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February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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5 hours ago, NittanyWx said:

Just wanted to point out that the models today are setting a new record positive AO when I comb through my dataset.   I think this winter has done a phenomenal job of disproving a lot of analysis on the 'solar minimum' and it's perceived correlation to blocking.  I had my suspicions before this, but this winter is the final straw for me.

 

Solar activity and its attendant proxies have significant utility if one recognizes how to employ it. Those who argued solar minimum induced blocking for the present winter did so with incomplete knowledge. Solar forcing can modulate high latitude geopotential heights, but it must be analyzed in concert with other variables, such as the QBO for example. Thus, linear correlations between SSN and NAO values will be unimpressive because there are other variables masking and confounding. There is a false belief that low solar activity is both a necessary and sufficient condition for high latitude blocking, but that isn't veridical. It's a much more complex relationship. I did not think the suppressed solar activity would lead to a -NAO/AO this winter.

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6 hours ago, NittanyWx said:

Just wanted to point out that the models today are setting a new record positive AO when I comb through my dataset.   I think this winter has done a phenomenal job of disproving a lot of analysis on the 'solar minimum' and it's perceived correlation to blocking.  I had my suspicions before this, but this winter is the final straw for me.

For those who are interested, the February and all-time AO+ record is +5.911, which was set on February 26, 1990.

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6 hours ago, NittanyWx said:

Just wanted to point out that the models today are setting a new record positive AO when I comb through my dataset.   I think this winter has done a phenomenal job of disproving a lot of analysis on the 'solar minimum' and it's perceived correlation to blocking.  I had my suspicions before this, but this winter is the final straw for me.

 

12 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

Solar activity and its attendant proxies have significant utility if one recognizes how to employ it. Those who argued solar minimum induced blocking for the present winter did so with incomplete knowledge. Solar forcing can modulate high latitude geopotential heights, but it must be analyzed in concert with other variables, such as the QBO for example. Thus, linear correlations between SSN and NAO values will be unimpressive because there are other variables masking and confounding. There is a false belief that low solar activity is both a necessary and sufficient condition for high latitude blocking, but that isn't veridical. It's a much more complex relationship. I did not think the suppressed solar activity would lead to a -NAO/AO this winter.

Hello! Visiting from the Mid-ATL forum...We had a similar discussion during the Fall. One theory that was floated was in reference to a "lag" effect (I cannot remember what study was cited)--supposing that sometimes it was the winters after the minimum during which the minimum from the previous year may have affected blocking (for example, the previous solar minimum was listed as ending around December 2008. Of course it wasn't that winter but the following one that had the blocking. Now perhaps someone else may want to chime in on this "lag" theory.

 
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New York City's 9th warmest January on record concluded with another warmer than normal day and a monthly mean temperature of 39.1° (6.5° above normal).

In addition, Boston (38.0°) had its 3rd warmest January; Newark (38.7°) had its 9th warmest January; and, Philadelphia (38.9°) had its 14th warmest January.

January's notable warmth will be followed by a warmer to much warmer than normal February in the region. Exceptional February warmth has occurred in 3 of the last 10 winters in New York City:

2012: 40.9° mean temperature (3rd warmest)
2017: 41.6° mean temperature (2nd warmest)
2018: 42.0° mean temperature (1st warmest)

February will start mild with the first week of the month winding up much warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The February 1-7 mean temperature could average 40.0° or higher, much as it did during the January 1-7 period.

Somewhat colder air could return late in the first week of February or just afterward. However, Arctic air is unlikely. In addition, no significant snowfalls (6" or above) are likely through at least the first week of February for Washington, DC to New York City and the surrounding region.

Tomorrow, a storm moving offshore will likely intensify rapidly as it moves into and through the waters off New England. However, little or no snow is likely for the New York City area. There remains some possibility that a light accumulation could occur over parts of Cape Cod.

