Blizzard of 93 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 The 0z Euro has a winter storm chance for us next Wednesday into Thursday. It keep the low under us with Decent Highs to our north. It brings a good swath of snow to all of CTP. Only 8 days to go... let’s see if this becomes something legit to track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Upgrade news. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 6 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 0z Euro has a winter storm chance for us next Wednesday into Thursday. It keep the low under us with Decent Highs to our north. It brings a good swath of snow to all of CTP. Only 8 days to go... let’s see if this becomes something legit to track? Only took 1/2 a day to turn it into a Cutter/reform over us. Model tracking this season has reminded me of this one minute clip: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 18 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: Parts of the Carolinas might get a decent snow later this week. Good for them! GFS and Icon are caving to the Nam. Even suggesting Mason-Dixon coun ties of MD might see some flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 18, 2020 Author Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: GFS and Icon are caving to the Nam. Even suggesting Mason-Dixon coun ties of MD might see some flakes. Yep...though the Doctor hasn't made a house call on this one yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Yep...though the Doctor hasn't made a house call on this one yet. Times in the past would have called for pointing out that the Euro is not good at short range. LOL. That is a weenie handbook classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 WXRISK and if follow DT out of control l. :))))) Enjoy their digital snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 6 hours ago, paweather said: WXRISK and if follow DT out of control l. :))))) Enjoy their digital snow huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 On 2/15/2020 at 4:04 PM, Itstrainingtime said: @Bubbler86 not sure what the high will be at MDT, the 4pm reading was 34... On the subject of the large departures this month, MDT sits at +7.9 as of today. Looks like some normal or slightly below coming up late week then a string of 4-5 days with double digit or close positive departures this weekend and next week followed by slightly above normal to end the month...so unless the MR guidance is way off we probably will not finish the month with a double digit positive departure. Getting up to 60 a couple times next week is going to keep it high but probably stay in that 7-9+ range. Still noteworthy but not historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 8 hours ago, paweather said: WXRISK and if follow DT out of control l. :))))) Enjoy their digital snow 1 hour ago, 2001kx said: huh? DT is hugging the NAM for all it's worth wrt the Carolina/ Virginia storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: DT is hugging the NAM for all it's worth wrt the Carolina/ Virginia storm... The Euro did actually Cave to the Nam this time as well. Not as cold as the name but still a very large area of 2-4" type snows now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The Euro did actually Cave to the Nam this time as well. Not as cold as the name but still a very large area of 2-4" type snows now. Which run? 0z or 6z? I only have access to the 0z and 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, Voyager said: Which run? 0z or 6z? I only have access to the 0z and 12z runs. The 0Z Euro snow map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 24 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: On the subject of the large departures this month, MDT sits at +7.9 as of today. Looks like some normal or slightly below coming up late week then a string of 4-5 days with double digit or close positive departures this weekend and next week followed by slightly above normal to end the month...so unless the MR guidance is way off we probably will not finish the month with a double digit positive departure. Getting up to 60 a couple times next week is going to keep it high but probably stay in that 7-9+ range. Still noteworthy but not historic. Thanks for digging that information up! In my mind I'm not going to remember this winter for the abnormally warm days, it's been the warm nights that will really stand out. Very few nights below 20 and none in the single digits. That speaks to how cloudy and damp it's been more than anything else. If we would have had a run of sunny warm days...then we'd be talking about historic instead of noteworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Thanks for digging that information up! In my mind I'm not going to remember this winter for the abnormally warm days, it's been the warm nights that will really stand out. Very few nights below 20 and none in the single digits. That speaks to how cloudy and damp it's been more than anything else. If we would have had a run of sunny warm days...then we'd be talking about historic instead of noteworthy. I think the thing that struck me was the way everyone was talking about the cold night last Friday as if it was special...and it really was just a normal cold night at least LSV wise. Below average cold but something that usually happens several times every winter. It was balls to wall cold up in Northern PA. At my place we were actually colder during one of the earlier cold nights this year...they have been so few though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I think the thing that struck me was the way everyone was talking about the cold night last Friday as if it was special...and it really was just a normal cold night at least LSV wise. Below average cold but something that usually happens several times every winter. It was balls to wall cold up in Northern PA. At my place we were actually colder during one of the earlier cold nights this year...they have been so few though. Yep - it's all about what you've become accustomed to. And sadly what we've become accustomed to this winter is mild days and and even milder nights. Normal cold suddenly feels extra-cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 37 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: On the subject of the large departures this month, MDT sits at +7.9 as of today. Looks like some normal or slightly below coming up late week then a string of 4-5 days with double digit or close positive departures this weekend and next week followed by slightly above normal to end the month...so unless the MR guidance is way off we probably will not finish the month with a double digit positive departure. Getting up to 60 a couple times next week is going to keep it high but probably stay in that 7-9+ range. Still noteworthy but