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March will flip. I think. I hope. 
I don’t care, like some of you, about longevity. As long as we can get a couple real storms I’ll be happy. No more front end messes or anafront riders- I want a real storm. Greenland blocking....Miller A....retrograde. the whole thing. Lol. What? Too much? I know...but March....come on. 

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Some lake effect potential behind the CF..

Cold air advection will continue Tuesday night as another cold front
crosses the region, reinforcing the cold air advection, this will
cause 850H temperatures to drop to the -12C to -15C range by
Wednesday morning. With the cold air advection and some synoptic
moisture still available, a lake response will begin downwind of the
lakes. As of right now, snow looks like it should be light through
Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning before additional cold
air advection and an approaching trough for later Wednesday.
Temperatures on Tuesday night will be in the low to mid 20s, with a
few locations east of Lake Ontario in the teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Wednesday through Thursday a broad longwave trough will become
established from the Great Lakes to New England. This will bring a
few days of below normal temperatures to our region, with Thursday
likely being the coldest day. General WNW flow aloft will combine
with increased lake instability to produce a few rounds of lake
effect snow showers east and southeast of the lakes. It remains too
early for any details, although the pattern would suggest a better
potential for accumulating lake snows southeast of Lake Ontario,
with a lesser potential off Lake Erie. The best setup appears to be
Wednesday night through Thursday morning, when an upstream
connection to Lake Huron may tie into the Lake Ontario band.

Lake effect snow showers will continue through Thursday night
southeast of the lakes. High pressure and the onset of warm
advection will then bring an end to the lake snows by Friday, with
the start of a warming trend and period of dry weather that will
likely continue into next weekend.

 

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Forecast here is for 2"-4" early tomorrow before the flip to agua..

Possible moderate accumulations south/SE of the lake wed night-Thursday..

Wednesday night the lake snows will again intensify, especially
across Lake Ontario where an upstream connection will return. A WNW
flow along the long axis of the Lake, increased surface convergence
and lake induced equilibrium levels rising towards 7-8K feet will
bring moderate lake snows along the shoreline of Monroe...and inland
across Wayne, Cayuga and southern Oswego. There are still some
uncertainties to the low level wind directions, but advisory level
snows will be possible south and southeast of Lake Ontario. We will
highlight this potential in the HWO.
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GEPS bringing back the SE ridge in early March. It’s been a bummer. Gonna take a while for me to drift away but I won’t miss this winter. 
I have one more ski trip in early March to your (Wolfie) neck of the woods: Snow Ridge. I hope they can maintain some pack. Staying at Brantingham Lake. They keep snow up there pretty well. 
The worst part, by far, was the models constantly promising better stuff in the long range only to watch it fall apart. It was exhausting and heart breaking. We haven’t had 70” in Rochester. We MAYBE nickel and dimed our way to mid 50’s. The rest is BS. 
I give it a D+ (a mega storm in March could get us into C+ range). gem-ens_z500a_us_65.png

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1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

GEPS bringing back the SE ridge in early March. It’s been a bummer. Gonna take a while for me to drift away but I won’t miss this winter. 
I have one more ski trip in early March to your (Wolfie) neck of the woods: Snow Ridge. I hope they can maintain some pack. Staying at Brantingham Lake. They keep snow up there pretty well. 
The worst part, by far, was the models constantly promising better stuff in the long range only to watch it fall apart. It was exhausting and heart breaking. We haven’t had 70” in Rochester. We MAYBE nickel and dimed our way to mid 50’s. The rest is BS. 
I give it a D+ (a mega storm in March could get us into C+ range). gem-ens_z500a_us_65.png

This reminds me of'11/'12 when the models similarly did the same thing...2 weeks out looked good only to never come to fruition...models are great with warmth and rain though...

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Just saw a post on reddit.

Comments:

I live in Stockholm and we only had snow for a few days in November

In my 20 years it will be the first year without any snow here on balkans

You really see the difference up here in Southern Finland. Typically Jan-Feb are the coldest months, but now we have barely had any snow. When it has snowed, it melts in a couple of days. I have never seen anything like this (40+) years.

I'm within the arctic circle and it's only -4 degrees centigrade outside. What the blazes is going on

Warmest Jan/Feb I remember in Italy. I was out in a t-shirt like 2 weeks ago, insane.

