Baum Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, RyanDe680 said: I think given this winter, 2-4" is amp'ed.... (kicks small 4" x 3" ice glacier) joke going to be on you when you get 6" and reach or exceed your seasonal average too date.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Baum said: most likely overdone...as they typically are...any year...and I would not say amped. Looks like a solid 3-6" snow event with the wildcard being lake enhancement. This was never a 8-12" type event in this neck of the woods. 12Z GFS holds serve on placement it appears. Kuchera fluffy amped. 2-4" looks reasonable with someone near Alek receiving 5". Although inexplicably he'll measure 2.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 24 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: These totals are too amp'ed. This is 2019-2020, year of the overdone model. Even at 10:1, I don't see the moisture to support that swath. While i do agree this is likely too amped, morels are not always overdone on qpf as they were in the past. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Wouldn't go all in on the NAM but it may be telling us something with that band of enhanced totals. The 00z Euro seemed like a good compromise with more like 6-8" in that band. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 I think argument can be made for a watch in the Lake and Cook counties in IL and Lake and Porter counties in Indiana due to uncertainty with the LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Can i lock im gefs ensemble mean lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Unfortunately, wouldn't say confidence in the outcome has increased today for the LOT CWA. While the NAM and GFS were good, and 3km NAM was decent, other models backed off/shifted southeast with snow swath, most notably UKMET and GEFS. Hopefully the 12z Euro doesn't follow the trends of the other guidance since it's overall been most consistent with this set-up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 12z UK a major walk-back for Chicagoland. This run has strengthened the final wave for Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 ^ still a couple inches here, but that model looks weak across the board just about everyone. Can't really say I ever lend to much credence to it in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 First call 1.1"D7 call still in play.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Baum said: ^ still a couple inches here, but that model looks weak across the board just about everyone. Can't really say I ever lend to much credence to it in the first place. Uncle Ukie keepn hope alive for OH & that caboose wave! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 hours ago, sbnwx85 said: Lock it in. Yep, bout time us S of the Chi-town crew get a bulls-eye event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: D7 call still in play. . Not worried till the Euro jumps ship Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: D7 call still in play. . I'll jump on that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 11 minutes ago, Baum said: ^ still a couple inches here, but that model looks weak across the board just about everyone. Can't really say I ever lend to much credence to it in the first place. I think it's more the placement than the amounts. The Ukie amounts look relatively similar to most other models but it is farther south. If we had a UKMET Kuchera map, that would probably be about 4-7" in the se 1/2 of LOT and 6-8" in the narrow band running northeast from STL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: I think it's more the placement than the amounts. The Ukie amounts look relatively similar to most other models but it is farther south. If we had a UKMET Kuchera map, that would probably be about 4-7" in the se 1/2 of LOT and 6-8" in the narrow band running northeast from STL. good point. That sounds a bit better than the moderate intensity event the map shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 15 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: D7 call still in play. . NW burbs fringe player Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, mimillman said: Not worried till the Euro jumps ship At least we have the lake to tack on. Near shore temps have actually spiked back up into the low 40s as of this morning lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Preliminary call for the GTA 2-4". Closer to 4" away from the Lake. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Euro is "Wagons South" through 36... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Euro is "Wagons South" through 36... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Definitely game over for Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Going to lock in 4-7" locally with this one. Looks like a solid hit and for the most part now we should miss the sleet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Brutal euro run lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 Trend is pretty clear so far with faster nrn stream/central plains wave leading to less favorable tilt of the mean trof. Euro is a snoozer up here. 2" and change. NCEP guidance only ones in the wetter camp so toss. Ukie/GEM/Euro all stepped worse. 15z RAP also with that guidance as well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maneee Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 11 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Ouch.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Gotta admit I didn't put a whole lot of thought into getting "missed" to the south over the past 24 hours. Nice one mother nature. Hoping for some northward recovery in the next day or so even if it doesn't come all the way back. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Trend is pretty clear so far with faster nrn stream/central plains wave leading to less favorable tilt of the mean trof. Euro is a snoozer up here. 2" and change. NCEP guidance only ones in the wetter camp so toss. Ukie/GEM/Euro all stepped worse. 15z RAP also with that guidance as well. The central plains wave has been the problem for the models. The GFS, for example, initially had this wave becoming very progressive and badly stretched out. Then, a day or so ago, it suddenly trended toward a much slower, closed-off wave that even allowed good snow to get pulled back into Iowa. That was clearly wrong as well. The other models have been less extreme, but they've all struggled with the details of that wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Here's the event total Kuchera, with some lake effect/enhancement on back side of low pressure Thursday night into early Friday added in. Definitely not what we wanted to see today but hopefully it doesn't trend any worse. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Well personally a fan of this trend for Northern Ohio. But it should be expected, storms of this ilk seem to always go over Cincy and deliver a heck of a shot to Detroit, Toledo, Cleveland. We'll see how it transpires but 3-6" with mixing down towards Findlay seems accurate 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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