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February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Want to learn, in that look would the cold air be trapped above the block? Or would the air under the block be good enough.

 

You would remove some of the PAC influence and you would create a ridge bridge over the top.

You would just need to shorten the wavelenghts like the day 10 Euro operational and some members of the ensembles see.

It would not be very cold - closer to N but LP would probably find it`s way S of you. 

Day 10 Euro OP ( prob not real ) would be an example

 

1582416000-M2doClVbI0w.png

1582459200-uyHlVfzZwa4.png

 

 

1582416000-BI6k6ShojF8.png

 

These day 10 maps never verify, but it`s an example of what we would need for it to snow in a hostile pattern here. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

I am glad to be heading up to Vermont in just over 24 hours. Excited to actually see some snow! It should be a great weekend but frigid up there. Even when it is gloomy, snow makes everything so much brighter, and brighter makes me happy. I need it. 

It's heavy freezing mist all the way up to Stowe now. Several ski areas are actually talking about how ugly the crust is getting on all exposed areas. By Saturday the areas that have been groomed should be good but firm, open natural areas will be frustrating and the only tree areas that will be skiable are under dense pines hardwoods will be out of the question for a while.

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

33.8° and dreary out.

There is snow on the grass this morning from last night but no idea how much fell. I suppose I can safely say half an inch and log it in the books bringing the seasonal to 20.5 inches.

Yup same here but 33.2. I think we're pretty close now on the seasonal total.

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11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The AO could hit +6 or better again after just breaking that record 2 days ago.

The north Atlantic system will likely be sub 920mb (record is 914mb) and if that AO is any indication then they'll be more severely low pressure storms in the near future. 

Iceland and NW Europe are gonna take a lot of beatings. 

One extreme after another.

 

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48 minutes ago, uncle W said:

so far this February is similar to some of the Aprils we got recently...rain almost every day with temps in the 40's and 50's...

Well, then March should be like May and April like June. I'm gonna go clean my golf clubs and put a new blade on the mower, I got the tennis racket restrung last week so that's good to go.

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We went from the highest 1/20 -2/12 snowfall to the lowest in just 4 years.

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Jan 20 to Feb 12
Missing Count
1 2020-02-12 0.0 0
2 1981-02-12 T 0
- 1980-02-12 T 0
- 1960-02-12 T 0
Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Jan 20 to Feb 12
Missing Count
1 2016-02-12 32.3 0
2 1961-02-12 28.5 0
3 1983-02-12 26.4 0
4 1994-02-12 25.8 0
5 2006-02-12 25.4 0
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24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We went from the highest 1/20 -2/12 snowfall to the lowest in just 4 years.

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Jan 20 to Feb 12
Missing Count
1 2020-02-12 0.0 0
2 1981-02-12 T 0
- 1980-02-12 T 0
- 1960-02-12 T 0
Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Jan 20 to Feb 12
Missing Count
1 2016-02-12 32.3 0
2 1961-02-12 28.5 0
3 1983-02-12 26.4 0
4 1994-02-12 25.8 0
5 2006-02-12 25.4 0

you realize the 2016 number is extremely misleading.....most of it was one 30 incher...

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1 hour ago, mikem81 said:

you realize the 2016 number is extremely misleading.....most of it was one 30 incher...

What difference does that make for total snowfall over the period? There was also an additional 8.1” at JFK during the first 15 days of February. Some areas picked up 10”+ with the 2-5-16 storm.

PLAINVIEW             10.5   110 PM  2/05  TRAINED SPOTTER
Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Jan 20 to Feb 15
Missing Count
1 2016-02-15 38.7 0
2 1961-02-15 33.4 0
3 2014-02-15 27.8 0
4 1978-02-15 27.2 0
5 1983-02-15 24.7 0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Jan 20 to Feb 15
Missing Count
1 2020-02-15 0.0 3
2 1981-02-15 T 0
- 1980-02-15 T 0

 

 

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6 hours ago, gravitylover said:

It's heavy freezing mist all the way up to Stowe now. Several ski areas are actually talking about how ugly the crust is getting on all exposed areas. By Saturday the areas that have been groomed should be good but firm, open natural areas will be frustrating and the only tree areas that will be skiable are under dense pines hardwoods will be out of the question for a while.

Yup same here but 33.2. I think we're pretty close now on the seasonal total.

Well you just hurt me. Put that knife in and turned. All the way up to Stowe?! 

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7 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Well you just hurt me. Put that knife in and turned. All the way up to Stowe?! 

Well hang in there. Take a look at the live cam. Thats snow now. I'd be more concerned with crowds this weekend. Presidents week is always busy. 

https://www.stowe.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/mountain-cams.aspx

 

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At 7 pm EST, the temperature was 10° in Chicago, 19° in Detroit, 33° in Pittsburgh, 43° in New York City,and 47° in Philadelphia. The cold that has now moved into the Great Lakes region will be pushing into the region overnight. As a result, readings will be much below normal tomorrow and on Saturday.

The lowest temperatures on Saturday morning could fall into the teens in New York City and Philadelphia. Readings in the lower teens and perhaps single digits are likely outside both cities.

But then winter's latest effort to take hold will fail again. Warmer air will quickly return. It is likely that the second half of February will be warmer than normal overall. During that time, cold shots will likely be of a short duration.

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through at least the first three weeks of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

On this date in 2014, Philadelphia received a daily record 10.4" snowfall. This winter, the city is mired in a deepening snow drought. Winter 2019-2020 is just the 7th winter on record that saw Philadelphia receive less than 2" seasonal snowfall through February 13. Mean total snowfall for the 6 prior cases was 3.8" vs. the historic mean figure of 22.6". In addition, 100% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 16% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1931-32 with 8.0" seasonal snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around February 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was -12.49 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.860.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 21, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the third week of February.

On February 12, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.121 (RMM). The February 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.211.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 50% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record.

Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-12 AO average is +2.926. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region.

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so far this winter NYC had only two days with a maximum 32 or lower...the record is two set in 1952-53...

winter...# of days max 32 or lower...

2019-20......2 so far...

1952-53......2

1997-98......3

2001-02......3

1931-32......5

2007-08......6

2011-12......6

1918-19......7

1990-91......7

1992-93......7

1974-75......8

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3 minutes ago, stemwinder said:

Thanks for the Philly info here, Don.  Your posts are always great.

Forgive me everyone if I do not know this, since my lack of interest is due to this awful winter: 

Has Central Park recorded a temp below 20 degrees F. so far this winter? Thanks.

16 in DEC...

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6 minutes ago, stemwinder said:

Thanks for the Philly info here, Don.  Your posts are always great.

Forgive me everyone if I do not know this, since my lack of interest is due to this awful winter: 

Has Central Park recorded a temp below 20 degrees F. so far this winter? Thanks.

The temperature fell to 16 degrees on December 19.

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2 hours ago, uncle W said:

so far this winter NYC had only two days with a maximum 32 or lower...the record is two set in 1952-53...

winter...# of days max 32 or lower...

2019-20......2 so far...

1952-53......2

1997-98......3

2001-02......3

1931-32......5

2007-08......6

2011-12......6

1918-19......7

1990-91......7

1992-93......7

1974-75......8

We'll know if this year's record(tie) will stand by Saturday. Just a disgraceful winter.

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