My 91 year old greatgrandma says that this is first winter in Zagreb She can remember without any snow. That is something slightly alarming coming from someone who has seen so many different years and seasons.

image.png.9dc3a72d7b702fdf297b6d664d60fb20.png

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15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Just saw a post on reddit.

Comments:

I live in Stockholm and we only had snow for a few days in November

In my 20 years it will be the first year without any snow here on balkans

You really see the difference up here in Southern Finland. Typically Jan-Feb are the coldest months, but now we have barely had any snow. When it has snowed, it melts in a couple of days. I have never seen anything like this (40+) years.

I'm within the arctic circle and it's only -4 degrees centigrade outside. What the blazes is going on

Warmest Jan/Feb I remember in Italy. I was out in a t-shirt like 2 weeks ago, insane.

My 91 year old greatgrandma says that this is first winter in Zagreb She can remember without any snow. That is something slightly alarming coming from someone who has seen so many different years and seasons.

image.png.9dc3a72d7b702fdf297b6d664d60fb20.png

Definitely something to be concerned about. Have to see if it's a trend, though. Europe saw some pretty intense cold snaps over the past decade (2012, 2013, 2017). If a winter like this occurs three years in a row, then we know that something is really up.  I find that nature is always searching for equilibrium, or balance. It will be interesting to see if, in 2021 or 2022, central and eastern Europe get an intense cold snap similar to 2006 to balance this out. Note how warm winters were in Alaska over the past decade only for them to see intense cold this year.

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2 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Definitely something to be concerned about. Have to see if it's a trend, though. Europe saw some pretty intense cold snaps over the past decade (2012, 2013, 2017). If a winter like this occurs three years in a row, then we know that something is really up.  I find that nature is always searching for equilibrium, or balance. It will be interesting to see if, in 2021 or 2022, central and eastern Europe get an intense cold snap similar to 2006 to balance this out. Note how warm winters were in Alaska over the past decade only for them to see intense cold this year.

Yeah I wasn't implying any global warming with that post even though its obviously occurring. Just goes to show what type of winter 2019-2020 has been. I can see it within a super nino, but in a neutral ENSO state its very odd to me. What caused the entire planet to be so warm this winter?

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9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah I wasn't implying any global warming with that post even though its obviously occurring. Just goes to show what type of winter 2019-2020 has been. I can see it within a super nino, but in a neutral ENSO state its very odd to me. What caused the entire planet to be so warm this winter?

Don Paul had an interesting article this weekend regarding this.

 

https://buffalonews.com/2020/02/14/valentines-day-deep-freeze-aside-its-been-a-very-odd-winter/?fbclid=IwAR3NNtz1zvAdrnEkfCUplovYX913QXoNY91XKt0I7yXzWfG1lbMJAOfqPqk

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5 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

That's a great article. So global warming would actually help weaken the PV and lead to more arctic intrusions in a normal winter? That's interesting.

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37 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Could be a decent event for freak/max and company come Wednesday night-thursday.. Obviously location this far out is tricky. 

snku_024h.us_ne (34).png

We probably won't see jack sh*t out of this but KBGM also mentioned the possibility in their AFD today.  We've actually had decent snow depth the last few weeks in spite of the general malaise of this winter.  Will be nice to get back to our steady diet of cutters. Upper midwest has to be well above average snowfall this season.

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6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Of course you guys will finally get a decent lake effect snow event...I am in Florida!!!!!

KBGM was spitballing 5-8" possibly. A bit surprised to see them even mention possible accumulation amounts for LES 2 days ahead of time.  Something to keep an eye on i suppose.

An area of 5-8 inches is possible from Baldwinsville through Syracuse over to Cazenovia. Snowfall rates may approach 1-2
inches per hour at times Wed night/Thur morning. Favorable lapse rates, lift and moisture within the DGZ along with limited
shear and a sufficiently mixed boundary layer will all contribute to lake effect snow overnight.
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7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

What is overachiever?

lol. Yeah, over achiever in Rochester too. Looks like precip cutoff May precede changeover. 

Certainly overachieving my expectations, which were based mainly on KBGM forecast of maybe an inch of wet snow then rain, from what little I looked at this one.

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