Based on the latest guidance, the likely seasonal snowfall distribution through January 31, will be < 20" at Boston; < 6" at New York City; < 3" at Philadelphia; and, < 2" at Washington, DC. There were 5 prior cases that met the above criteria for seasonal snowfall through January 31: 1895-96, 1918-19, 1931-32, 1949-50, and 1972-73. The single case with a colder than normal January (1895-96) saw 43.0" snow in the February-April period in New York City. All of the remaining four cases, all of which had a warmer than normal January, had less than 12.0" (mean: 4.6"; median 2.8"). Should blocking largely fail to develop in February, the risk of the very low snowfall for the remainder of winter 2019-20 would increase.

For historical perspective, 6% of winters since winter 1869-70 had less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City. For winters that concluded February with less than 10" seasonal snowfall to date, one-third went on to see less than 10" seasonal snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around January 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

For February 1981-2019, the following monthly temperature averages were recorded for cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly averaged 0.00°C to +0.75°C:

ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO+: NYC: 36.9°; Philadelphia: 37.6° (n=101 dates); EPO+ subset: NYC: 40.5°; Philadelphia: 40.8° (n=57 dates)
ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO-: NYC: 34.7°; Philadelphia: 34.9° (n=97 dates)

ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO+: NYC: 35.7°; Philadelphia: 36.6° (n=82 dates); EPO+ subset: NYC: 41.2°; Philadelphia: 42.0° (n=18 dates)
ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO-: NYC: 30.9°; Philadelphia: 31.6° (n=58 dates)

February 1981-2019: NYC: 35.8°; Philadelphia: 36.0°

The SOI was -2.82 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.489.

Upper stratospheric warming will commence near the beginning of February and continue through February 8. Strong Wave 2 activity will occur during the first week of February driving the warming of the upper stratosphere. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through at least the first week of February.

On January 30, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.131 (RMM). The January 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.101.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that February will be warmer than normal in New York City. There is a near 50% probability that February 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest February cases on record.

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First 16 days of February still averaging(18Z, GFS) a wild oats 46degs., or a solid 12degs. AN.      Guess  What!    No Snow to boot.       Even a Normal second half of the month would probably still leave us in the Top Ten.

                                                                                                                                          JANUARY   2020  

                                                                                                                                                       R.I.P.   SOON TO SHARE GRAVE WITH YOUNGER SISTER, FEBBIE.

                                                                                                        FOUGHT BRAVELY AGAINST GLOBAL WARMING, A RECALCITRANT POLAR VORTEX

                                                                                                                                                                  WRONG WAY MJO, ENSO MIX-UPS, -PNA, +AO,+NAO.+WPO,/EPO AND A DUMB MET.

                                                                                                                                  

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Good morning,  Wantage NJ had 0.1" snow last evening 830-930P. It melts today but am pretty sure many of us will see a little wet snow late tonight-early Sunday and possibly again late Sunday afternoon or evening. Minor accums probably restricted to the suburbs north and west. I wont be surprised to see a new 1/2 or even 1 inch total in hilly terrain of nw NJ by 11PM Sunday.  Haven't started a thread since its nothing much, and occurs the beginning of Feb so this thread works.  

Pretty strong northern stream short wave passage early Sunday, the one that didn't phase with the southeastern USA short wave... followed by rather strong warm advection Sunday evening,  are the probable event drivers for our area. As it turns out, while the multi modeled ensembles (EPS/GEFS)  since ~the 18th of January pegging ~Feb 1 were much too heavy on QPF, it seems their signal wont end up a total bust with minor snow nw suburbs and just about everyone in our forum coverage area having had measurable precipitation between 8PM last night (31st) and 11PM Sunday Feb 2.  605A/1

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The next 8 days are averaging 44degs., or 11degs.AN.

42* here at 6am.        44* by Noon.

The first 17 days of February(06Z,GFS) are averaging 41degs., or 7degs. AN with No Snow.       Always cold at tail end which now has slipped forward a few days already as I follow this debacle.

Anyone know how Moscow ended up for January?      December was +14, apparently and January seemed even warmer 10 days ago.     Looks like they have about 1 BN day themselves over the next 15 (Feb. 7,8).

