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Central PA - February 2020


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8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Unfortunately with the lack of cold air we would need it to come way under us using the temp maps I am seeing and I would not think it would.   The 12Z Icon had cold air pressing in from the North East but not sure I would see the Nam doing that.  The High on the 12Z Icon is now apparently gone on the 18Z Icon.   Frustrating. 

Agreed. Expectations need to be seriously in check with this threat...way more reasons why this fails than succeeds. 

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For those interested, 5 confirmed tornadoes in the LWX forecast area yesterday morning. All of them between the M/D and DC. How often in the height of severe season does a weather office in our area on the country have 5 confirmed twisters on the same day? Obviously it happens...but what an exceptionally rare event yesterday. 

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7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

For those interested, 5 confirmed tornadoes in the LWX forecast area yesterday morning. All of them between the M/D and DC. How often in the height of severe season does a weather office in our area on the country have 5 confirmed twisters on the same day? Obviously it happens...but what an exceptionally rare event yesterday. 

Wow, that’s very unusual and probably never happened before. 

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Good Luck with it.  Changing jobs, worrying about jobs, etc...puts weather into perspective of it not being all that important (unless you have to drive in it).

 

Thanks!

it's not something I wanted to do, but I've hardly worked since Christmas, so a change needed to be made. If I stayed, I'd have to endure another 2 months of hit or miss work, followed by 2 months of non-stop work (school field trips) followed by about 5 months of hit and miss work again until the Christmas theater trips picked up in November/December, after which it would go in the tank again.

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9 hours ago, Voyager said:

Thanks!

it's not something I wanted to do, but I've hardly worked since Christmas, so a change needed to be made. If I stayed, I'd have to endure another 2 months of hit or miss work, followed by 2 months of non-stop work (school field trips) followed by about 5 months of hit and miss work again until the Christmas theater trips picked up in November/December, after which it would go in the tank again.

Yea, that does not sound like it would be something that would be a fun life.  I do not blame you for changing. 

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The end of the 12z NAM run looks like mixed precip for CTP on Wednesday.

It is a shame that the models now insist that this southern stream system will run out earlier than originally shown a few days ago. If the storm had held back until later on Thursday, the fresh cold High could have delivered a good snow event.

Maybe the better idea is to have it speed up even further, so it can’t cut to the lakes, but be weaker & pass underneath us ? 

 

CDAEB4FC-9915-4765-AE3D-DDE5DAE72A0B.png

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10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The end of the 12z NAM run looks like mixed precip for CTP on Wednesday.

It is a shame that the models now insist that this southern stream system will run out earlier than originally shown a few days ago. If the storm had held back until later on Thursday, the fresh cold High could have delivered a good snow event.

Maybe the better idea is to have it speed up even further, so it can’t cut to the lakes, but be weaker & pass underneath us ? 

 

 

Yea, and the same map at 6Z had all snow.  The process has been going the same as all the other systems this year, save for that one that surprised York county with big snow.  Backing off as it gets closer to the event.   I think we need more than it passing under us.  We need a high to our North East to hold in cold air. The Icon from yesterday morning. 

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27 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

My parents in Huntingdon county told me that the fish are up in their pond, their golden retriever reported that by standing in the pond up to his chest like a total derp, and their muskrats are out and about. 

That can't be a great sign.

We saw hyacinths yesterday fully poked out. Mosquitoes this year will be absolutely out of control.   

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Maybe it’s just radar hallucinations, but there looks to be a growing area of precip over southern Ohio. Most models developed the heavier precip across northern PA during the early stages of the event.

Perhaps even southern PA can get in on some wet snow tonight if the heavier  precip arrives before the little cold air that we have leaves tomorrow morning ?

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I'm gonna be shocked if we don't get much more snow for the season. But looking at the next 10 days it looks incredibly nice if you don't like the cold. 4 days below 50 and then the rest of the time is just 50's where I am. A ton of the nighttime lows are closer to what the daytime averages should be. Here in Enola I've only gotten 5 or 6 inches of snow so far but here's hoping maybe we get a big storm at the end of the month or March to make up for this.

Also I had to kill 12 mosquitoes in my house 3 days ago. I've never seen them this early ever in my life.

