February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread

[John1122]

2 hours ago, LindseyKirkpatrick said:

Any thoughts on this advisory? 

Its generally for above 3500 feet. So most of us won't likely see more than a few flakes. 

[Daniel Boone]

Just had a heavy snow shower with visibility down to 1/8 mile and Temp. in upper 30's. Rh was 59% when began so, no mixing due to evap..  Flakes were dime to nickel size. You can bet huge flakes and near whiteout higher eles.

  

[Jed33]

An intense snow shower moving through here right now as well. It’s more of a graupel/ice chunk kinda snow but really cool. Even have a light dusting on house tops and grass. 

[Carvers Gap]

Would not surprise me to see the precip shut-off suddenly(at some point during the next couple of months...to BN precip for an extended amount time) with La Nina developing soon.  Sounds counter intuitive.  Starting to see some hints on modeling that precip in NE TN is going to be scaled back from what we have been used to.  I think middle areas and western areas of the forum still see quite a bit of rain.   That said, with high pressure building in along the coast we may dry out from the Apps to the coast over the next few weeks.  We will see if this actually happens as it would be a fairly big pattern change here in NE TN.  

[jaxjagman]

On 3/7/2020 at 4:37 PM, Carvers Gap said:

Would not surprise me to see the precip shut-off suddenly(at some point during the next couple of months...to BN precip for an extended amount time) with La Nina developing soon.  Sounds counter intuitive.  Starting to see some hints on modeling that precip in NE TN is going to be scaled back from what we have been used to.  I think middle areas and western areas of the forum still see quite a bit of rain.   That said, with high pressure building in along the coast we may dry out from the Apps to the coast over the next few weeks.  We will see if this actually happens as it would be a fairly big pattern change here in NE TN.  

In Oct the TNI was at -3.0,this is a record,the closest it's been to Oct was back into 2004 when it was -2.7.If i was to draw any analog year for winter,next year, id start with the 2005 winter just because the ENSO could very well match up with this being with 2004-2005,that would be  a starting point anyways

 

 

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/tni.long.data

 

[Carvers Gap]

On 3/7/2020 at 5:37 PM, Carvers Gap said:

Would not surprise me to see the precip shut-off suddenly(at some point during the next couple of months...to BN precip for an extended amount time) with La Nina developing soon.  Sounds counter intuitive.  Starting to see some hints on modeling that precip in NE TN is going to be scaled back from what we have been used to.  I think middle areas and western areas of the forum still see quite a bit of rain.   That said, with high pressure building in along the coast we may dry out from the Apps to the coast over the next few weeks.  We will see if this actually happens as it would be a fairly big pattern change here in NE TN.  

LOL.  Nope.

[Greyhound]

LOL.  Nope.

To paraphrase President Reagan’s speech about the Berlin Wall......”Mr. Carvers, shut down this thread!”


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[jaxjagman]

3 hours ago, Greyhound said:

To paraphrase President Reagan’s speech about the Berlin Wall......”Mr. Carvers, shut down this thread!”


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Or the old saying"The agony of defeat"

[Carvers Gap]

We had a rainy pattern several years ago like this...seemed like it was every day.  Then, over a one week time frame...it just stopped for months.  Seems like that was in the early 2000s.  The thing is about this forecasted La Nina...we will likely go from feast to famine in a hurry if it develops.  There are two patterns that I really just don't like:  El Nino winters and La Nina summers.  This year, we may manage a Nada(with Nino tendencies) and a La Nina summer.   If there has been a constant(minus that flash drought in NE TN last fall), it has been rain.  I don't have a time table on when this rainy pattern stops, but when it does I think it will be abrupt.  Jeff, I think has mentioned this as well.  Seems like in TN for as long as I can remember, wx patterns have at times made made very quick transitions to nearly the opposite pattern.   Excessive rain and drought are part of our climatology.   I tilled up some new garden space earlier this week.  I needed to add some amendments to the soil like cow manure and sand.  I told myself that I would get the next morning.  Hasn't stopped raining since.  I walked into a store in Johnson City last night(grocery and social distancing) and it felt like something I would expect in coastal Maine.  There was a fine mist blowing on about 15mph winds.   So yeah, my thoughts about a moderating pattern in NE TN are not going to verify.  LOL.  But hey, just part of it.  As Jax noted, the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat.  Very true words in the wx world.   While counter-intuitive, I fully expect to have to water my garden every day in July and August.