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Central PA - February 2020


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Wait...we're talking about an event tomorrow? From what I'm seeing this looks to be a solid rain event (LSV) from this evening through the overnight with just a leftover shower early AM tomorrow. What am I missing? 

From what I can see the LSV should easily reach the 50s before the arrival of the cold front...

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18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Wait...we're talking about an event tomorrow? From what I'm seeing this looks to be a solid rain event (LSV) from this evening through the overnight with just a leftover shower early AM tomorrow. What am I missing? 

From what I can see the LSV should easily reach the 50s before the arrival of the cold front...

It pretty much is based on the stuff I am seeing though the NAM keeps trying to start it off as a quick snow burst for some. On the subject of temps the low Friday night keep getting adjusted up and up.  A few more adjustments and @Voyager flowers will survive after all.

 

BUT people in the North could really see a nice snowfall tonight before changeover.  A sloppy 1-4"

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It pretty much is based on the stuff I am seeing though the NAM keeps trying to start it off as a quick snow burst for some. On the subject of temps the low Friday night keep getting adjusted up and up.  A few more adjustments and @Voyager flowers will survive after all.

 

BUT people in the North could really see a nice snowfall tonight before changeover.  A sloppy 1-4"

 

 

I agree with all of that...I was surprised more by the timing as this looks to be a predominately nighttime event to me. I think we might have some leftovers early tomorrow but the balance of the day seems dry, windy and mild. 

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

I agree with all of that...I was surprised more by the timing as this looks to be a predominately nighttime event to me. I think we might have some leftovers early tomorrow but the balance of the day seems dry, windy and mild. 

Its actually already entering Franklin county though I bet some is virga. 

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1 hour ago, daxx said:

I predict 0.61" of liquid for my area tomorrow. MAYBE a couple sleet pellets to start.

Here is what Horst is saying:

"Another moist storm cutting to our west. Without downstream blocking (which there's been none of this winter), these west-tracking storms will keep bringing us mainly rain. This batch arrives early evening--perhaps a few sleet pellets...but otherwise all rain in Lanco."

 

Are you guys forecasting together? :) (at least he substituted "perhaps" for your "maybe") 

 

 

 

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46 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It pretty much is based on the stuff I am seeing though the NAM keeps trying to start it off as a quick snow burst for some. On the subject of temps the low Friday night keep getting adjusted up and up.  A few more adjustments and @Voyager flowers will survive after all.

 

BUT people in the North could really see a nice snowfall tonight before changeover.  A sloppy 1-4"

 

Maybe, but I almost wish we were getting about 4" of snow before the cold hits. The tulips are about 1-2 inches out of the ground, and a covering of snow would protect them somewhat from the harsh cold.

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11 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Know it’s kinda nitpicking but kinda strange ctp added advisories for East and west of us but left southern Lycoming and Clinton out. Typically we hold cold better than those locales.

We got one, which I kind of figured might happen once we were given a hazardous weather outlook this morning.

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17 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Know it’s kinda nitpicking but kinda strange ctp added advisories for East and west of us but left southern Lycoming and Clinton out. Typically we hold cold better than those locales.

I never seem to be able to make heads or tails of the decisions for the advisories.  We have had two this year when it was very evident we were going to stay well above freezing and our zones had no mention of  any winter precip yet your zone forecast calls for straight freezing rain and no advisory.   I have to think any real ice concerns are going to be very localized and not widespread but if something like the NAM's depiction of several hours of mashed potato snow happened then things could get hairy.

 

 

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Dr. No is saving us a lot of typing for 7 days from now with its Rust Belt Runner.  He's like the Oprah of the Met world...Detroit You get rain!!! Lake Erie You Get Rain!!! Mt Washington You get Rain!!!  The N/W corner of Maine You get Rain!!   It does usher in one of the more impressive Eastern Half of the US Cold fronts for the season but the cold air evacuates faster than the crowd at an intermission of a Risk Astley concert.   The Precip map for the weekend of the 22nd is almost comical with the only lower 48 precip being Ocean Effect (fake) rain in the Space Coast of Florida. 

