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February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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Today was yet another unseasonably mild day in an unseasonably mild February. Daily high temperatures included: Baltimore: 60°; Boston: 58°; Islip: 53°; New York City: 56°; Newark: 58°; Philadelphia: 56°; and, Washington, DC: 59°.

Tomorrow will likely see similar warmth in much of the region. Overall, the second half of February remains on track to be warmer than normal overall. Cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March. This latest round of cold will likely last several days before warmth returns.

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.38°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm ENSO conditions.

The SOI was +5.14 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +5.180. That surpassed the previous daily record of +3.926 from 1990.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 2, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity could briefly begin to increase late in the period. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the end of February.

On February 22, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.818 (RMM). The February 21-adjusted amplitude was 0.670.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 76% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.8°.

Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today was yet another unseasonably mild day in an unseasonably mild February. Daily high temperatures included: Baltimore: 60°; Boston: 58°; Islip: 53°; New York City: 56°; Newark: 58°; Philadelphia: 56°; and, Washington, DC: 59°.

Tomorrow will likely see similar warmth in much of the region. Overall, the second half of February remains on track to be warmer than normal overall. Cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March. This latest round of cold will likely last several days before warmth returns.

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.38°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm ENSO conditions.

The SOI was +5.14 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +5.180. That surpassed the previous daily record of +3.926 from 1990.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 2, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity could briefly begin to increase late in the period. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the end of February.

On February 22, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.818 (RMM). The February 21-adjusted amplitude was 0.670.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 76% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.8°.

Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

 

Any 8-ball ideas on how March could look for us snow-wise? Any chance of a 12"+ incher?

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The last 6 days of February are averaging 42.5degs., or about 5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +5.0[39.8].           February should end near +5.1[40.4].

41* here at 6am.        43* by 9am.        50* by Noon.

The first 11 days of March are averaging (06Z,GFS} 42.5degs., or about 3degs. AN.           All models are snow less and the EURO looks like it wants to hit 70 in 10 days.

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Black ice is possible across Suffolk with dense frog and temperatures below freezing.

MacArthur/ISP  FOG       31  31 100 CALM      30.06F VSB 1/4
Stony Brook      N/A     36  36 100 S5          N/A  WCI  32
Shirley        FAIR      32  30  92 CALM      30.08S FOG
Mt Sinai Harb    N/A    N/A N/A N/A S8          N/A
Westhampton    CLOUDY    21  20  96 CALM      30.09S
East Hampton   CLOUDY    25  24  96 CALM      30.08S FOG
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
516 AM EST Mon Feb 24 2020

NYZ078>081-241300-
Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-
Southeastern Suffolk-
516 AM EST Mon Feb 24 2020

Patchy dense fog has developed across portions of Suffolk County
early this morning. In addition to reduced visibilities, with
temperatures near or below freezing, black ice is also possible
this morning, especially on bridges and overpasses. Use caution on
the roads early this morning and leave plenty of distance between
cars, keeping in mind that any pavement that appears damp may be
icy. Fog should lift shortly after sunrise.

 

 

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After the top 2 warmest Februaries on record in 2017 and 2018, we are on track for another top 10 warmest finish. There have been 7 out of 11 warmer than normal Februaries since 2010.

.............EWR....NYC....LGA

2020.....+5.5...+5.0....+4.4...so far

2019....+1.4.....+0.9...+0.5

2018....+6.8....+6.7.....+7.1

2017....+7.0....+6.3.....+7.5

2016....+2.5....+2.4.....+3.1

2015....-12.0...-11.4....-11.1

2014....-4.7.....-3.7.....-4.0

2013....-0.5.....-1.4.....-0.8

2012....+5.9....+5.6....+6.1

2011....+1.8.....+0.7.....+1.2

2010....-1.4......-2.2......-1.5

 

 

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On 2/20/2020 at 12:15 PM, Brian5671 said:

LR forecasting is difficult at best.   Look at the super strong PV this year plus the warm water north of Australia-both were late breaking events that helped cause us to be warm and snowless.   Good luck seeing something like that more than a month out....

I think the Australia situation was one where people weren't paying attention or connecting the dots in retrospect.  I don't think a lot of people, at least here in the states anyway, look that closely at Australia to see whether the rainy season advancement was delayed or not.  Once it was clear that was going to happen and solar radiation was going to be much higher than usual at a time when the IOD was collapsing, in retrospect that was a big flag that we should have seen coming.  Even as someone who had a mild winter forecasted, I wasn't nearly warm enough and I think it's because I was too slow to the draw on recognizing that piece and wave train alteration accordingly.

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The Meteorological Winter  will end somewhere between +3.91 and +4.07 degrees.

The folly of LR Forecasting exposed:     If a  Top Ten Warmest and Top Ten Least Snowiest Winter does not give itself away ahead of time , why would a 1 or 2  +/- SD winter do so?        As a long as we keep using a bogus 30 year normal, just say AN T's when asked.      It is like playing craps and substituting loaded dice when it is your turn.

