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February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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Today is 19th day to reach 50 or warmer at Newark since December 22nd. It’s the 4th highest number of days for the time period. Feels like an early spring day out there.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 50 Dec 22 to Feb 17
Missing Count
1 2006-02-17 22 0
2 2012-02-17 21 0
- 1990-02-17 21 0
- 1932-02-17 21 0
3 1991-02-17 20 0
- 1950-02-17 20 0
4 1972-02-17 19 0
- 1933-02-17 19 0
  2020-02-17 19 0

 

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21 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The landscape at the New York Botanical Garden suggests that spring is rapidly gaining a foothold on account of the almost unrelenting mildness of winter 2019-2020, including today’s 50° day. Crocuses are now blooming in abundance. Japanese Apricot is breaking into blossom. Witch Hazel is in full bloom.

NYBG02172020-10.jpg

NYBG02172020-6.jpg

NYBG02172020-4.jpg

NYBG02172020-5.jpg

NYBG02172020-8.jpg

Don, does the witch hazel bloom have a scent?  Not sure if you get close enough when capturing the images. The photo pinged a memory from my younger years. As always .....

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Just now, donsutherland1 said:

Only when you get really close.

Thank you. I spent two winters at the end of the sixties in Clarksville Ark. Witch hazel just blooming was cut and I remember a specific but not unpleasant aroma. Weatherpruf was correct about the southern winter. I remember one snow event, around this time in the cold season.Spring flowers in full sway. What fascinated me was the Ozarks to the north. After a particularly cold winter rain they were often dressed in white. I missed the Lindsey storm when I was down there. Many memories many years ago. As always ....

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39 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

It’s never happened in 151 years of records so not likely. With the warming climate though who knows, nothing would shock me. 

Wall to Wall, start to finish rain and 30s would be the worst.  This forum would be unbearable.  At least in this winter, we have had a lot of pleasant, dry days even if it has been a stinker as far as snow, especially at the coast. 

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1 hour ago, rclab said:

Thank you. I spent two winters at the end of the sixties in Clarksville Ark. Witch hazel just blooming was cut and I remember a specific but not unpleasant aroma. Weatherpruf was correct about the southern winter. I remember one snow event, around this time in the cold season.Spring flowers in full sway. What fascinated me was the Ozarks to the north. After a particularly cold winter rain they were often dressed in white. I missed the Lindsey storm when I was down there. Many memories many years ago. As always ....

heard something interesting today on a discussion about people in Mississippi back in the day making "snow ice cream" which means they must've have had some snow at times back when....

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Unseasonably mild air continues to cover the region. Daily high temperatures included:

Baltimore: 55°; Boston: 49°; Harrisburg: 53°; Islip: 50°; New York City: 51°; Newark: 53°; Philadelphia: 52°; and, Washington, DC: 56°.

Another short period of cold is likely later this week. Nevertheless, the second half of February will likely be warmer than normal overall. Cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March, but its magnitude and duration are uncertain at present.

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through at least the first 24 days of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

A snowfall could affect parts of North Carolina later in the week. Parts of eastern North Carolina have the potential to see 1"-3" snow with a few locally higher amounts. Wilmington is currently in line for close an inch using a multi model blend.

Earlier today, in part due to the powerful north Atlantic storm that has contributed to the very strongly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), widespread record warmth prevailed in Europe. Daily records included:

Cervia, Italy: 64°; Innsbruck: 59°; Norrkoping, Sweden: 46°; Osijek, Croatia: 63°; Papa, Hungary: 61°; Roenne, Denmark: 46°; St. Petersburg: 45°; Stockholm: 46°; Vilnius: 50°; and, Warsaw: 59°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.38°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm ENSO conditions.

The SOI was -18.06 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.743. That surpassed the previous daily record of +3.000 from 1959.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 25, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the third week of February.

On February 16, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.840 (RMM). The February 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.780.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 64% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.5°.

Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region.

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The next 8 days are averaging 40degs., or 4.5degs. AN.

Month to date is +6.1[40.4].        Should be +5.5[40.3] by the 26th.

42* here at 6am.       47* by 10am.        50* by Noon.

The last 12 days of February are averaging 40degs., so February should end near +5.0[40.3]

All models are pitching a snow shutout.