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February is getting off to a mild and foggy start around the region. The low of 37 in NYC is 10 degrees above normal. There have only been 22 days since December 1st that NYC dropped below 32 degrees. This is the 5th lowest number of days on record.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature < 32 Dec 1 to Jan 31
Missing Count
1 2002-01-31 18 0
- 1932-01-31 18 0
2 1998-01-31 19 0
3 2016-01-31 20 0
4 2012-01-31 21 0
5 2020-01-31 22 0
- 2017-01-31 22 0
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2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Good morning,  Wantage NJ had 0.1" snow last evening 830-930P. It melts today but am pretty sure many of us will see a little wet snow late tonight-early Sunday and possibly again late Sunday afternoon or evening. Minor accums probably restricted to the suburbs north and west. I wont be surprised to see a new 1/2 or even 1 inch total in hilly terrain of nw NJ by 11PM Sunday.  Haven't started a thread since its nothing much, and occurs the beginning of Feb so this thread works.  

Pretty strong northern stream short wave passage early Sunday, the one that didn't phase with the southeastern USA short wave... followed by rather strong warm advection Sunday evening,  are the probable event drivers for our area. As it turns out, while the multi modeled ensembles (EPS/GEFS)  since ~the 18th of January pegging ~Feb 1 were much too heavy on QPF, it seems their signal wont end up a total bust with minor snow nw suburbs and just about everyone in our forum coverage area having had measurable precipitation between 8PM last night (31st) and 11PM Sunday Feb 2.  605A/1

Dusting of snow in highland lakes!!

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12 hours ago, Allsnow said:

I did lol

Snowless winter for NYC is coming. Follow the trends

 

Heck, other than that mid Jan storm and a storm last march, NYC hasnt had snow on the ground for more than a day in 2 years.

We heard this was coming for 30 years, and all at once it MAY have showed up under our noses

Dec 22-> with no end in sight to the warmth

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26 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Snowless winter for NYC is coming. Follow the trends

 

Heck, other than that mid Jan storm and a storm last march, NYC hasnt had snow on the ground for more than a day in 2 years.

We heard this was coming for 30 years, and all at once it MAY have showed up under our noses

Dec 22-> with no end in sight to the warmth

Tough to draw a conclusion from two duds in a row.  There have been plenty of low snowfall two year periods in our local climate records.  
 

That said, I do think it’s eventually coming and will be from our own doing.  

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32 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Snowless winter for NYC is coming. Follow the trends

 

Heck, other than that mid Jan storm and a storm last march, NYC hasnt had snow on the ground for more than a day in 2 years.

We heard this was coming for 30 years, and all at once it MAY have showed up under our noses

Dec 22-> with no end in sight to the warmth

We had a few inches so it can't  be snowless.

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22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s why it will be interesting to see how next winter turns out. Our last 2 consecutive years with below normal snowfall were 06-07 and 07-08. We quickly rebounded after that. But getting 3 down years in a row could be an indication of a new extended lower snowfall period. We saw this in the late 90’s to early 00’s and in the 80’s to early 90’s. Also during the 1950’s.

Unfortunately, if we do not see a major change in sea surface temps down in tropics we could be stuck in this pattern long term. I still think March produces as the MJO reality’s change at that time 

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4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

3 different waves yes, but absolutely nothing at all like what the GFS shows with over a foot of snow. Then the UKMET goes to a huge torch 

Yes the third wave is very warm on the UK and we all know the GFS is not all snow there's a lot of sleet and freezing rain on their snowfall Maps

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COUNTING YOUR INCHES BEFORE THEY HATCH..................Mother Nature will get you for that!

I think these snow possibilities are for NowCasting, when it comes to the City, especially for me.

Maybe if timing is at night.    The BN air never takes over in the northeast      Quick melting seems likely too.  

  Remember in the song Cherry Hill Park:     IN THE DAYTIME MARY HILL WAS A TEASER,   BUT COME THE  NIGHT  SHE WAS SUCH A PLEASER.

While we may get 3" LEQ, only 0.5" is actually being shown as coming when the 850mb T's are  < 0C.

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