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February 4th-7th Winter Storm Potential


Thundersnow12
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After an inch and change of snow, dry slotted. 

Up until yesterday morning it looked like right now would be the main show and tonight-Friday would be a coating at best.  Now, it's been flipped around.

Great work models.  I actually took today off work to avoid the crap commute and tomorrow I'll be stuck in it.

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SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT   
SNOW (LES) SHOWERS LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. LATE THIS   
AFTERNOON, AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING, LES INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO   
INCREASE AS INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE AND AN AXIS OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL   
CONVERGENCE SETTLES OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. LES MODE (SINGLE STRONG   
BAND VS. MULTIPLE LIGHTER BANDS) REMAINS UNCLEAR, BUT THE POTENTIAL   
FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVIER LES EXISTS DURING THE EVENING FOR ORD/MDW,   
AND AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR GYY

 

per lot aviation afd 12z

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3 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

After an inch and change of snow, dry slotted. 

Up until yesterday morning it looked like right now would be the main show and tonight-Friday would be a coating at best.  Now, it's been flipped around.

Great work models.  I actually took today off work to avoid the crap commute and tomorrow I'll be stuck in it.

Before I went to bed last night, I had a strong feeling this 1st wave was going to underperform from radar returns.

This is reminding me of the event back on December 1-2. The first part was a bust as most of the precip fell as sleet and we only got an inch of snow (4-6” was forecast). However, the 2nd part of the event (snow coming from the east from the developing secondary low) later that evening into Monday morning over performed with 3-4”.

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23 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Unimpressive first wave. About an inch imby. HRRR is looking decent for tonight's wave with ~2-3" down by 05z and still snowing. It will most likely be light to moderate snow as the heaviest returns remain south of us. 

9z RAP/6z RGEM go crazy with 6"+ tonight using Kuchera, but I'll believe it when I see it.

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Ended up with 2.0" of 10-1 ratio sugary, sandy snow here, no fluff factor at all. DTW 1.9". Seems like most of Southeast Michigan got between 1-2". Rogue called it about the needles cutting into totals i.e. ratios. Now it looks like they deformation should hit this afternoon and tonight, if there's more fluff factor as there often is in deformation we will get more snow tonight than we did last night. Another A+ job by the models :lol:. Looks pretty out though. 

 

84928852_10112727855966433_3919692204934

 

 

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