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February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models indicating a possible sting jet as the low passes by us while rapidly intensifying. 

Wind advisories likely behind the system with potential for more.

Friday afternoon definitely looks interesting. The 12Z UKMET showed some 60-70MPH wind gusts affecting NYC as the low races by just to the north. 00Z runs is even deeper with the low. Wouldn't be surprised to see some shallow convection with this, given lapse rates and a raging 185KT jet streak just offshore.

2146727104_ScreenShot2020-02-06at12_05_17AM.thumb.png.091d1f5ad7f3de4ab17f9d26690ae1c3.png

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2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Friday afternoon definitely looks interesting. The 12Z UKMET showed some 60-70MPH wind gusts affecting NYC as the low races by just to the north. 00Z runs is even deeper with the low. Wouldn't be surprised to see some shallow convection with this, given lapse rates and a raging 185KT jet streak just offshore.

2146727104_ScreenShot2020-02-06at12_05_17AM.thumb.png.091d1f5ad7f3de4ab17f9d26690ae1c3.png

Maybe this could spin up a few water spouts!

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4 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Maybe this could spin up a few water spouts!

This forecast sounding from LI shows the instability is based between 850-900mb.  The inversion is far too strong to get a water spout, but the combo of a pressure fall/rise couplet associated with the passing low/front in addition to strong cold air advection just behind the front will likely allow some of the 40-50KT winds to mix to the surface for a few hours. 

642639364_ScreenShot2020-02-06at12_13_36AM.thumb.png.b80ba0d92042f194c26789837e24732e.png

 

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4 hours ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Currently 33/19.    a section of Upton’s AFD below for some frozen types tonight.


NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Forecast is generally on track. Precipitation currently over the
Delmarva peninsula will make its way into the forecast area
around midnight, with some scattered precipitation moving in
beforehand. Pushed back the slight chance POPs about an hour
later than previously forecast based on mesoscale guidance.
Also, dew points are lower than previously forecast. Will have
to monitor how they progress over the next couple of hours for
possibility of brief wintry mix where rain is currently
forecast for the onset of the precipitation.

Winter weather advisories remain in effect for portions of interior
NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, and interior souther CT for a
period of freezing rain late tonight into Friday morning.

 

Yea I noticed dewpoints are still pretty low, theres room for evaporational cooling for sure, obviously will only have any real impact for the interior zones of the area.

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5 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

Friday afternoon definitely looks interesting. The 12Z UKMET showed some 60-70MPH wind gusts affecting NYC as the low races by just to the north. 00Z runs is even deeper with the low. Wouldn't be surprised to see some shallow convection with this, given lapse rates and a raging 185KT jet streak just offshore.

2146727104_ScreenShot2020-02-06at12_05_17AM.thumb.png.091d1f5ad7f3de4ab17f9d26690ae1c3.png

Models keep trending stronger with this, latest NAM is quite a doozy for the area. 

Not very often we see a sub 975 intensifying low pass through the city. 

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Good Thursday morning, Feb 6.  A few thoughts.

1) Thinking all that shallow cold air  near Albany might tend to drain south toward nw NJ next 24hours with surprise high terrain icing into tonight above 1500 feet near the Sussex Orange county border. Mesoscale n-ne flow with a wave out to the s of LI today-tonight. 

2) Agree w previous posters on damaging wind potential NJ-CT-MA ,maybe even se NYS ,with extreme low pres followed by very strong pres rises in the afternoon and slug of CAA.  Also, I'll try and check, but unsure if a gravity wave has been considered for our area tomorrow?  IF?? that would occur, wind gusts in places would easily exceed 60MPH.  

3) I'm getting some confidence back that at least ne/PA/nw NJ/interior se NYS should see a period or two of snow Sat night-early Sun (mid-Atlc states sw passage), and again Sun night (WAA). Plenty cold for sure...  and then does any meager snow accumulate in NYC (less than 1")?  I think we need 2 more days of model evolution see if any consensus develops but am pretty sure nw NJ high terrain will see some snow accumulation this weekend. 