not historic. Not sure where thats coming from but yeah next week looks to warm for a few days. Warmest panel i could find among the ensembles. Its fair to say that maybe things warm as we get closer. +6 still sucks in Feb. and for the lovers of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Just now, pasnownut said: Not sure where thats coming from but yeah next week looks to warm for a few days. Warmest panel i could find among the ensembles. Its fair to say that maybe things warm as we get closer. +6 still sucks in Feb. and for the lovers of the Euro. I was looking at the GFS panels which show it approaching 60 two days next week and the temp at MDT never going below 40 between 7AM Monday Morning and 7PM Thursday evening. When they do the departures they they take both the high and low differences so a high of 60 and low of 40 is high double digit departure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 For those looking for a little hope for winter to start/return... here is the EOM on current guidance. AO/NAO both are coming down as we enter the last week of Feb, so that to me supports the return to colder in the east. Only fly I see is the PNA also trending to Neut from a +1ish setup, but to me the cold looks legit and seems to fit the base state. Ens guidance seems to have lost the cutoff in the SW which would have cooked us once again. EPS has been known to do that, but it seems to initially dump towards the SW then is progressive and keeps the 500's moving along. to what we see below. I'd not feel comfy about anything locking in, but a legit window is there IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I was looking at the GFS panels which show it approaching 60 two days next week and the temp at MDT never going below 40 between 7AM Monday Morning and 7PM Thursday evening. When they do the departures they they take both the high and low differences so a high of 60 and low of 40 is high double digit departure. Id not use an op beyond 5 days as you know swings can be rather drastic run to run (your comment yesterday to Blizz about one run showing a snow event to next showing a cutter....), but thats up to you. I used 18z panels from ENS guidance for max warmth (to not show any bias that I may have towards cold) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 10 minutes ago, pasnownut said: For those looking for a little hope for winter to start/return... here is the EOM on current guidance. AO/NAO both are coming down as we enter the last week of Feb, so that to me supports the return to colder in the east. Only fly I see is the PNA also trending to Neut from a +1ish setup, but to me the cold looks legit and seems to fit the base state. Ens guidance seems to have lost the cutoff in the SW which would have cooked us once again. EPS has been known to do that, but it seems to initially dump towards the SW then is progressive and keeps the 500's moving along. to what we see below. I'd not feel comfy about anything locking in, but a legit window is there IMO. Seems like the very end of February/beginning of March offers at least some legitimate hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 I'm telling you, March/April/May will feature a setup that's favorable for cold/snow, but because it's April/May, all we'll get is 51 damp, 47 degree days out of a possible 61 days. That's how things seem here anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 19 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: I'm telling you, March/April/May will feature a setup that's favorable for cold/snow, but because it's April/May, all we'll get is 51 damp, 47 degree days out of a possible 61 days. That's how things seem here anymore. Actually...yes. If some of the long range guidance is correct we're gonna get our perfect winter pattern...well into spring. BTW - I think you were the first in here to call for a crapfest winter when most of the rest of us were singing some good vibes right along with Chris Janson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 All I know is that I am jealous of NC especially if the Nam's persistent insistence on a Mecs (Hecs for them?) comes to fruition. 12Z is impressive. and almost seems to stall the fairly weak recently formed coastal system for almost 1/2 day off the NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Seems like the very end of February/beginning of March offers at least some legitimate hope... As I said, i'd not bet on anything locking in, as the progressive theme of winter is hard to argue against. I'm not thinking about much of anything beyond 10 days (as I stated earlier this "winter"). To your point, yeah, we do find ways to do cold n damp spring rather well round here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: Actually...yes. If some of the long range guidance is correct we're gonna get our perfect winter pattern...well into spring. BTW - I think you were the first in here to call for a crapfest winter when most of the rest of us were singing some good vibes right along with Chris Janson. I got blasted for saying we'd be on the outside looking in. Turns out even I was wrong - no one on the east coast has been "in" except I guess interior northern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 minute ago, canderson said: I got blasted for saying we'd be on the outside looking in. Turns out even I was wrong - no one on the east coast has been "in" except I guess interior northern New England. actually from the northern tier of Pa through much of NY straight into the Dacks to southern VT/NH is doing pretty well for the last 3 weeks. Here's links to snow cams as i dont want any to think I'm making stuff up. http://www.northernchateau.com/ http://www.swedenhillsnocam.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: Actually...yes. If some of the long range guidance is correct we're gonna get our perfect winter pattern...well into spring. BTW - I think you were the first in here to call for a crapfest winter when most of the rest of us were singing some good vibes right along with Chris Janson. I"m blaming the Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 31 minutes ago, pasnownut said: actually from the northern tier of Pa through much of NY straight into the Dacks to southern VT/NH is doing pretty well for the last 3 weeks. Here's links to snow cams as i dont want any to think I'm making stuff up. http://www.northernchateau.com/ http://www.swedenhillsnocam.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 13 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Amazing to me the lack of snow in the Laurel Highlands and down into WV. Not often you take a trip west on the turnpike to Pittsburgh in February and see nothing but green. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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