At any rate, the GFS has 9 out of the first 11 days of March at a high of at least 50.         Hope my sea breeze gives me the 80's when the City is in the 90's since I stopped at 52 today.

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This has to be one the biggest PDO reversals from December to February. The record ridge north of Hawaii and strong +EPO resulted in the big SST departure shift. One of the strongest La Niña-like patterns without out an official La Niña. This is what can happen with record SST’s from the date line to the Indian Ocean.
 

0AF60D3B-8CF1-49E0-B3D8-AB0B1C73752E.png.25e4e457a3097d4dfbab25f8fcdbb1ac.png

339E0BC3-EA3E-43CE-971E-772A7C2DB62F.png.235b59ffa745515375cb8b6b3f9fa7a0.png

F0446D42-6754-4AEB-8577-6CD2CAB109FF.gif.cff7d24478517a1b1ad87029766eb9c0.gif

 

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Morning thoughts...

1. Another mild day is in store. At 10 am, temperatures  included: Allentown: 45°; Baltimore: 47°; Boston: 52°; Bridgeport: 44°; Danbury: 49°; Islip: 45°; New York City: 50°; Newark: 49°; Philadelphia: 45°; Poughkeepsie: 47°; Washington, DC: 46°; Westhampton: 49°; and, White Plains: 44°. Temperatures should top out well in the 50s, even in areas that saw a thick frost and minimum temperatures in the lower and middle 20s this morning.

2. The pattern remains hostile for moderate (4" or greater) or significant (6" or greater) snowstorms in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

3. January-February 2020 is on track to become 7th January-February case with a mean temperature of 39.0° or above in New York City and the 11th such case for Philadelphia. At Boston, 2020 is likely to surpass January-February 2002 as the warmest January-February period on record. Currently, Boston is on track for a two-month mean temperature of 37.5°-37.7°. The existing January-February record is 36.5°, which was established in January-February 2002.

4. The CFSv2 has continued its evolution toward a warmer March forecast in the East.

CFSv202242020.jpg

 

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6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

1. Another mild day is in store. At 10 am, temperatures  included: Allentown: 45°; Baltimore: 47°; Boston: 52°; Bridgeport: 44°; Danbury: 49°; Islip: 45°; New York City: 50°; Newark: 49°; Philadelphia: 45°; Poughkeepsie: 47°; Washington, DC: 46°; Westhampton: 49°; and, White Plains: 44°. Temperatures should top out well in the 50s, even in areas that saw a thick frost and minimum temperatures in the lower and middle 20s this morning.

2. The pattern remains hostile for moderate (4" or greater) or significant (6" or greater) snowstorms in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

3. January-February 2020 is on track to become 7th January-February case with a mean temperature of 39.0° or above in New York City and the 11th such case for Philadelphia. At Boston, 2020 is likely to surpass January-February 2002 as the warmest January-February period on record. Currently, Boston is on track for a two-month mean temperature of 37.5°-37.7°. The existing January-February record is 36.5°, which was established in January-February 2002.

4. The CFSv2 has continued its evolution toward a warmer March forecast in the East.

CFSv202242020.jpg

 

I think it is safe to call this 'winter' dead. The ecological world is waking back up in a big way from a restless slumber this year. This could actually reverse the trend of the past few years where we had a delayed leaf out to one that is almost epically early if the current trends keep up. 

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56 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I think it is safe to call this 'winter' dead. The ecological world is waking back up in a big way from a restless slumber this year. This could actually reverse the trend of the past few years where we had a delayed leaf out to one that is almost epically early if the current trends keep up. 

1989-90 had a very warm Jan/Feb/March-I remember lawns being cut in late March that year....this could be another spring like that one

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1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

I think it is safe to call this 'winter' dead. The ecological world is waking back up in a big way from a restless slumber this year. This could actually reverse the trend of the past few years where we had a delayed leaf out to one that is almost epically early if the current trends keep up. 

I put in 400 daffodil bulbs last fall and they are way up. I’m worried about the cool down zapping any potential blooms. I would think we see everything at least a month ahead this year over the last several 

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2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I put in 400 daffodil bulbs last fall and they are way up. I’m worried about the cool down zapping any potential blooms. I would think we see everything at least a month ahead this year over the last several 

I don't know about a month. March of 2012 was extremely warm and leafout was about 2 to 3 weeks early. 

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18 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I put in 400 daffodil bulbs last fall and they are way up. I’m worried about the cool down zapping any potential blooms. I would think we see everything at least a month ahead this year over the last several 

My plants started coming up more than a month ago. 

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22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I don't know about a month. March of 2012 was extremely warm and leafout was about 2 to 3 weeks early. 

2012 started out exceptionally dry as well though, likely slowing down leaf out. March 2012 only had 0.96 inch in the bucket at the end when normal is 4.36. February likewise 1.37 inches when 3.09 inches is normal.

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