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February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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4 hours ago, Rjay said:

Several times

Actually Rjay, if Dr. Dews and Anthony have the same laugh reaction to a post we have to admit, at least indirectly that the poster in question did accomplish something. If S19 joins with the same reaction, I’ll put in a plea to WXWATCHER007  for clemency.  As always ....

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Milder air returned to the region after a cool start. At Central Park, the temperature topped out at 50° during the late afternoon. Temperatures will be even warmer tomorrow. As a result, the second half of February remains on track to be warmer than normal overall. Cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March. This latest round of cold will likely last several days before warmth returns.

Winter 2019-2020 is the 12th winter on record that has seen New York City receive less than 6" seasonal snowfall through February 22. Mean total snowfall for the 11 prior cases was 8.2" vs. the historic mean figure of 28.8". In addition, 64% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 6% of winters in the historic record. 100% of such winters wound up with less than 20" seasonal snowfall vs. 31% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1928-29 with 13.8" seasonal snowfall.

Winter 2019-2020 is the 6th winter on record that has seen Philadelphia receive less than 2" seasonal snowfall through February 22. Mean total snowfall for the 6 prior cases was 2.9" vs. the historic mean figure of 22.6". In addition, 100% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 16% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1889-90 with 7.4" seasonal snowfall.

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.38°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm ENSO conditions.

The SOI was +6.10 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +6.187. That surpassed the previous daily record of +4.590 from 2008.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 1, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity could briefly begin to increase late in the period. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the end of February.

On February 21, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.670 (RMM). The February 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.082.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 75% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.8°.

Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

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The last 7 days of February are averaging 42.5degs., or about 5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +4.8[39.4].        February should end at  +4.9[40.2].

39* here at 6am.      44* by 10am.         49* by 1pm.        50* at 1:30pm.       52* at 2pm.      Due to sea breeze, topped out at 53* at 2:30pm.        45* by 10pm.

The first 10 days of March are averaging 41degs., or about 2 to 3 degrees AN, but model(06Z,GFS) is snow less.

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This has been the driest start to the year since 2012 for NYC and surrounding stations. My last rain event with over 1.00” was back on January 25th.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Total Precipitation Jan 1 to Feb 23
Missing Count
2020-02-23 3.93 1
2019-02-23 6.11 0
2018-02-23 7.20 0
2017-02-23 6.77 0
2016-02-23 7.52 0
2015-02-23 7.27 0
2014-02-23 8.24 0
2013-02-23 5.30 0
2012-02-23 3.63 0
2011-02-23 6.59 0
2010-02-23 5.17 0

5883F1D3-A68C-40BE-959B-32F601713CEC.thumb.png.554e98cef196907500b7d3f50ef56d5e.png

 

 

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Morning thoughts...

1. Record heat covers parts of northern Africa. Essaouira, Morocco hit a February record high temperature of 90°.

2. Temperatures will likely soar into the middle and even upper 50s in the Middle Atlantic region today and tomorrow. Washington, DC could see the temperature approach or reach 60°.

3. The powerful polar vortex remains strong.

4. The base case remains a warmer than normal March and Spring in the region.

The CFSv2 is now well underway in evolving toward what could be a warmer March outlook for the region.

CFSv02232020z.jpg

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3 hours ago, dWave said:

39 here, but good radiational cooling overnight elsewhere.

6am:

NYC 40, JFK 30, Teterboro 26, White Plains 27, Farmingdale 27, Morristown 19, Islip 26. 

23 in Muttontown and 24 in Syosset this morning both occurring around 6:30 am.  Currently 48 now and rising under sunny skies. 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

This has been the driest start to the year since 2012 for NYC and surrounding stations. My last rain event with over 1.00” was back on January 25th.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Total Precipitation Jan 1 to Feb 23
Missing Count
2020-02-23 3.93 1
2019-02-23 6.11 0
2018-02-23 7.20 0
2017-02-23 6.77 0
2016-02-23 7.52 0
2015-02-23 7.27 0
2014-02-23 8.24 0
2013-02-23 5.30 0
2012-02-23 3.63 0
2011-02-23 6.59 0
2010-02-23 5.17 0

5883F1D3-A68C-40BE-959B-32F601713CEC.thumb.png.554e98cef196907500b7d3f50ef56d5e.png

 

 

4.32" here after a record wet Dec. with 8.18".

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

1. Record heat covers parts of northern Africa. Essaouira, Morocco hit a February record high temperature of 90°.

2. Temperatures will likely soar into the middle and even upper 50s in the Middle Atlantic region today and tomorrow. Washington, DC could see the temperature approach or reach 60°.

3. The powerful polar vortex remains strong.

4. The base case remains a warmer than normal March and Spring in the region.

The CFSv2 is now well underway in evolving toward what could be a warmer March outlook for the region.

CFSv02232020z.jpg

Yes and the Polar Vortex has been giving extreme cold where they are suppose to get it, the far north. The Bering Sea ice extent has actually reached the 1981-2010 norm. The ice extent  in the Arctic is more than it has been in years. Don't know how long it will last but at least it has put a little dent in the ice melting.

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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Absolutely gorgeous outside. Feels like a mid April day.

Except for the bone dry air. The very low humidity still leave a hint of winter feel. Dewpoint in single digits will do that. A very nice day nonetheless. More signs of spring poping up today too. 

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5 hours ago, lee59 said:

24 at my house this morning. Meanwhile Manhattan only dropped to 39.

was down to 22 here and 18 the night before-at least that will keep trees dormant and bugs at bay.

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Absolutely gorgeous outside. Feels like a mid April day.

Has a feel of Feb 2002 and Feb 2012-days of blue skies and well above normal temps-hopefully the cloudy damp pattern is behind us.

17 minutes ago, tmagan said:

Not unheard of in April to have relative humidity in Central Park under 10%.

That's when you tend to see all the red flag warnings-lots of dry brush, winds and very low humidity.

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