Central PA - February 2020

[daxx]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

That was a great one as well!

I even liked last year with the 3 events within around the first 4 days or so of March.

I remember many of us were keying in on the last event of the 3, then then @Bubbler86 was all over the the second event that gave us a few inches. That whole period was a lot of fun on here!

MDT ended up with close to 12 inches with the 3 events all combined if I am not mistaken.

Yea...the first week of March last year was a lot of fun! I think we gave the storm bubblers name. Lol

[Itstrainingtime]

Best spring snowstorm? That's easy...4/6/1982. 9" of pure fluff with temps midday in the 20s and winds cranking over 40mph. We had a drift over 9' in our driveway.

On April freaking 6th. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Talk about a rarity! 

[daxx]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Talk about a rarity! 

Yea much later date but 2018 doubled that amount.  If you go back and look at that thread, you actually posted it was record snowfall for Lancaster county.

[Blizzard of 93]

12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Talk about a rarity! 

That looks awesome. I was only 5 back in ‘82, so I don’t remember that one, but I wouldn’t mind a repeat in about 7 weeks!

I thought I saw if posted somewhere that there was another more minor event in early April of 82 in the northeast? Did that one impact CTP as well ?

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, daxx said:

Yea much later date but 2018 doubled that amount.  If you go back and look at that thread, you actually posted it was record snowfall for Lancaster county.

100% correct buddy! Both storms were historic and one of a kind for sure - as an enthusiast and after some reflection I'd rate 1982 higher for one reason...how often is it 25 degrees midday on April 6th? The snow/wind/temp trio produced epic drifting for any month let alone April. I was a junior in high school and remember going outside in the middle of the day thinking to myself that it had the look of early January. It was incredible stuff!

I often wonder which is more anomalous...and I'd love to get @MAG5035 thoughts on this - is getting 5.5" of snow in Lancaster a bigger deal on October 29th or getting 9" of snow on April 6th? I think about that kind of stuff a lot.  

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

That looks awesome. I was only 5 back in ‘82, so I don’t remember that one, but I wouldn’t mind a repeat in about 7 weeks!

I thought I saw if posted somewhere that there was another more minor event in early April of 82 in the northeast? Did that one impact CTP as well ?

If so I have no recollection. Another crazy weather event was on 10/9/1979 when the first game of the World Series was snowed out at Memorial Stadium in Baltimore. I remember this because I had tickets.  For the record, I received 1" of snow that morning. Earliest measurable snow that I remember by a long shot. 

[daxx]

No doubt historic for sure!  For me October snow for the lsv is extremely rare.  I've seen snow in April many time, not always huge amounts.

[CarlislePaWx]

12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

If so I have no recollection. Another crazy weather event was on 10/9/1979 when the first game of the World Series was snowed out at Memorial Stadium in Baltimore. I remember this because I had tickets.  For the record, I received 1" of snow that morning. Earliest measurable snow that I remember by a long shot. 

That one is easy for me to remember.  I got 2" from it (north Jersey)...and it was just 2 days after my 20th birthday.  You'll have a harder time remembering further back....but before this one became the earliest snowfall for me, October 18th, 1972 I also got about 2" of snow.  I was in 8th grade.  I vividly remember all of the Maple trees which were in full color, totally smothered in snow and drooping down low.

As for April 6, 1982, that was a Tuesday.  The day before it was sunny and in the upper 40's.  It took an incredibly anomalous deep trough to produce that storm.  The thicknesses were down around 510dm, which is insane for April.  That's what was able to keep temps in the 20's with sun on Wednesday.  I also got 9" out of that one.  I dropped to 16 degrees overnight going into the 7th.  Central Park broke 2 record lows for both the 6th and 7th when the temp before and after midnight reached 21 degrees there.  Great stuff indeed!

