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Central PA - February 2020


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6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

So maybe I am missing something but the chart should say lowest after each rank I guess.   Note that they do use Met Winter for their rankings so by that definition Winter is down to its last 2 1/2 weeks. 

I thought the same.  It was misleading (although ugly for sure)

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21 hours ago, daxx said:

No need to get on a plane.  Just drive 5 to 6 hours north. Go to the Tug Hill.  I was just there for a week and there is plenty of snow. Stay on the west side of the hill. The town to look for is named Worth.   From there to 8 miles south of the town they have 30 inches on the ground. I used airbnb for housing. 

Thanks Nut and Daxx for the info!

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16 minutes ago, paweather said:

Thanks Nut and Daxx for the info!

You bet!  I can get even more specific. State road 96 east of Worth and Townline road southeast of Lorraine are in my opinion the best places on the Tug hill for snow.  I’ve been to just about every spot on the hill and I consider this area the best. 

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42 minutes ago, daxx said:

You bet!  I can get even more specific. State road 96 east of Worth and Townline road southeast of Lorraine are in my opinion the best places on the Tug hill for snow.  I’ve been to just about every spot on the hill and I consider this area the best. 

Which side of State Road 96 east do you prefer? :lol:

I still think March might produce. Too soon to give up, that's for sure. 

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27 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Which side of State Road 96 east do you prefer? :lol:

I still think March might produce. Too soon to give up, that's for sure. 

Agreed. But I don't know if I can even chance March around here with what is going on now. Not giving up, just don't want to miss out on one pure winter event. :-)  

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Well the board is dead so going to play a little game...many have probably seen those EC Ensemble percentage maps Will posts on the MA.  It shows the chances of large areas getting 3" or more of snow in a given period.  They do not always make sense because some ensemble members will show snow in an area then that map show a 0 percent chance.   I am going to give my percentages of a given area getting 1" or more of snow in 3 different chances over the next 8-9 days.  The sole reason for doing this is to point out we still could see snow in the next 10 days and @daxx cannot really call it a snow map :-).

 

This Wed Night:

          Somewhere in the Southern Half of the forum--20%

          Somewhere in the Northern Half of the Forum----80%

This Sunday Night:

          Somewhere in the Southern Half of the forum--20%

          Somewhere in the Northern Half of the Forum----40%

Thursday-Friday the 20th and 21st:

         Somewhere in the Southern Half of the forum--40%

          Somewhere in the Northern Half of the Forum----20%

 

 

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

Abilene, Texas, has double the snow total of most of Pennsylvania. 

That North Centralish area of Texas always gets noticed when they get snow but they are in a great position to have cold air dumped on them when a trough is centered in the middle of the country.  In '96 they had 10" of snow in April!  With that said they should not average more than us.  LOL. 

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Same old pattern...

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...A period of snow will develop in the evening, becoming a
wintry mix around midnight. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3
inches followed by ice accumulations of a glaze to a tenth of
an inch.

* WHERE...Northern Clinton, Northern Lycoming and Sullivan
Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

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1 hour ago, pawatch said:

Same old pattern...

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...A period of snow will develop in the evening, becoming a
wintry mix around midnight. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3
inches followed by ice accumulations of a glaze to a tenth of
an inch.

* WHERE...Northern Clinton, Northern Lycoming and Sullivan
Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

On the bright side, this same old pattern is at least bringing you SOME snow. :)

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Have any of you even looked at the short range models lately?

Im confused, as they did pretty well last week and now advertise a CTP event tomorrow (mind you not a big one, but its something)...and if correct, someone in the LSV gets your 5" tomorrow.  While I realize the doom and gloom...and no endless weeks of winter (like I want).  Snow is still snow.  I'll also add that someones gonna bust bad, as my CTP forecast for Akron is rain and 53, and 12z come in looking like below??

 

wrf-arw2_asnow_neus_27.png

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3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Just for fun....

 

Its that messed up TT algorithm showing these totals though the NAM does show a nice 1-4" hit for many North and West of us.  The Nam did pretty poorly last Friday so taking it with a grain of salt and it hurts me to say that.  Here is the NAM on Pivotal.  

image.png.7b3b0082918504893e25f43c085d7978.png

 

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9 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

I agree...no real reason why, just a feeling.

