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February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If the new JMA is correct, there will be no March pattern flip this year, it’s warm east cool west/-PNA from now right through the Equinox

I would actually enjoy a warm March and April if that's to be the case.    We'd likely see temps in the 60's and 70's if you take what we're getting now and extrapolate it forward

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11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If the new JMA is correct, there will be no March pattern flip this year, it’s warm east cool west/-PNA from now right through the Equinox

The PNA loses relevance after Feb 20. In fact snowstorms in the east are more common under -PNA from late Feb through March.

I'm more interested to see if the AO/NAO flips by then as they're still relevant until late March.

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2 hours ago, tdp146 said:

What do you think about snow vs. ice for the southern part of VT? Trying to decide if Okemo will be decent by Saturday or do they get hung up in sleet/ice too long. The norther part of the state looks to get dumped on but I only have enough time/energy for a day trip. 

I’m in the same boat, share house is at Stratton, but I do have an ikon and could head to sugar bush. I think southern Vermont is in for another ice storm. But 6” on the back side could make it fun. There is allot more snow up there right now then You would think. 

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Hi...

Just posted a preferred OBS only topic for wind damage on Friday.  All the posts herein on wind damage I agree with. 

I don't know if a Gravity Wave will occur with this low pressure development but some of the cues are there including an excessively strong jet into the ridge position ahead of a negatively tilting and shortening wave length, with what seems to me to be a shallow inversion north of a warm front.  I don't want to stretch the science, and others on here may not see enough precursor information in the modeling. I think we'll know by 11AM tomorrow if this will happen by checking upstream pressure fall-rise couplets, unusual wave like striations in some of the radar data (as i recall), some sort of upstream convection along with intense snowfall rates, for an hour or two, developing along the spine of the Appalachians PA northward.  I'll be working so after 6AM I cannot monitor. 

Also,  while its going be very windy for a time, not sure if I see this as a sting jet where I'd like to see a developing closed low at 500mb assist in the wraparound strong downward transfer.

2423P/6

 

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Wind advisories up for basically the entire area tomorrow afternoon.

From OKX late afternoon AFD:

With the low rapidly deepening as it moves away, quick pressure rises with the onset of cold air advection will produce gusty conditions in the afternoon and evening with gusts continuing well into the night. The strongest gusts will be in the afternoon and early evening
when modeled 850mb winds range mostly 45-65 kt. Will issue a wind advisory for all
zones 18z-00z. Gusts up to around 50 mph are anticipated. Even some coastal areas
may reach advisory criteria based on sustained winds of 30 mph.

 

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GFS Cross Section for 1pm Tomorrow:            Pressure looks to be 975mb, with 30-35 knot winds from WSW.        The LP is moving 50-60mph to the northeast itself, so seems like a short severe event and no more.       NYC is at the center.    Courtesy of AccuWeather.

https://proa.accuweather.com/pro/model-grads-pro.asp?mt=12&mod=gfs&gv0=C&hr=30&gs=crosssect&mv8=scheme:wind&map=conus&mv5=1000&mv6=300&mv7=40.6,-74.5,40.7,-73.5&uid=4060-74504070-7350wind

NAM has wild T swing of a steady 22 degree increase  during  the AM, [38-60] then a one hour 17 degree swoon around 1pm to 43 degrees.

This is an important message from NY Alert

HEADLINE: Wind Advisory issued February 06 at 3:37PM EST until February 07 at 7:00PM EST by NWS New York City - Upton

DESCRIPTION: ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY...
* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
expected.
* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
and southeast New York.
* WHEN...From 1 PM to 7 PM EST Friday.
* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
result.

INSTRUCTIONS: Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Issued By: NWS New York City - Upton (Long Island and New York City)

 

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2 hours ago, Barman49 said:

I have more faith in getting any snow in March than February which is just sad to think about.

Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk
 

It's not ideal but it has been the trend the last 5 years.

I've said this many times so some may be sick of hearing it, but 4 of the last 5 seasons in NYC March has been the snowiest month. Much rarer still, March has had a colder average temperature than February in 2 of the last 3 years.

