Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
 Share

Recommended Posts

The next 8 days are averaging 41.5degs., or about 5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +6.1[40.5].      February should be  near +5.5[40.7] by the 28th.     The last 10 days of February are averaging (0Z,GFS) 38.5degs., so February should end near +4.5[39.8].   The first 6 days of March were a toasty 46degs.!    Only the CMC has some snow near the 27th.

30* here at 6am.       33* by 9am.      35* by Noon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

It's been a while since we've had a widespread 100+ degree day, a la 7/6/10 or 7/22/11. 

Last July was really close. 7-21-19 set or tied multiple record high temperatures at 99 degrees. Since the dew points were so high, the heat indices were similar to 7-22-11. The month also finished top 10 warmest around +3. JFK came within 1 degree of the all-time highest  heat index at 114 degrees.

AF80A901-26A1-4956-B125-8DF6E8772AD0.thumb.png.03b4f3852492452b7dfe0fbbf0bbb0e2.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is the same winter snowfall pattern as last year. It’s 9th lowest in snowfall and last winter finished 7th. Identical storm track pattern of cutter, hugger, and southern stream suppressed snowstorms.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Season
Total Snowfall
Missing Count
1 1997-1998 0.5 0
2 1918-1919 1.1 0
3 1972-1973 2.6 0
4 1931-1932 2.7 0
5 1991-1992 3.2 0
6 2001-2002 3.5 0
7 2018-2019 3.7 0
8 2011-2012 4.5 0
9 2019-2020 4.8 10
10 1989-1990 5.0 0
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is the same winter snowfall pattern as last year. It’s 9th lowest in snowfall and last winter finished 7th. Identical storm track pattern of cutter, hugger, and southern stream suppressed snowstorms.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Season
Total Snowfall
Missing Count
1 1997-1998 0.5 0
2 1918-1919 1.1 0
3 1972-1973 2.6 0
4 1931-1932 2.7 0
5 1991-1992 3.2 0
6 2001-2002 3.5 0
7 2018-2019 3.7 0
8 2011-2012 4.5 0
9 2019-2020 4.8 10
10 1989-1990 5.0 0

How did 1997-1998 finish?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 8pm. Low around 30. North wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible                                https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=249&y=76&site=mhx&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=249&map_y=76#.Xk6HAyN_OHs :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

How did 1997-1998 finish?

97-98 finished the whole snowfall season 7th lowest. They had the benefit of a -AO for DJFM that finally clicked for them on 3-22 with 5.0”. But this year we continue with the record SPV and +AO. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30
Missing Count
1 1973-04-30 2.8 0
2 2002-04-30 3.5 0
3 1919-04-30 3.8 0
4 2020-04-30 4.8 72
5 1901-04-30 5.1 2
6 1932-04-30 5.3 0
7 1998-04-30 5.5 0
8 2012-04-30 7.4 0
9 1989-04-30 8.1 0
- 1878-04-30 8.1 0
10 1951-04-30 9.3 0
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is the same winter snowfall pattern as last year. It’s 9th lowest in snowfall and last winter finished 7th. Identical storm track pattern of cutter, hugger, and southern stream suppressed snowstorms.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Season
Total Snowfall
Missing Count
1 1997-1998 0.5 0
2 1918-1919 1.1 0
3 1972-1973 2.6 0
4 1931-1932 2.7 0
5 1991-1992 3.2 0
6 2001-2002 3.5 0
7 2018-2019 3.7 0
8 2011-2012 4.5 0
9 2019-2020 4.8 10
10 1989-1990 5.0 0

Only difference was we were colder last winter because the Pv wasn’t as strong. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Only difference was we were colder last winter because the Pv wasn’t as strong. 

That just goes to show how important the storm track and teleconnections are for snow here. Both winters featured that strong ridge stuck just north of Hawaii. So we had similar DJF snowfall even though this winter was 3 degrees warmer.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It happens. We have been living a charmed life in the snow department since 2010. Let’s just hope this isn’t the start of another string of ratters.

One model (can't remember which) is showing a strong Nina starting this fall-that would not be a good development.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Only difference was we were colder last winter because the Pv wasn’t as strong. 

What's interesting here is the PV-could anyone have predicted its strength last fall?   Wildcards like that can sink a forecast.   On the flip side, 2010-11 was a strong Nina and many forecasts were not great-yet we had one of the snowiest 40 days in history due to some well timed blocking.    

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It happens. We have been living a charmed life in the snow department since 2010. Let’s just hope this isn’t the start of another string of ratters.

This Niña-like background state with a struggling El Niño hasn’t worked for snowfall the last two winters. The ridge just stays stuck north of Hawaii leading to the cutter, hugger, and suppressed southern stream storm tracks. We may need a stronger El Niño or official La Niña in coming winters to boost our snowfall potential again. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

One model (can't remember which) is showing a strong Nina starting this fall-that would not be a good development.

