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February 4th-7th Winter Storm Potential


Thundersnow12
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Anything can go wrong this far out but as tsnow said in the first post, a more strung out/less phased outcome can still be a decent storm for somebody.  On the other end, you see what happens when there's more phasing like the 12z Canadian.

Early take... I don't expect a clean snow event around here.  

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10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Anything can go wrong this far out but as tsnow said in the first post, a more strung out/less phased outcome can still be a decent storm for somebody.  On the other end, you see what happens when there's more phasing like the 12z Canadian.

Early take... I don't expect a clean snow event around here.  

That's something Alek would say, not Hoosier. 

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2 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

That's something Alek would say, not Hoosier. 

Why bet against it.  The all snow events here have pretty much been inch or less stuff, and the upcoming pattern does not look suppressed as there is pretty strong southeast ridging during this storm's timeframe.  I dare mother nature to make it an all snow event.  :D

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13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Why bet against it.  The all snow events here have pretty much been inch or less stuff, and the upcoming pattern does not look suppressed as there is pretty strong southeast ridging during this storm's timeframe.  I dare mother nature to make it an all snow event.  :D

Fair point. But there are things that may work in your favor. The transitioning NAO and PNA may help to suppress the developing SE ridge somewhat. 

February has been our best month in recent years lol. 

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6 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Fair point. But there are things that may work in your favor. The transitioning NAO and PNA may help to suppress the developing SE ridge somewhat. 

February has been our best month in recent years lol. 

The PNA going from + to - is more supportive of a SE ridge, not the other way around.

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14 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Euro with a more strung out look but still decent for some. 

4-6" swath with initial slug of precip on Tuesday across IA/IL (Chi metro included)

Secondary defo area tries to get going with main system later Wednesday and leads to highest totals in SW MI of 8-12" 

wouldn't say i'm optimistic but i don't hate where we sit

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Anything can go wrong this far out but as tsnow said in the first post, a more strung out/less phased outcome can still be a decent storm for somebody.  On the other end, you see what happens when there's more phasing like the 12z Canadian.

Early take... I don't expect a clean snow event around here.  

2-part scenario is how we roll this winter. The key question is whether we can get the 2nd wave of energy to coincide with proper cold air feed and pull it south into a strengthening SLP.  Jan 11-12 was an utter FAIL in getting the cold far enough south (regardless of moisture stealing to our south)

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3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

The pattern isn't really shifting to anything too different. We are basically reverting back to the pattern we had about 2 weeks ago.

Ofc nothing but cyber-wx is/has shifted at this point. I'll acknowledge a legit shift when a SLP tracks S/SE of mby and (as Hoosier said) produces a non-mix contaminated event around here. Two weeks ago didn't do that. My orig post was looking beyond just next week to the potential the cold finally presses to an EC storm track. Hopefully that does not happen, or at least delays enough to deliver some good systems for our Sub before it does. 

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10 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Sticking with it's single amped wave and north game plan. Let's see if it's a legit trend. Nothing in this garbage bag winter could surprise me less

Too far out to be living and dying 2with each model run. 6z was better. Who knows what 12z will be. Seems like a clipperless winter with a handful of good snowstorms. Hopefully this is one of the storms lol

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Just now, michsnowfreak said:

Too far out to be living and dying 2with each model run. 6z was better. Who knows what 12z will be. Seems like a clipperless winter with a handful of good snowstorms. Hopefully this is one of the storms lol

Yep. At this point I remain happy that there is some run to run consistency of a storm. 

In the old days, we would be approaching the "storm disappear" cycle. Back when the models were only moderate garbage. 

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