[Itstrainingtime]

11 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

That one is easy for me to remember.  I got 2" from it (north Jersey)...and it was just 2 days after my 20th birthday.  You'll have a harder time remembering further back....but before this one became the earliest snowfall for me, October 18th, 1972 I also got about 2" of snow.  I was in 8th grade.  I vividly remember all of the Maple trees which were in full color, totally smothered in snow and drooping down low.

As for April 6, 1982, that was a Tuesday.  The day before it was sunny and in the upper 40's.  It took an incredibly anomalous deep trough to produce that storm.  The thicknesses were down around 510dm, which is insane for April.  That's what was able to keep temps in the 20's with sun on Wednesday.  I also got 9" out of that one.  I dropped to 16 degrees overnight going into the 7th.  Central Park broke 2 record lows for both the 6th and 7th when the temp before and after midnight reached 21 degrees there.  Great stuff indeed!

I was spending my lunch hour reading about 1982...many long-time mets consider that to be #1 for rare northeast blizzards. And it was a true blizzard meeting every criteria and then some. I know that March 2018 was incredible and historic but you really need to remember 1982 to appreciate it for what it was. My goodness, I was reading some articles and I was getting goosebumps...I think even I was underestimating how incredible the storm was! For any time! I was wrong about it being 25 at noon that Tuesday - a little digging and I discovered that Lancaster was 21 degrees at high noon...

That storm was the first time that a Blizzard Warning was issued for NYC, I read.

I remember being transported by snowmobile to my family doctor during the winter of 1972 but couldn't tell you when. I was 6 but remember all of our back roads being drifted shut, so my dad hailed our neighbor and off on his sled to the doctor in Columbia I went! 

[Superstorm]

100% correct buddy! Both storms were historic and one of a kind for sure - as an enthusiast and after some reflection I'd rate 1982 higher for one reason...how often is it 25 degrees midday on April 6th? The snow/wind/temp trio produced epic drifting for any month let alone April. I was a junior in high school and remember going outside in the middle of the day thinking to myself that it had the look of early January. It was incredible stuff!
I often wonder which is more anomalous...and I'd love to get [mention=1507]MAG5035[/mention] thoughts on this - is getting 5.5" of snow in Lancaster a bigger deal on October 29th or getting 9" of snow on April 6th? I think about that kind of stuff a lot.  

I think a moderate snow in October is tougher to come by.

In April I think the cold air is at least more readily available in Canada.


.

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

I think a moderate snow in October is tougher to come by.

In April I think the cold air is at least more readily available in Canada.


.

I guess, I've already been outvoted by both you and @daxx so I'll concede. My hangup on '82 was really about the temp and wind...21 degrees at noon in Lancaster on April 6th? 9' drifts? Regardless...good luck seeing either of those events happen again. 

[daxx]

8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I guess, I've already been outvoted by both you and @daxx so I'll concede. My hangup on '82 was really about the temp and wind...21 degrees at noon in Lancaster on April 6th? 9' drifts? Regardless...good luck seeing either of those events happen again. 

To be honest your assessment of historic is more accurate than mine.  Im bias to snowfall amounts.  I know that's not all to consider for historic. 

[MAG5035]

I'm not sure what it did in the LSV, but if you guys want an anomalous event try April 27-28th, 1928. Yup, thats a 36" near Somerset, PA.

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I'm not sure what it did in the LSV, but if you guys want an anomalous event try April 27-28th, 1928. Yup, thats a 36" near Somerset, PA.

 

Makes one wonder how long there was snow cover...

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, daxx said:

No doubt historic for sure!  For me October snow for the lsv is extremely rare.  I've seen snow in April many time, not always huge amounts.

earliest I've seen was Oct 14 back in 85-86 i think.  I was up in Tioga w/ my brother as we were grouse hunting, and it was so so wet.  By the end of the hunt....so were we.

 

[MAG5035]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

100% correct buddy! Both storms were historic and one of a kind for sure - as an enthusiast and after some reflection I'd rate 1982 higher for one reason...how often is it 25 degrees midday on April 6th? The snow/wind/temp trio produced epic drifting for any month let alone April. I was a junior in high school and remember going outside in the middle of the day thinking to myself that it had the look of early January. It was incredible stuff!