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Earlier this morning I read my weekly newsletter put out by Larry Cosgrove (former NYC TV Met, now an energy markets met in Houston, Tx).  Hate to disappoint all but his long range forecast all but says winter is over.  The Euro weeklies and monthlies show nothing but above normal for almost the entire country every month from now through August!  For those who follow Enso, we've spent most of this winter in positive-neutral territory.  That would typically be a pretty good spot to be in if all the other indices weren't running against us.  Well, the Enso models are pretty emphatically showing a steady decline towards neutral by April and then continuing down right into a moderate La Nina by summertime...lasting right into next fall.  Unfortunately, for those of us who dislike hot, humid summers the news is not good.  The stronger the LaNina, the hotter the summer.  So while we've been fortunate to have a string of only mild summers over the past few years it's looking like this upcoming one could be a real roaster.  I wish I had better news, but I just wanted to share his opinions for the long range.  He's usually quite good at piecing together the analog years and coming up with decent long range forecasts.  Of course, none of this means we can't still have a snowstorm over the next 6 weeks, but we could just as easily be looking at a sub-12" snowfall winter season (MDT-area) when all is said and done.

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25 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

I'm gonna be shocked if we don't get much more snow for the season. But looking at the next 10 days it looks incredibly nice if you don't like the cold. 4 days below 50 and then the rest of the time is just 50's where I am. A ton of the nighttime lows are closer to what the daytime averages should be. Here in Enola I've only gotten 5 or 6 inches of snow so far but here's hoping maybe we get a big storm at the end of the month or March to make up for this.

Also I had to kill 12 mosquitoes in my house 3 days ago. I've never seen them this early ever in my life.

We took a walk today and had to swat away gnats.  At this point we have not had a winter and with only 3 weeks left its possible we don't have one at all.

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, it sure does. Maybe for once it can lead the way on a good trend back to the better solutions from earlier this weekend.

Go USA !

 

 

B4034F8E-F251-4544-A906-84920D58AABF.png

 

Kinda suspect of the southern part of that snow zone. GFS is really showing some disjointed action going on there. Not sure if it's the p-type algorithm or what but I've noticed stuff like that from the GFS on the last system as well. It is presenting the best track attm so there probably would be a start as frozen as it just barely slides under PA. There's not a lot of ensemble support for snowfall from the GFS or Euro on this system, especially at MDT. 

Additionally, I think the northern folks  in here might have more of a snow event to deal with overnight into tomorrow than what's really been discussed. Precip just arriving here is in the form of flurries. I think models are being a bit optimistic with warming, especially in the north central region (Clearfield to IPT, perhaps down to UNV depending on precip coverage). Could be a 2-3 incher. Hopefully Nut has an extra day off and is still up north bc he'll probably see another snowfall.  

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50 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Kinda suspect of the southern part of that snow zone. GFS is really showing some disjointed action going on there. Not sure if it's the p-type algorithm or what but I've noticed stuff like that from the GFS on the last system as well. It is presenting the best track attm so there probably would be a start as frozen as it just barely slides under PA. There's not a lot of ensemble support for snowfall from the GFS or Euro on this system, especially at MDT. 

Additionally, I think the northern folks  in here might have more of a snow event to deal with overnight into tomorrow than what's really been discussed. Precip just arriving here is in the form of flurries. I think models are being a bit optimistic with warming, especially in the north central region (Clearfield to IPT, perhaps down to UNV depending on precip coverage). Could be a 2-3 incher. Hopefully Nut has an extra day off and is still up north bc he'll probably see another snowfall.  

Do you think that the LSV has any chance at wet snow this evening with the band of precip that is running near the turnpike? The dew points are in the mid 20’s, & It looks like western PA is getting light snow with temps in the mid 30’s.

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1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Do you think that the LSV has any chance at wet snow this evening with the band of precip that is running near the turnpike? The dew points are in the mid 20’s, & It looks like western PA is getting light snow with temps in the mid 30’s.

Possibly, I have a decent burst of snow falling right now with the band of good echoes overhead. My surface temps are above freezing so nothing's really accumulating. You might see some flakes mix in but surface temps are running a few degrees warmer over there so it may start as light rain. 

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4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Possibly, I have a decent burst of snow falling right now with the band of good echoes overhead. My surface temps are above freezing so nothing's really accumulating. You might see some flakes mix in but surface temps are running a few degrees warmer over there so it may start as light rain. 

I wouldn’t mind seeing some flakes in the air at this point.

On another note, it looks like the 18z Euro took a step towards the GFS with the system later in the week. It wouldn’t take too much to get most of CTP in the mix for a minute minor front end event.

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