 

 

 

Capture.JPG

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34 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Dr. No is saving us a lot of typing for 7 days from now with its Rust Belt Runner.  He's like the Oprah of the Met world...Detroit You get rain!!! Lake Erie You Get Rain!!! Mt Washington You get Rain!!!  The N/W corner of Maine You get Rain!!   It does usher in one of the more impressive Eastern Half of the US Cold fronts for the season but the cold air evacuates faster than the crowd at an intermission of a Risk Astley concert.   The Precip map for the weekend of the 22nd is almost comical with the only lower 48 precip being Ocean Effect (fake) rain in the Space Coast of Florida. 

 

 

 

Capture.JPG

Just unbelievable. 

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Snow on the 511 cams on US 219 south of the turnpike in Somerset County, as well as on the MD CHART cams in western MD. Maybe some of the central folks could do a little better on the front end if some decent precip gets in here right off the bat. Although any accums are likely to be elevational for the AOO-UNV-IPT region.

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

I never seem to be able to make heads or tails of the decisions for the advisories.  We have had two this year when it was very evident we were going to stay well above freezing and our zones had no mention of  any winter precip yet your zone forecast calls for straight freezing rain and no advisory.   I have to think any real ice concerns are going to be very localized and not widespread but if something like the NAM's depiction of several hours of mashed potato snow happened then things could get hairy.

 

 

 

2 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

Know it’s kinda nitpicking but kinda strange ctp added advisories for East and west of us but left southern Lycoming and Clinton out. Typically we hold cold better than those locales.

They're issuing advisories not necessarily because of the snow, but for lingering freezing rain potential on mainly the ridges in these counties after precip flips over. CTP mentioned about adding advisories for this earlier in the day in their discussion and this was in their new discussion update below. Those higher elevations will be somewhat cooler than the lower valley locations in southern Centre and Lycoming, especially with some accumulating snow on the front end. Valley temps may stay a bit above freezing, even with early snowfall to start. Just too marginal an airmass with no high to the north. Any half decent high to the north with a storm track as this one is taking would have at least introduced a more significant period of snow/icing for the majority of folks. This is more of a gradient type deal, which we have mostly been on the wrong side of all winter. There have been some winners in snowfall with this pattern, and not all that far away at times... but definitely not here in the central and LSV.   

Quote

No sig changes to previous thinking for tonight`s system.
Consensus of 12z models was to be a tad further south with ptype
= snow to start, but this does not appreciably impact snow
accums. Concern for some 15 to 25 mph gusts late tonight in
areas that see ridgetop ice accums up to a tenth of an inch
which were outside of the original Advisory area, so opted to
expand to include the ridgetop locations of Clearfield, N
Centre, Montour and Schuylkill Counties in a Winter Weather
Advisory for up to a tenth of an inch of ice after the initial
coating of snow.

 

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5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Snow on the 511 cams on US 219 south of the turnpike in Somerset County, as well as on the MD CHART cams in western MD. Maybe some of the central folks could do a little better on the front end if some decent precip gets in here right off the bat. Although any accums are likely to be elevational for the AOO-UNV-IPT region.

 

 

 

We dropped several degrees when the rain started but so light right now I am not looking for flakes but still think we could see a few here...no accums of course.  Lt rain and 39 right now. 

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Just now, daxx said:

Good for you! I can't even call it a cold rain here. I have 43 and sprinkles

I like everyone to feel good about stuff so going to insert some weenie "It will get better" phrases here such as- Cold air will come from above, you just need the rate to increase, with this dewpoint I am sure to be all frozen,  the HRRR is pulling a coup and changing us all to snow, it is me or does the radar look like it is back building the snow,  The MA forum is reporting snow so its coming your way.

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