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February 4th-7th Winter Storm Potential


Thundersnow12
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4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Here's the event total Kuchera, with some lake effect/enhancement on back side of low pressure Thursday night into early Friday added in. Definitely not what we wanted to see today but hopefully it doesn't trend any worse. 

ecmwf-deterministic-illinois-total_snow_kuchera-1098400.png

Better than I thought.  Euro has like 17:1 ratios around Chi metro.

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Nice head fake today. Can't say had concerns after the earlier 12Z GFS and NAM runs. Always get a chuckle at how these models can flip so quickly from one run to the next even as we close in on an event. In the past 36 hrs went from a non event to a moderate event with even greater potential to a nuisance snow. Just a bad year if your a snow lover...carry on....

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Just now, Baum said:

Nice head fake today. Can't say had concerns after the earlier 12Z GFS and NAM runs. Always get a chuckle at how these models can flip so quickly from one run to the next even as we close in on an event. In the past 36 hrs went from a non event to a moderate event with even greater potential to a nuisance snow. Just a bad year if your a snow lover...carry on....

The Euro never was showing it so you should consider basing forecasts among a blend of guidance and not just a couple. This by no means should be shocking

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The Euro never was showing it so you should consider basing forecasts among a blend of guidance and not just a couple. This by no means should be shocking
The Euro was consistently one of the best solutions for the Chicago metro until the 12z run. It was the GFS and NAM that were well southeast until yesterday and last night and now the 12z runs are the most amped. How the models turn lol.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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43 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Preliminary call for the GTA 2-4". Closer to 4" away from the Lake. 

Good call and actually I’m more intrigued to see if the follow up wave on Friday can deliver a surprise. That one has most of the heaviest snow in western NY, but the GTA is on the western edge.

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2 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

The Euro never was showing it so you should consider basing forecasts among a blend of guidance and not just a couple. This by no means should be shocking

I don't do really do "shocked" it's weather and can change on a dime. And If your saying there hasn't been a southeast shift in the global's 12Z runs today I'd politely disagree. I think you'll note there are far more knowledgeable folks hear posting and alluding to just that. Also, I'm not a model blender I tend to pray and cross my fingers that storm maxes IMBY.:lol:

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1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

17:1 is likely too high as an average but 10:1 is too low, probably near or slightly above climo average is the way to go. So let's say an average of 13 or 14 to 1.

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The DGZ seems so shallow with this system though I can't see it being too much higher than 10:1. 13:1 is probably correct

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16 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

17:1 is likely too high as an average but 10:1 is too low, probably near or slightly above climo average is the way to go. So let's say an average of 13 or 14 to 1.

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NAM and GFS Kuchera ratios look quite a bit lower than the Euro (in a proportional sense when comparing to their 10:1 maps, not in terms of totals) which is interesting.  Euro must have significantly colder max temp aloft since that is what the formula is based on.

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7 minutes ago, Toronto4 said:

Good call and actually I’m more intrigued to see if the follow up wave on Friday can deliver a surprise. That one has most of the heaviest snow in western NY, but the GTA is on the western edge.

Not overly optimistic about it yet. It develops along a cold front and moves NE. If the storm can develop faster and earlier, it can perhaps progress more northward. But that all depends where the initial wave ends up. Models are all over the place. 

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40 minutes ago, Maneee said:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/08/forecasters-fear-5g-wireless-technology-will-muck-weather-predictions

This may have something to do with why models are so squirmy this winter? 

Interesting read.  When you first hear it it seems like some fringe/kook theory but maybe not.  Hard to draw a link between that and model performance lately though.  

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Could ORD's loss be FWA's gain? We now have the Euro, HRRR, the GEM, and the Crazy Uncle in our corner.

It would be nice to get at least one good snowfall this winter. I know, the track will change again at 00z, and I will be crying in my beer. But Jackstraw and I are really jonesing down here.

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23 minutes ago, Stebo said:

DTX talking 1-3. I have no idea what they are looking at but they are going to be wrong. 

I'm scratching my head as well.  I"m no Met, but i've got this feeling that everyone's been burned so bad, they are all taking the conservative route.  

Is it the lack of dynamics that they think will keep everything low??  

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