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Morning thoughts...

1. Record warmth again prevails in parts of Europe. New records are most numerous in Finland and Russia.

2. Parts of North Carolina, especially eastern North Carolina, remain in line for accumulating snow in the Thursday-Friday timeframe. Eastern North Carolina will likely see the highest amounts with an area of 1"-3" locally higher amounts according a model blend. About one-third of EPS members show 1" or more for Wilmington.

3. The implied probability of less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City continues to increase based on historic data for cases where New York City had received less than 6" seasonal snowfall through February 18.

4. February 2020 remains on track to finish among the 10 warmest such months in numerous locations in the Middle Atlantic region even as colder air could arrive near the end of the month.

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NYC moves into 4th place for most winter days with the low temperature remaining  above freezing. Today was the 49th day. 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Season
Number of Days Min Temperature > 32 
Missing Count
1 2011-2012 58 0
- 1997-1998 58 0
2 2016-2017 55 0
- 2015-2016 55 0
- 2001-2002 55 0
3 1931-1932 53 0
4 1998-1999 49 0
  2019-2020 49 11
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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

1. Record warmth again prevails in parts of Europe. New records are most numerous in Finland and Russia.

2. Parts of North Carolina, especially eastern North Carolina, remain in line for accumulating snow in the Thursday-Friday timeframe. Eastern North Carolina will likely see the highest amounts with an area of 1"-3" locally higher amounts according a model blend. About one-third of EPS members show 1" or more for Wilmington.

3. The implied probability of less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City continues to increase based on historic data for cases where New York City had received less than 6" seasonal snowfall through February 18.

4. February 2020 remains on track to finish among the 10 warmest such months in numerous locations in the Middle Atlantic region even as colder air could arrive near the end of the month.

I love your posts and read them daily, but I can never get use to the references with NYC included in the Mid Atlantic region. Geographically it just seems wrong, although I get the text book reference for those that use New England as the northeast and that's that, and somehow squeeze NY state into the Mid Atlantic where geographically and climate wise it clearly doesn't belong..

In my world Southern PA and southern NJ down through W.VA and Virginia is the Mid Atlantic, if your just going by geography you could even include North Carolina in there too.

If you strictly divided the east coast into three areas by latitude without regard to state borders the southeast would start at the southern tip of Florida 25° N, excluding the Keys, and end at the eastern extreme of Maine that touches the Atlantic 45° N. If you want to include the northern extent of Maine make it 47°N.

Dividing into three equal shares using latitude, the southeast would run from south Florida to southern S.Carolina 32.4°N. The Mid Atlantic would run form a little south of Charleston SC to a little north of Atlantic City NJ 39.7° N and the northeast from there to the northern extreme of Maine not touching the Atlantic 47°N.

No criticism intended here, just bored from the prolonged pattern we are mired in and just using the spare time to bring up something other than weather.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

NYC moves into 4th place for most winter days with the low temperature remaining  above freezing. Today was the 49th day. 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Season
Number of Days Min Temperature > 32 
Missing Count
1 2011-2012 58 0
- 1997-1998 58 0
2 2016-2017 55 0
- 2015-2016 55 0
- 2001-2002 55 0
3 1931-1932 53 0
4 1998-1999 49 0
  2019-2020 49 11

we're right up there with some of the greatest clunkers of all time...

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17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

we're right up there with some of the greatest clunkers of all time...

Just a remarkable shift to winter warmth since December 2015. Your area is also in 4th place. 3 top 4 finishes in 5 winters is as extreme as it gets.
 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Season
Number of Days Min Temperature > 32 
Missing Count
1 2015-2016 44 0
2 2016-2017 40 0
3 2011-2012 38 0
- 2001-2002 38 0
4 2019-2020 36 11
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42 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I love your posts and read them daily, but I can never get use to the references with NYC included in the Mid Atlantic region. Geographically it just seems wrong, although I get the text book reference for those that use New England as the northeast and that's that, and somehow squeeze NY state into the Mid Atlantic where geographically and climate wise it clearly doesn't belong..

In my world Southern PA and southern NJ down through W.VA and Virginia is the Mid Atlantic, if your just going by geography you could even include North Carolina in there too.