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It's not ideal but it has been the trend the last 5 years.
I've said this many times so some may be sick of hearing it, but 4 of the last 5 seasons in NYC March has been the snowiest month. Much rarer still, March has had a colder average temperature than February in 2 of the last 3 years.
I know it's not ideal but like all you say in your post it will not surprise me in the least.

Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk

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A very warm first week of February is concluding on a wet and wild note. A rapidly intensifying storm will pass just to the north and west of Newark and New York City tomorrow morning. As it does so, it will likely pull very warm northward across eastern portions of the New York City area from the Southeast where temperatures flirted with and, in some cases, set daily record high temperatures today.

High temperatures included: Albany, GA: 80°; Atlanta: 72°; Charleston, SC: 74°; Columbia, SC: 75°; Macon, GA: 78° (old record: 77°, 1927); Savannah: 80°; and, Wilmington, NC: 76°. 

As a result, daily record high temperatures are likely in Islip, New Haven, and later Providence. There is also a chance that New York City's lowest remaining daily record high temperature of 54°, which was set in 1938, could be toppled. On account of the warmth, the February 1-7 mean temperature will very likely average near 44.0° in New York City.

Since 1869, New York City has had 10 prior cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above during the February 1-7 period. All 10 cases saw a warmer than normal February. The mean monthly temperature was 38.2°. Eight of those cases occurred during 1990 or later.

Overnight into tomorrow morning, the storm will likely bring 0.50" to 1.50" rain to the Middle Atlantic region. Some locally higher amounts are possible. Select rainfall amounts through 8 pm in the South included:

Asheville: 3.01" (old daily record: 1.85", 1897; 4th highest daily rainfall amount in February); Atlanta: 2.28"; Charlotte: 3.02" (old daily record: 2.91", 1955); and, Norfolk: 1.02".

As the storm moves past the region, strong winds will buffet the area. A period with gusts of 50 mph or above is possible from mid-morning into late afternoon.

The temperature will then fall rapidly during the evening. A cooler than normal, but not severely cold, weekend lies ahead. Moderation will again occur next week.

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic Cities through at least the first 10 days of February.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was +0.24 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.115.

During the second week of February, the AO could generally be at or above +2.000 following a peak of +4.000 or above. At the same time, the NAO will likely be positive and the PNA will likely be negative. Since 1950, there have been no 4" or greater snowstorms during February with such teleconnections in Philadelphia or New York City. Boston saw four, with the biggest being 10.2" on February 24-25, 1990. The biggest snowfalls in Philadelphia and New York City were 2.3" and 2.0" respectively.

Near or just after mid-month, some of the guidance brings the MJO into Phase 6. The MJO, its amplitude, and the state of the teleconnections will determine the overall pattern during the start of the second half of February.

During the February 10-29 period, when the MJO is in Phase 6 at low amplitude, the state of the PNA has the largest impact on temperatures in the Middle Atlantic region. For example, in New York City, the mean temperature for PNA+ cases during the 1981-2019 period was 34.1°. For PNA- cases, it was 41.7°. In contrast, when the MJO has an amplitude of 1.000 or above, the state of the AO is more important. During such cases, the mean temperature for AO+ cases was 40.9° while the mean temperature for AO- cases was 35.5°. The mean temperature for the entire February 10-29, 1981-2019 period was 36.5°.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 13. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the second week of February.

On February 5, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.045 (RMM). The February 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.684.

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47 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'll take my chances with a slider in this time frame. 

Granted the pattern isn't favorable for any type of snow event with the AO set to hit new records and such. 

Agreed, the theme has been to amp amp amp. Even if we get one of these to half work I’ll be happy. I have a new guy on my crew and would love to actually do a little snow removal

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34 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Agreed, the theme has been to amp amp amp. Even if we get one of these to half work I’ll be happy. I have a new guy on my crew and would love to actually do a little snow removal

Exactly. There is no -NAO block to stop the amp and cut. The AO is super positive to top it off and the PNA is negative, the horrific pattern for east coast snowstorms continues unabated since early December and we are approaching mid-February now. This pattern is reminiscent of the 1980’s

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