If the last two winters have taught us anything it’s that long range is a wild card still. Who really knows what’s going to happen next winter. I think the benefit of a strong Niña would help cool the ocean waters in the warm phases of the mjo. Even if it means a bad winter 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This Niña-like background state with a struggling El Niño hasn’t worked for snowfall the last two winters. The ridge just stays stuck north of Hawaii leading to the cutter, hugger, and suppressed southern stream storm tracks. We may need a stronger El Niño or official La Niña in coming winters to boost our snowfall potential again. 

 

This winter has continued the theme of "stagnancy" - that is, absent novel forcing mechanisms, we maintain a similar set of indicators, and thus, z500 regimes tend to repeat. For example, the SSTA profile in the Atlantic has been quite similar since 2017, which has been reinforcing the humid/warm summer signal in the East. This winter featured many of the same indicators as 2018-19, and as a result, the mean storm track followed suit.

These snowfall departures with respect to normal have a base period of 2008-2018, but still impart the general picture of snowfall anomalies to date [h/t Eric Snodgrass].

Underneath that image is my snowfall anomaly outlook for this winter. The season is not over yet, but I'm quite content to see the anomalies are highly congruous with my pre-season expectations. Upper-Mid-west and northern Maine jackpots.

 

Image

 

 

image.thumb.png.f8e17e1724a8ec74914b2b5fecd56d18.png

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

This winter has continued the theme of "stagnancy" - that is, absent novel forcing mechanisms, we maintain a similar set of indicators, and thus, z500 regimes tend to repeat. For example, the SSTA profile in the Atlantic has been quite similar since 2017, which has been reinforcing the humid/warm summer signal in the East. This winter featured many of the same indicators as 2018-19, and as a result, the mean storm track followed suit.

These snowfall departures with respect to normal have a base period of 2008-2018, but still impart the general picture of snowfall anomalies to date [h/t Eric Snodgrass].

Underneath that image is my snowfall anomaly outlook for this winter. The season is not over yet, but I'm quite content to see the anomalies are highly congruous with my pre-season expectations. Upper-Mid-west and northern Maine jackpots.

 

Image

 

 

image.thumb.png.f8e17e1724a8ec74914b2b5fecd56d18.png

 

GREAT FORECAST.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

What's interesting here is the PV-could anyone have predicted its strength last fall?   Wildcards like that can sink a forecast.   On the flip side, 2010-11 was a strong Nina and many forecasts were not great-yet we had one of the snowiest 40 days in history due to some well timed blocking.    

Most of the seasonal models had a strong +NAO +AO for the winter from the fall forecasts. Some research points to the record +IOD late in the fall into early winter. While several  seasonal models had the strong ridge north of Hawaii, they all underestimated the strength of the +EPO.  

258365F3-EB6F-40C1-A67E-BEC8F77AC311.png.c1ba0ee337dd5cae1268981123b8f6e9.png


 


 

 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

This winter has continued the theme of "stagnancy" - that is, absent novel forcing mechanisms, we maintain a similar set of indicators, and thus, z500 regimes tend to repeat. For example, the SSTA profile in the Atlantic has been quite similar since 2017, which has been reinforcing the humid/warm summer signal in the East. This winter featured many of the same indicators as 2018-19, and as a result, the mean storm track followed suit.

These snowfall departures with respect to normal have a base period of 2008-2018, but still impart the general picture of snowfall anomalies to date [h/t Eric Snodgrass].

Underneath that image is my snowfall anomaly outlook for this winter. The season is not over yet, but I'm quite content to see the anomalies are highly congruous with my pre-season expectations. Upper-Mid-west and northern Maine jackpots.

 

Image

 

 

image.thumb.png.f8e17e1724a8ec74914b2b5fecd56d18.png

Incredible Tom, well done!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This Niña-like background state with a struggling El Niño hasn’t worked for snowfall the last two winters. The ridge just stays stuck north of Hawaii leading to the cutter, hugger, and suppressed southern stream storm tracks. We may need a stronger El Niño or official La Niña in coming winters to boost our snowfall potential again. 

Agree. A weak enso state has not worked well for us the last two years. I believe this year will go down as a nada. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Agree. A weak enso state has not worked well for us the last two years. I believe this year will go down as a nada. 

We will find out next fall and winter whether this was another two year stuck pattern like 2009-2011, 2013-2015 and 2016-2018. Two year stuck winter patterns have been the maximum since 2010. Hopefully, this isn’t a throwback to the longer snow droughts of the late 1990’s  and early 2000’s. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...