If you strictly divided the east coast into three areas by latitude without regard to state borders the southeast would start at the southern tip of Florida 25° N, excluding the Keys, and end at the eastern extreme of Maine that touches the Atlantic 45° N. If you want to include the northern extent of Maine make it 47°N.

Dividing into three equal shares using latitude, the southeast would run from south Florida to southern S.Carolina 32.4°N. The Mid Atlantic would run form a little south of Charleston SC to a little north of Atlantic City NJ 39.7° N and the northeast from there to the northern extreme of Maine not touching the Atlantic 47°N.

No criticism intended here, just bored from the prolonged pattern we are mired in and just using the spare time to bring up something other than weather.

I understand and appreciate the difficulty as you’ve described it. I, however, use a device used in the NE forum to make it simpler, albeit a little more complex. I think of our metro area as the NMA . A dubious honor in my mind. On many occasions during severe cold we are on the northern edge of a suppressed system looking south, longingly or sitting south of the rain/snow line shivering wet while looking north. Dr. Dews found your fine post funny only for the fact that you didn’t end the southeast latitude at 47 north. As always ....

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20 hours ago, White Gorilla said:

Can't get any worse?  I hope mother nature doesn't drink beer. 

Lol. It appears she sings though.

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I love your posts and read them daily, but I can never get use to the references with NYC included in the Mid Atlantic region. Geographically it just seems wrong, although I get the text book reference for those that use New England as the northeast and that's that, and somehow squeeze NY state into the Mid Atlantic where geographically and climate wise it clearly doesn't belong..

In my world Southern PA and southern NJ down through W.VA and Virginia is the Mid Atlantic, if your just going by geography you could even include North Carolina in there too.

If you strictly divided the east coast into three areas by latitude without regard to state borders the southeast would start at the southern tip of Florida 25° N, excluding the Keys, and end at the eastern extreme of Maine that touches the Atlantic 45° N. If you want to include the northern extent of Maine make it 47°N.

Dividing into three equal shares using latitude, the southeast would run from south Florida to southern S.Carolina 32.4°N. The Mid Atlantic would run form a little south of Charleston SC to a little north of Atlantic City NJ 39.7° N and the northeast from there to the northern extreme of Maine not touching the Atlantic 47°N.

No criticism intended here, just bored from the prolonged pattern we are mired in and just using the spare time to bring up something other than weather.

 

22 minutes ago, rclab said:

I understand and appreciate the difficulty as you’ve described it. I, however, use a device used in the NE forum to make it simpler, albeit a little more complex. I think of our metro area as the NMA . A dubious honor in my mind. On many occasions during severe cold we are on the northern edge of a suppressed system looking south, longingly or sitting south of the rain/snow line shivering wet while looking north. Dr. Dews found your fine post funny only for the fact that you didn’t end the southeast latitude at 47 north. As always ....

I use I70 to delineates SE from Mid Atlantic and it's works most of the time. Sorta. Up here it's like there's a zone between I78 and 84 that could be either MA or NE. Unfortunately that puts the bulk of the population in a tough spot. If you're not a snow person head for Philly (sorry folks :lmao: )  and if you want to be within sight distance of real winter head for Kingston or Pittsfield.

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37 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like the mjo wil go weakly into 8-1-2-3 on the new roundy maps. This will be bias cold and lines up well with the ensembles. I would think the best chance at snow will be towards the first weekend of March. 

 

The bar is set pretty low this year. All NYC needs is 2.6 inches of snow in March to make it the snowiest month of the season. It would be the 5th time since 14-15 if NYC can pull it off. 
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3
2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8
2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2
2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9
2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5
2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T M M 4.8
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23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The bar is set pretty low this year. All NYC needs is 2.6 inches of snow in March to make it the snowiest month of the season. It would be the 5th time since 14-15 if NYC can pull it off. 
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3
2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8
2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2
2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9
2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5
2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T M M 4.8

Very low. Great stat as always @bluewave. I read a tweet on when the Ao is this high our biggest snowfall comes in March. This doesn’t mean I’m calling for a big event but 2.6 is a low bar.