My reason is somewhat based on something more than my own intution. I will never try to forecast based on LR future indices and indicators that are often so wrong they cover up the true nature of forecasting.  I think it is valuable to learn from them when looking after the event to help forecast but our SR and MR models  have issues with getting apparent weather right day to day there is no way I am worrying about 10 day Ao forecasts.   So my reason behind thinking the LSV gets some more snow is the roller-coaster nature of our temps this winter.  Its not like we have not had temps cold enough for snow...we have...the storm track has ditched our best efforts to use the temps.  Some of it AO based and some of it just plan bad luck.   But one consistent theme has been that warm ups have been fairly short lived and mostly inspired by the negative storm track.  If that trend continues it should be cold enough for snow well into March. 

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11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Its that messed up TT algorithm showing these totals though the NAM does show a nice 1-4" hit for many North and West of us.  The Nam did pretty poorly last Friday so taking it with a grain of salt and it hurts me to say that.  Here is the NAM on Pivotal.  

 

 

I know the TT algorythm is whacked, and typically divide by 2.

It didn't do poorly in the northwoods last week.  It was rather close north of 80-6 corridor.  

The 7 is basically over my cabin.  We got 7" on the button on top and 5-6 in the valleys.  Eyeballing on the way up.  Elysburg 1", Danville about the same, Wspt 2", and from Tioga border (liberty exit and further up, 4".  Not a bust in my book.  

namconus_asnow_neus_12.png

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Just now, pasnownut said:

I know the TT algorythm is whacked, and typically divide by 2.

It didn't do poorly in the northwoods last week.  It was rather close north of 80-6 corridor.  

The 7 is basically over my cabin.  We got 7" on the button on top and 5-6 in the valleys.  Eyeballing on the way up.  Elysburg 1", Danville about the same, Wspt 2", and from Tioga border (liberty exit and further up, 4".  Not a bust in my book.  

 

Yea I was speaking specific to the LSV as I thought that was what we were talking about for this one.  It did not do too well down here.  It had 2-4" over my area and we did not get a flake.  The TT map is so messed up sometimes that it shows snow where no snow or sleet is shown on the radar panel. 

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14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

My reason is somewhat based on something more than my own intution. I will never try to forecast based on LR future indices and indicators that are often so wrong they cover up the true nature of forecasting.  I think it is valuable to learn from them when looking after the event to help forecast but our SR and MR models  have issues with getting apparent weather right day to day there is no way I am worrying about 10 day Ao forecasts.   So my reason behind thinking the LSV gets some more snow is the roller-coaster nature of our temps this winter.  Its not like we have not had temps cold enough for snow...we have...the storm track has ditched our best efforts to use the temps.  Some of it AO based and some of it just plan bad luck.   But one consistent theme has been that warm ups have been fairly short lived and mostly inspired by the negative storm track.  If that trend continues it should be cold enough for snow well into March. 

Good points.  I would add that due to the changing envirnment, analogs and LR indicators have seemed to be of less use in the last 2 years.  I'm hoping its just a couple of anomalous years, and not a trend, but something that raises an eyebrow.  To your point though, they all can change rather abruptly, and in my mind, Feb/Mar is the new prime time for snow as winter has matured, and what cold we have is typically at a maximum.  Unfortunately we dont get to "push" winter further into March, but it does seem to be the time when its "easiest".  Hope that makes sense.

 

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7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea I was speaking specific to the LSV as I thought that was what we were talking about for this one.  It did not do too well down here.  It had 2-4" over my area and we did not get a flake.  The TT map is so messed up sometimes that it shows snow where no snow or sleet is shown on the radar panel. 

In my mind its the "transitional" areas that I'd agree may struggle on TT, but in defense of my point, the Pivotal map you posted was underdone in the northern tier as well.  That's not an argument, that's just something to point out regarding the usefulness/accuracy of the NAM suite.  As we rode all over western tioga, southern/mid potter, i can tell you 4" was rather common, with some areas in excess.   

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9 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

In my mind its the "transitional" areas that I'd agree may struggle on TT, but in defense of my point, the Pivotal map you posted was underdone in the northern tier as well.  That's not an argument, that's just something to point out regarding the usefulness/accuracy of the NAM suite.  As we rode all over western tioga, southern/mid potter, i can tell you 4" was rather common, with some areas in excess.   

No doubt the Pivotal map can be a bit underdone especially the Kuchera one which is what I posted.  It is good though for removing the transitional areas like you mentioned.  The radar panels never show frozen anywhere in the LSV on the Nam which matches up better on the Pivotal map.

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