. I've lived here my whole almost 34 years and this one's easily going to be the worst winter I've personally seen unless something big happens late. 

At any rate, yes it's definitely the lack of deep cold air thats a major part of the difference this year. You have a remarkably consistent and strong PV that locks up the arctic air (+AO) among having some combination of unfavorable MJO phases, +EPO, -PNA and it's pretty clear to see why we've had a horrendous storm track to deal with. Storms like to ride that baroclinic boundary between the warm and cold air and we haven't been on the right end of that. And we've had occasional opportunities, but we've just missed out on them.  As for the models handling things, I really haven't personally felt they've been any more horrendous than usual in the mid-long range. There's always digital snow to be chased in the long range. But otherwise, I know I've seen enough cutters at all ranges of the models and in reality to last the rest of the decade this winter. I think there's been some instances of the models trying to change the pattern to a more favorable one in the longer range and thus throwing out storms that are favorable for us only to revert back toward the base pattern we've been in most of the winter.. but we've also had pretty good stretches of them showing (correctly) about as much digital snow as real snow (not very much). Also, that Carolina's/SE VA event got lost a little bit in the mid range but was generally seen on the models pretty far out. You put a Euro D10 snowmap of that on back on the 13th... reality had the swath north of that but the prospect of SE snow was seen well in advance.

We're now seeing the another event that has been showing up in the progs the last few days around the 27th. A very robust 500mb low undercutting higher heights that are forecast to temporarily build over Canada with also what looks to be a shortwave dropping in from Canada and phasing to make a significant system. This overall 500mb setup looks good for a strong storm system that could develop a heavy swath of snow, but the problem right now on the progs is the alignment looks to be a bit west of where we'd want it. The ridge axis in the west is being progged along the coast instead of over C-PA preferred Idaho. We could be in better business if we can progress this east enough to pop the low on the coast. The 0z GFS/Euro run this surface low up through central/western PA, while the Canadian was a bit better for true central having the developing low running up the coastal plain.

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