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1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I love your posts and read them daily, but I can never get use to the references with NYC included in the Mid Atlantic region. Geographically it just seems wrong, although I get the text book reference for those that use New England as the northeast and that's that, and somehow squeeze NY state into the Mid Atlantic where geographically and climate wise it clearly doesn't belong..

In my world Southern PA and southern NJ down through W.VA and Virginia is the Mid Atlantic, if your just going by geography you could even include North Carolina in there too.

If you strictly divided the east coast into three areas by latitude without regard to state borders the southeast would start at the southern tip of Florida 25° N, excluding the Keys, and end at the eastern extreme of Maine that touches the Atlantic 45° N. If you want to include the northern extent of Maine make it 47°N.

Dividing into three equal shares using latitude, the southeast would run from south Florida to southern S.Carolina 32.4°N. The Mid Atlantic would run form a little south of Charleston SC to a little north of Atlantic City NJ 39.7° N and the northeast from there to the northern extreme of Maine not touching the Atlantic 47°N.

No criticism intended here, just bored from the prolonged pattern we are mired in and just using the spare time to bring up something other than weather.

Thanks for the kind words and commentary. Also, like you, I do not like the current pattern. It is greatly disappointing to see the absence of cold and snow and the growing likelihood that this will be among the least snowy winters (e.g., <10" at Central Park).

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2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I love your posts and read them daily, but I can never get use to the references with NYC included in the Mid Atlantic region. Geographically it just seems wrong, although I get the text book reference for those that use New England as the northeast and that's that, and somehow squeeze NY state into the Mid Atlantic where geographically and climate wise it clearly doesn't belong..

In my world Southern PA and southern NJ down through W.VA and Virginia is the Mid Atlantic, if your just going by geography you could even include North Carolina in there too.

If you strictly divided the east coast into three areas by latitude without regard to state borders the southeast would start at the southern tip of Florida 25° N, excluding the Keys, and end at the eastern extreme of Maine that touches the Atlantic 45° N. If you want to include the northern extent of Maine make it 47°N.

Dividing into three equal shares using latitude, the southeast would run from south Florida to southern S.Carolina 32.4°N. The Mid Atlantic would run form a little south of Charleston SC to a little north of Atlantic City NJ 39.7° N and the northeast from there to the northern extreme of Maine not touching the Atlantic 47°N.

No criticism intended here, just bored from the prolonged pattern we are mired in and just using the spare time to bring up something other than weather.

“Mid-Atlantic” originally meant the middle of the entire East Coast (including Canada), it only included NY, NJ, PA, and DE, this is still the case under some definitions. Basically not New England, but not the South either. MD, DC, and VA were originally part of the South (politically), but are now generally regarded as part of the Mid-Atlantic, for obvious reasons.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The bar is set pretty low this year. All NYC needs is 2.6 inches of snow in March to make it the snowiest month of the season. It would be the 5th time since 14-15 if NYC can pull it off. 
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3
2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8
2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2
2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9
2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5
2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T M M 4.8

I've cited the same stat several times recently, any time someone discards March as a spring month.

It is nice to see the actual monthly totals in the  four recent years it has happened. As your chart above plainly shows 4 of the 5 last March did not win out with paltry totals during sub standard winters like this one. We're basically talking double digit totals each March, the exception being 2017 which was close with 9.7 inches. Five of Six seems more than plausible at this point.

I'm also interested this March to see if it can end up being colder again than February for the third time in four years. March has only been colder than February 7 times in 151 years of record keeping in NYC and three times in four years has never happened. It looks like February's average temperature wise will also leave a very low bar, one that a slightly below normal (1°-2°) March may be able to beat. It would be another first in the weird 2000's.

 

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2 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Lol. It appears she sings though.

 

I use I70 to delineates SE from Mid Atlantic and it's works most of the time. Sorta. Up here it's like there's a zone between I78 and 84 that could be either MA or NE. Unfortunately that puts the bulk of the population in a tough spot. If you're not a snow person head for Philly (sorry folks :lmao: )  and if you want to be within sight distance of real winter head for Kingston or Pittsfield.

The frustrating call from days of yore, “ How much for Philly?” ( and us ) only Mother Nature, if she can ever stop singing, has the answers. As always .....

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