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Feb 1-2 storm threat


ORH_wxman
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Just now, wxsniss said:

yeah... and less digging northern stream... and more progressive trough... for both 18z GFS and 18z Euro

H5 and trough orientation on 12z GFS looked most promising to me, but for a surprise to remain a possibility, these ingredients need to at least hold, not worsen

Ya this is over unfortunately.  

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5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya this is over unfortunately.  

Over, no. Less likely, yes.

H5 handling has been very inconsistent, though we consistently get crappy solutions.

I'd give this until at least Thurs 0z to show hints of improvement. Maintaining the status quo obviously won't do it.

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

12z Friday. This has some Messenger tricks coming 

Gonna need this to tick back a bit to make Friday relevant. We’re just getting mucked up by different shortwaves seemingly every run. There’s been some positive trends in the larger scale look but this may just ultimately end up being a case of too much interference. 

Still, I guess there’s enough changes each run to keep an eye on it a little longer. 

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gonna need this to tick back a bit to make Friday relevant. We’re just getting mucked up by different shortwaves seemingly every run. There’s been some positive trends in the larger scale look but this may just ultimately end up being a case of too much interference. 

Still, I guess there’s enough changes each run to keep an eye on it a little longer. 

I don’t know man. We’ve seen incremental improvements since 12z yesterday each run. I will be shocked if we don’t see accumulating snow from this. I think some folks(in the Ray camp) are thinking snow means blockbuster. For me.. a couple inches is all I’m focused on and I think the chance is there.. for a good amount more .

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4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

So basically, Is it 0z tonight when everything is sampled? I'm going to 12z tomorrow but i'd have to go back and see what Legro had said this morning.

The northern stream that dives in late doesn’t get sampled until 00z tomorrow night. It’s out in the gulf of Alaska until then. 

Our initial northern shortwave that kind of becomes the “middle” one comes onshore tonight. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The northern stream that dives in late doesn’t get sampled until 00z tomorrow night. It’s out in the gulf of Alaska until then. 

Our initial northern shortwave that kind of becomes the “middle” one comes onshore tonight. 

Then i would suspect some more changes, The last storm we had last week that looked like snow and once sampled went to ottawa as we all recall, Was pretty far east and just kept coming west every cycle thereafter, Not saying this one will, But until everything is in the network, Cant totally write it off.

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Trying to make lemonade out of lemons...despite the first trough digging so far deep into Mexico (which eventually becomes the s/w for the coastal), the proceeding troughs behind it which "nudge" it OTS still have lots of variability amongst them so I would think a change in the track is still in the cards:

gefs-mean-sprd_namer_066_500_vort_ht.gif

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2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

For the 3rd time.... This trof is full of sh*t it ain't Happening. Don't see how it's possible. It's like a 1 in 50 chance for a moderate snow storm. Too progressive. Too much mixed up in the flow

We get it.  You’re in a pissy mood.  If you have nothing to add, go somewhere else.

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3 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

For the 3rd time.... This trof is full of sh*t it ain't Happening. Don't see how it's possible. It's like a 1 in 50 chance for a moderate snow storm. Too progressive. Too much mixed up in the flow

To your point that screaming jet streak across the southeast doesn't help anyone but even if that jet streak weakens it's still very progressive flow which sucks.  Banking on those two troughs to work themselves out.

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

We get it.  You’re in a pissy mood.  If you have nothing to add, go somewhere else.

Whoa whoa whoa, I am not actually in a pissy mood at all Bob. I just don't see how this works at 5h.... Feel like a lot have been grasping at straws. A lot of tension in here, I'm honestly not being a di*I. 

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Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

Whoa whoa whoa, I am not actually in a pissy mood at all Bob. I just don't see how this works at 5h.... Feel like a lot have been grasping at straws. A lot of tension in here, I'm honestly not being a di*I. 

The ensembles never really came on board outside of one single run. Most were too widespread or the cluster was all over the place. Never had that tell tale west of mean look outside of a hiccup run or two. 

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