I often wonder which is more anomalous...and I'd love to get @MAG5035 thoughts on this - is getting 5.5" of snow in Lancaster a bigger deal on October 29th or getting 9" of snow on April 6th? I think about that kind of stuff a lot.  

It's kind of a toss up. If you look at it from a sun angle perspective with getting it to accumulate your over a month past the fall equinox on Oct 29th and 2 weeks past the Spring equinox April 6. The sun on October 29th is just about where it would be right now, so it's definitely harder for accums on the ground. But in terms of air masses your probably talking similar probabilities of having a setup with sufficient cold air available.

13 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

earliest I've seen was Oct 14 back in 85-86 i think.  I was up in Tioga w/ my brother as we were grouse hunting, and it was so so wet.  By the end of the hunt....so were we.

 

Earliest I've seen is Oct 2, 2011 at elevation on the top of the Allegheny front up from where I live and the latest was May 11, 2010 and May 12, 2008. 

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

It's kind of a toss up. If you look at it from a sun angle perspective with getting it to accumulate your over a month past the fall equinox on Oct 29th and 2 weeks past the Spring equinox April 6. The sun on October 29th is just about where it would be right now, so it's definitely harder for accums on the ground. But in terms of air masses your probably talking similar probabilities of having a setup with sufficient cold air available.

Earliest I've seen is Oct 2, 2011 at elevation on the top of the Allegheny front up from where I live and the latest was May 11, 2010 and May 12, 2008. 

speaking of anomalous, didnt Somerset get 40 some" a couple Marches ago.  I can remember snowmobilers complaining about not being able to get into parking lots and not having it goomed....or something along those lines.

 

[pasnownut]

As I like looking at 500 maps (and as Daxx suggested earlier),  Looks like next 10 days is much the same and from that period on, the PAC/PNA seems to get better flow to it which may end the cutterfest we've been enduring.  Only worry, is that its 10 days away. 

IF we could get something to trail the cutter that digs this trough in the east, it could lead to some fun round here.

 

[MAG5035]

16 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

speaking of anomalous, didnt Somerset get 40 some" a couple Marches ago.  I can remember snowmobilers complaining about not being able to get into parking lots and not having it goomed....or something along those lines.

 

I don't recall anything that crazy in the last few years, although the March 2018 storm delivered some 20+ in the southern Laurels. 

[Wmsptwx]

We had close to 20 inches in March 17 or 18 I can’t remember for some reason...but it was biggest storm I remember.

[pasnownut]

9 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I don't recall anything that crazy in the last few years, although the March 2018 storm delivered some 20+ in the southern Laurels. 

maybe it was  from multiple events?  I just remember folks complaining about not being able to ride because of too much snow...in march #sunanglemyarse

[canderson]

Great day to ready the garden for spring. 54 in the shade, 61 in full sun. 
 

So many things are poking out. 

[Itstrainingtime]

19 minutes ago, canderson said:

Great day to ready the garden for spring. 54 in the shade, 61 in full sun. 
 

So many things are poking out. 

Today is another over-performer for temps. Seems to happen very frequently. 

[MAG5035]

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

As I like looking at 500 maps (and as Daxx suggested earlier),  Looks like next 10 days is much the same and from that period on, the PAC/PNA seems to get better flow to it which may end the cutterfest we've been enduring.  Only worry, is that its 10 days away. 

IF we could get something to trail the cutter that digs this trough in the east, it could lead to some fun round here.

 

The ops all have some kind of a wave that seems to take an okay track near the 25th today, esp on the Euro and GFS and some semblance of it on the GEFS. Problem is marginal cold again. We get another half decent dose of cold with a strong high that drops down later this week (probably squashes the system after tonight's too) but it's quickly routed and cut off again from us for the potential arrival of the aforementioned 25th system.