617A/6

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35 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models keep trending stronger with this, latest NAM is quite a doozy for the area. 

Not very often we see a sub 975 intensifying low pass through the city. 

I tend to agree there could be some strong winds and damage with this. It’s been relatively calm for a couple weeks wind wise. I’m looking forward to enjoying the right side of the storm in Vermont tomorrow 

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models keep trending stronger with this, latest NAM is quite a doozy for the area. 

Not very often we see a sub 975 intensifying low pass through the city. 

Also the models have been pretty consistent with this for a few runs now. The NWS seems to be hesitant to ramp up the winds on Friday, although I noticed they are finally calling for some gusts in the 30s and 40s.

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1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Also the models have been pretty consistent with this for a few runs now. The NWS seems to be hesitant to ramp up the winds on Friday, although I noticed they are finally calling for some gusts in the 30s and 40s.

Mt. Holly now strongly indicating most of NJ at least should get into wind advisory criteria with 45-50mph gusts. 

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4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Mt. Holly now strongly indicating most of NJ at least should get into wind advisory criteria with 45-50mph gusts. 

I could see them issuing it for coastal areas. Not so much for inland areas. Gonna be brutal being sandblasted taking pictures of the surf tomorrow

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Mt. Holly now strongly indicating most of NJ at least should get into wind advisory criteria with 45-50mph gusts. 

Long Island could see higher gusts than that since it will be closer to the strongest LLJ near frontal passage. The warmer surface temperatures should really steepen the low level lapse rates for good mixing along and behind the cold front. Euro has highs in the low 60’s.

34A35259-2A57-4211-B1EA-A08502E8FA1A.thumb.png.f9e9662e460aec37c1cd75215848b409.png

CE0CD254-5D9D-4965-B4FF-108C9CA083F2.png.749a6e6fd0e77e9b38c33a572754c2be.png

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I tend to agree there could be some strong winds and damage with this. It’s been relatively calm for a couple weeks wind wise. I’m looking forward to enjoying the right side of the storm in Vermont tomorrow 

What do you think about snow vs. ice for the southern part of VT? Trying to decide if Okemo will be decent by Saturday or do they get hung up in sleet/ice too long. The norther part of the state looks to get dumped on but I only have enough time/energy for a day trip. 

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Long Island could see higher gusts than that since it will be closer to the strongest LLJ near frontal passage. The warmer surface surface temperatures should really steepen the low level lapse rates for good mixing along and behind the cold front. Euro has highs in the low 60’s.

Agree probably closer to 60-65mph for parts of LI.

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Through 9 am, New York City had received 0.43" rain. That brought year-to-date precipitation to 2.43", which is 1.87" below normal. However, another system will likely bring 0.50"-1.50" rain late today into tomorrow to much of the Middle Atlantic region. A few locations could see locally higher amounts in excess of 2.00".

That system was already producing heavy rain in parts of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley. As of 9:35 am, Knoxville, TN had picked up 2.22" rain. That set a new daily record for February 6. The previous record was 1.75", which was set in 2004. Over the past two days, Knoxville has received 5.04" rain.

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1 hour ago, tdp146 said:

What do you think about snow vs. ice for the southern part of VT? Trying to decide if Okemo will be decent by Saturday or do they get hung up in sleet/ice too long. The norther part of the state looks to get dumped on but I only have enough time/energy for a day trip. 

Take the extra 45 minutes, gain some elevation and latitude and head to Killington. Should be epic there. 

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46 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through 9 am, New York City had received 0.43" rain. That brought year-to-date precipitation to 2.43", which is 1.87" below normal. However, another system will likely bring 0.50"-1.50" rain late today into tomorrow to much of the Middle Atlantic region. A few locations could see locally higher amounts in excess of 2.00".

That system was already producing heavy rain in parts of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley. As of 9:35 am, Knoxville, TN had picked up 2.22" rain. That set a new daily record for February 6. The previous record was 1.75", which was set in 2004. Over the past two days, Knoxville has received 5.04" rain.

Looks fairly active for next few weeks, wouldn't be surprised if we flip to above normal before month ends. 

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