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February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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3 hours ago, PB-99 said:

We " may " head towards p8 to open March if this wave doesn`t die like the last one just did in late Jan.

Although there are more 6 inch snows at KNYC in March than in December, the book has already closed for me on this winter. 

 

Why bother. 

 

Phase diagram of the MJO index from the operational GFS

That's actually not quite true.

There have been 37, 6 inch or more events at KNYC in December and 31 in March. If you include April there are 38, 6 inch events from March 1 on which  does beat December by 1. I posted a breakdown in the banter thread by month.

 

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17 minutes ago, mob1 said:

The Euro has your answer (but you're not going to like it) 

 

8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

This is the 12Z EURO

No HP in place - which one is correct GFS or EURO - based on seasonal pattern so far I lean towards the EURO right now

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

Euro keeps trending south and east.

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1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

That's actually not quite true.

There have been 37, 6 inch or more events at KNYC in December and 31 in March. If you include April there are 38, 6 inch events from March 1 on which  does beat December by 1. I posted a breakdown in the banter thread by month.

 

 

 I believe either Don S or Uncle had shown where there were more in March than Dec.

I remember reading that in here. ( Possible It was combined as you say ) . 

 

 

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At 2:30 pm, temperatures were continuing to tumble after having set new daily record high readings in such locations as Islip, New York City (all three stations), Newark, Westhampton, and White Plains.

Some low pressure readings included:

Bridgeport: 28.73" (972.9 mb)
Danbury: 28.72" (972.6 mb)
Hartford: 28.65" (970.2 mb)
New York City: 28.82" (976.0 mb)
Newark: 28.80" (975.3 mb)
Poughkeepsie: 28.73" (972.9 mb)
White Plains: 28.74" (973.2 mb)

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13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Eps is ugly. Outside a cold shot next weekend This goose is cooked.

Ugly is being nice. If that’s correct, no high latitude blocking at all, we go zonal and semizonal flow at the end of this month and all of Canada gets flooded with Pacific maritime air

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Yes if you follow the eps.

There is a chance near the 14th. How many times have the eps been wrong ?

How many times has it snowed this winter?....yeah, I'll go with more futility.   EPS is the highest verifying model to answer your question.  Ignore it at your own risk

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Just now, Allsnow said:

It’s has its flaws but has been good overall. It’s first to correct in the medium range. The lower hgts moving into Ak is no good for us and has been a theme this winter. 

It has been awful but so has this pattern. Let's see which MJO is right between gefs and euro.

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2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:
26 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Eps is ugly. Outside a cold shot next weekend This goose is going to change in the next run. Literally changed every run and doesn’t make up its mind within 72 hours eps doesn’t know what it’s doing! 
 

FYP

Eps and euro have been horrible and yet people worship it.

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20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What ? Go away troll.

I would always be right if I forecasted warmth like you always do.

When I see a cold pattern, I'll go cold, the last 3 years have been an inferno...deal with it. Just because the EPS has a solution you don't like is not reason to call it a terrible model when it has the highest verification score....had the model showed an ice age I'm sure you'd be saying it's great.    

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If there is a material amelioration of the z500 from hostile to mediocre, it won't occur until very late in February and into March, as I've been delineating in my past couple of updates. So, I wouldn't expect to see anything too striking on the D10-15 EPS right now. I am still monitoring a few indicators [not related to the high frequency intraseasonal signal] which may improve near the end of February and beyond; however, that is not a guarantee. Until further notice, the RNA structure continues: cool NW US/Mid-west, warmer SE US.

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