Just hasn't been there at the lower levels, and it's been that way all winter.. despite it not really being an outright torch for a good part of it. I've noticed on model forecasts that 1000-500 thicknesses that can usually get the job done, aren't. Take that Feb 25th system progged on the GFS for an example. We're getting late but not THAT late in the season yet, so we can typically do marginal setups somewhat above the magic 540 number, especially with the track the GFS has under PA with the 546 line staying mostly at the mason-dixon line and a low transfer. That should be a straight up light to moderate all snow event for at least everyone above the turnpike in here. The 500mb checks out okay with an undercutting look and high heights , and that's around the timeframe the EPO is supposed to be flipping negative. But theres no cold air in Canada (relative to average for them) and the cold air that is available dumps into the western US trough. 

 I definitely think the EPO is a big influence, but I still think the +AO could mitigate what it could do if it went negative. I don't feel a run of the mill -EPO is going to counter a continued +2 to +3 AO that the progs are showing enough to matter here. We need to neutralize the AO. I think a reversal is coming eventually with the seasonal slowing of the jet. But with how anomalously strong that and the PV have been all year, how long is that major shift upstairs going to take?

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

The ops all have some kind of a wave that seems to take an okay track near the 25th today, esp on the Euro and GFS and some semblance of it on the GEFS. Problem is marginal cold again. We get another half decent dose of cold with a strong high that drops down later this week (probably squashes the system after tonight's too) but it's quickly routed and cut off again from us for the potential arrival of the aforementioned 25th system.

Just hasn't been there at the lower levels, and it's been that way all winter.. despite it not really being an outright torch for a good part of it. I've noticed on model forecasts that 1000-500 thicknesses that can usually get the job done, aren't. Take that Feb 25th system progged on the GFS for an example. We're getting late but not THAT late in the season yet, so we can typically do marginal setups somewhat above the magic 540 number, especially with the track the GFS has under PA with the 546 line staying mostly at the mason-dixon line and a low transfer. That should be a straight up light to moderate all snow event for at least everyone above the turnpike in here. The 500mb checks out okay with an undercutting look and high heights , and that's around the timeframe the EPO is supposed to be flipping negative. But theres no cold air in Canada (relative to average for them) and the cold air that is available dumps into the western US trough. 

 I definitely think the EPO is a big influence, but I still think the +AO could mitigate what it could do if it went negative. I don't feel a run of the mill -EPO is going to counter a continued +2 to +3 AO that the progs are showing enough to matter here. We need to neutralize the AO. I think a reversal is coming eventually with the seasonal slowing of the jet. But with how anomalously strong that and the PV have been all year, how long is that major shift upstairs going to take?

Yeah, I was trying to focus on the flow and how verbatim on 12 Ens, they all seem to have things going beneath/under us then or shortly after, and that has been a big challenge in the last 2 years.  That in itself is a good sign, but yeah, seeing the hights in Canada (a la GEFS) verbatim is just another wasted window.  I just know that as long as we have things going under us, it is still the time that it can happen, and we've seen that multiple times in the past few years as we approach spring.  

[Bubbler86]

2 hours ago, canderson said:

Great day to ready the garden for spring. 54 in the shade, 61 in full sun. 
 

So many things are poking out. 

Was travelling between York and Gettysburg today and there are two golf courses on route 30....both were overflowing with people riding carts and playing 9 or 18 holes.  Surprised that the courses will let people play this early.  

[canderson]

29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Was travelling between York and Gettysburg today and there are two golf courses on route 30....both were overflowing with people riding carts and playing 9 or 18 holes.  Surprised that the courses will let people play this early.  

Course have been open on/off all season.  It’s been warm enough the greens a aren’t dying out entirely. 

It’s like I’m back in Texas. 

[pawatch]

5 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

We had close to 20 inches in March 17 or 18 I can’t remember for some reason...but it was biggest storm I remember.

March 2017

[Itstrainingtime]

Parts of the Carolinas might get a decent snow later this week. Good for them!